MILINKEVICH, BACK IN BELARUS, TOUTS SOLIDARITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000951

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH, BACK IN BELARUS, TOUTS SOLIDARITY AND
INFORMATION IN FIGHTING REPRESSION

REF: 431

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Charge on August 29, United
Democratic Forces (UDF) leader Milinkevich argued that the
opposition remains united and said he would be publicly
involved in the run up to the local elections. He and his
wife spoke of their efforts to create solidarity among
Belarusians and to increase the flow of independent
information in order to overcome the fear imposed by the
Lukashenko regime. Milinkevich also repeated earlier
concerns about the threat a Union State with Russia would
pose to Belarusian independence. End summary.


2. (SBU) United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition leader
Aleksandr Milinkevich and his wife, Inna Kulei, met with
Charge and Poloff at the Embassy on August 29. The arrival
of Milinkevich and Kulei was delayed by about 20 minutes;
they had to travel by taxi as their tires had been slashed.

Using Local Elections to Engage Belarusians
--------------


3. (C) UDF leader Milinkevich acknowledged that winning local
elections is not possible under the Lukashenko regime, but
encouraged opposition participation in all elections because
they serve as opportunities to influence the hearts and minds
of the Belarusian people. Milinkevich told Charge that the
key UDF leaders are generally in agreement on strategies and
tactics for taking full advantage of the local elections.
Specifically, opposition parties are taking steps to ensure
there is no competition between democratic candidates, and
each candidate will have both a local and a national
platform. The national platform will include a warning about
the threat to Belarusian independence. In response to
Charge's question, Milinkevich said that he would be taking
an active role in the local elections in support of
individual candidates.

Increasing Information Access Key to Overcoming Fear
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Echoing the sentiments that his senior opposition
colleagues expressed in recent meetings, Milinkevich claimed
the lack of accessible, independent information remains one
of the key problems in combating the sense of fear that
consumes Belarusians. He asserted that small local
newspapers are the most effective means for disseminating
independent information in Belarus and informed Charge that
the opposition can independently print and distribute these
publications if the USG could provide supplies and gasoline.
In addition, Milinkevich praised USG financial support of
independent media but suggested additional oversight of donor
coordination, both within the USG and with the EU, to
allocate funding for larger projects better and to avoid
duplication of smaller ones.

Strengthening Solidarity to Fight Repression
--------------


5. (C) Milinkevich's wife and head of the Committee for the
Defense of the Politically Repressed, Inna Kulei, stressed to
Charge the importance of increasing solidarity among
Belarusians as an additional measure to overcome the fear
imposed by the Lukashenko regime. She stated that the "Songs
of Freedom" opposition concert on August 25 on Bangalore
Square was a test to gauge the level of interest of
activists. According to Kulei, the opposition will use the
planned September 16 "Great Jeans Fest" to stress the
importance of freedom and independence. She noted that the
Jeans Fest will be held on the anniversary of the first "Day
of Solidarity" and will be the final Day of Solidarity event.
Both Kulei and Milinkevich plan to participate in the Jeans
Fest. (Note: Kulei's statement that the Stepember 16
festival will mark the final Day of Solidarity event was news
to us. We will follow up with Day of Solidarity organizers
who have been organizing small events on the 16th of each
month since September 2005.
End note.)


6. (C) Kulei added that opposition leaders are also working
together to organize a "Day of Prayer for Belarus" to express
solidarity with religious leaders and activists who have been
repressed by the GOB. Although the plans for the event are
still in their nascent stages, Kulei said the committee is in
the process of seeking out clergy and religious leaders.


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7. (C) Kulei told Charge that her Committee for the Defense
of the Politically Repressed continues to work on its
employment, study abroad and rehabilitation programs
(reftel). She expressed her gratitude for the monetary and
moral support from U.S. citizens that the committee received
for victims of political repression. She explained that the
committee is trying to formulate a "Family-to-Family Program"
to connect Belarusian families with foreign families who want
to provide financial or moral support to victims. Charge
assured Kulei that the Embassy is actively supporting
democratic advocates, citing his presence at the Partnership
trial and his efforts to visit imprisoned Partnership
activists and former presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin
in jail.

Union State with Russia Eliminates Belarusian Independence
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Milinkevich expressed his grave concern over the
threat that a Union State with Russia presents to Belarusian
independence. According to him, while Belarusians generally
favor economic cooperation with Russia, the vast majority of
average Belarusians are against a formal union with Russia.
Not only do Belarusians believe that their standard of living
is better in Belarus than in Russia, but they fear Russian
oligarchs and crime will swallow up Belarus. Additionally,
Belarusians do not want their relatives being sent to fight a
Russian war in Chechnya.


9. (C) Milinkevich told Charge that he worries that the
opposition's years of work would be made inconsequential if
Belarus lost its independence in a single day with a
referendum on a Union State. Therefore, the opposition is
committed to distributing information on the consequences of
a Belarusian-Russian Union State as widely as possible and to
encourage people to protest any further progress of the Union
State. Charge assured Milinkevich that the U.S. would not
recognize the results of any referendum on the subject of
Belarus' sovereignty as conducting a referendum
democratically is impossible under the current circumstances.


Milinkevich's Take on Carrots and Sticks
--------------


10. (C) Milinkevich also expressed concern about possible EU
engagement of Lukashenko. While not opposed to slightly
opening the door to Belarus, Milinkevich warned that EU
countries should proceed cautiously and force Lukashenko to
prove his intentions by making the first move. Milinkevich
warned that the GOB would propagandize unconditional
engagement as a signal of international legitimacy and
recognition. Milinkevich also cautioned against the
imposition of general economic sanctions. Charge reassured
Milinkevich that the U.S. was not considering economic
sanctions and has no plans to reach out to the Lukashenko
regime. Charge further emphasized ongoing USG efforts to
target the regime through asset freezes and visa bans.

Travel Outside of Belarus
--------------


11. (C) Milinkevich told Charge that he plans to travel in
September to Finland, which holds the EU presidency, to
caution Finnish leaders on the potential consequences of
engaging Lukashenko; he feels that the Finns may be a bit
soft on Belarus. Charge and Milinkevich discussed the
possibility of a Washington visit for the senior UDF
leadership (Milinkevich, Lebedko, Kalyakin, and Vyachorka).
Milinkevich agreed that travel to U.S. should be undertaken
jointly and should wait until January to allow the UDF to
focus on the upcoming local elections. He also said that he
has a new passport.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Milinkevich affirmed his fellow UDF colleagues'
earlier statements to Charge that differences of opinions
within the coalition leadership are not eclipsing cooperation
in the lead up to the local elections. Postponement of most
other international travel until after the local elections
demonstrates progress towards galvanizing domestic rather
than international support. It was also encouraging to hear
the opposition's plans to reinitiate civic protests and to
seek new partners, both of which are steps that were long
overdue. That said, the proof will be in the pudding:
Milinkevich, now that he is back in the country, must now

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demonstrate public and private leadership in order to keep
the United Democratic Forces truly united.
Moore