Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK911
2006-08-21 13:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 18, 2006
how-toVZCZCXRO6285 RR RUEHAST DE RUEHSK #0911/01 2331336 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 211336Z AUG 06 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4954 INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000911
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET EAGR ENRG KTDB BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 18, 2006
REF: Minsk 692
MINSK 00000911 001.2 OF 003
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000911
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET EAGR ENRG KTDB BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 18, 2006
REF: Minsk 692
MINSK 00000911 001.2 OF 003
1. (U) The following are brief items of interest compiled by
Embassy Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
- Lukashenko Stipulates Eurasian Customs Union (para. 2)
- Belarus and Ukraine Discuss Cooperation (para. 3)
- Lukashenko Greets Indian, South Korean Leaders (para. 4)
LOCAL ELECTIONS
--------------
- GOB Confirms Date of Local Elections (para. 5)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
- Neo-Nazi Group Denies Connection to Dummy Explosive (para. 6)
- Opposition Youths Detained in Vitebsk on Solidarity Day (para. 7)
- Security Services Oversee Grain Harvest (para. 8)
TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
- DuPont Ponders Opening a Representative Office in Minsk (para. 9)
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS
--------------
- Belarus' GDP Up Ten Percent on Year (para. 10)
- National Bank: 18 Percent Growth in Money Supply (para. 11)
- GOB Reports Hiring 411,000, Dismissing 399,000 (para. 12)
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 13)
--------------
International Relations
--------------
2. (U) Lukashenko Stipulates Customs Union, Meets with Putin
On August 17, the heads of state of the Eurasian Economic Community
(EURASEC) concluded their summit in the Russian resort city of
Sochi. The EURASEC member states formally tasked Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia with designing a customs union within EURASEC
and signed a document formalizing Uzbekistan's accession to the
Collective Security Treaty Organization. President Lukashenko
predicted the customs union could be created within 18 months, but
stated that Belarus would join the union only on condition that
EURASEC member states enjoyed equal conditions. Lukashenko also
asserted that the establishment of a customs union within EURASEC
would not prevent the member states from joining the World Trade
Organization. On August 19, Presidents Putin and Lukashenko met at
Putin's residence in Sochi to discuss the Union State of Belarus
and Russia. After the meeting, both presidents reported they have
more to discuss.
3. (U) Belarus and Ukraine Discuss Cooperation
On August 15, Belarusian Ambassador to Ukraine Valentin Velichko
met with Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to
discuss bilateral economic and political relations. Azarov
declared Ukraine is ready for constructive political dialog with
Belarus and is still interested in the integration of the members
states of the Commonwealth of Independent States despite Ukraine's
efforts to join the EU. He noted that Belarusian-Ukrainian trade
is projected to total more than USD two billion in 2006. Azarov
also called for a bilateral agreement to liberalize border
crossings for employees of the Chernobyl nuclear plant who reside
in Ukraine's northeastern city of Slavutych and for continuing
repairs of the containment structures around Chernobyl's exploded
reactor.
4. (U) Lukashenko Greets Indian, South Korean Leaders
On August 15, President Lukashenko sent greetings to the heads of
state of India and South Korea on their national holidays.
President Lukashenko reportedly expressed hope Belarus and South
Korea would continue what Lukashenko described as their "mutually
beneficial" cooperation. In his message to Indian President Abdul
Kalam on the anniversary of India's Independence, Lukashenko
described Indian-Belarusian political and economic cooperation as
"fruitful." On August 16, the two countries signed an agreement to
resume sales of Belarusian potash to India.
--------------
Local Elections
MINSK 00000911 002.2 OF 003
--------------
5. (U) GOB Confirms Date of Local Elections
On August 16, Central Election Commission Head Lidiya Yermoshina
confirmed elections for local municipal councils will be held
January 14, 2007. She ruled out an early election date, observing
that holding elections before Christmas would likely reduce voter
turnout. Although President Lukashenko had tentatively endorsed
scheduling the elections for January, opposition leaders announced
last month that they were preparing for an early election scenario.
Approximately 24,000 seats on more than 1,600 municipal councils
will be open to challenge.
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
6. (U) Neo-Nazi Group Denies Connection to Dummy Explosive
On August 17, representatives of the neo-Nazi Russian National
Unity (RNE) group denied planting a dummy explosive device at the
entrance to the opposition Belarusian Popular Front (BPF)'s
headquarters in central Minsk. On August 16, BPF members
discovered the fake explosive adorned with the RNE emblem, which
resembles a swastika, and filled with RNE leaflets. A week
earlier, the independent newspaper "Vitebsk Kuryer" received a
letter in which RNE leaders threatened to drive the paper out of
business. In June, the leader of the Vitebsk chapter of the United
Civic Party received a similar letter from RNE.
7. (U) "Partnership" Election Observers Appeal Prison Sentences
On August 14, the defense teams of imprisoned independent election
observers Nikolai Astreiko and Timofei Dranchuk filed appeals with
the Minsk City Court. Dranchuk's lawyers seek to overturn the
conviction, while those of Astreiko merely petitioned the court to
mitigate their client's sentence. On August 4, Judge Leonid
Yasinovich sentenced Astreiko to two years and Dranchuk to one year
in prison for allegedly operating an unregistered organization
called "Partnership," which gained prominence for its impartial
observation of Belarus' 2004 parliamentary elections and
referendum. According to attorneys for both Dranchuk and
Astreiko, Judge Yasinovich downgraded the government's charges
without commensurately shortening their sentences. The Minsk City
Court has two months to consider the appeals.
8. (U) Opposition Youths Detained in Vitebsk on Solidarity Day
On August 16, police detained ten youths in the eastern city of
Gomel and twelve in the northern city of Vitebsk for participating
in a candle-lighting ceremony held as part of the monthly
"Solidarity Day" commemoration. Several dozen people had assembled
near a monument to St. Cyril of Turov in Gomel and dispersed a few
minutes later. However, plainclothes police officers brought ten
activists to the district police station to record their identities
and released them without charges an hour later. In Vitebsk, a
dozen activists gathered at the Cross of St. Euphrosyne and lit
candles. Police recorded the identities of the twelve youths whom
authorities detained but released them thirty minutes later after
the officers took down their passport data. The remaining youths
had their ID documents checked on the street. Opposition activists
in Belarus have been observing Solidarity Day since September 16,
2005, which marked the sixth anniversary of the disappearance of
opposition leaders Viktor Gonchar and Anatoliy Krasovskiy.
9. (U) Security Services Oversee Grain Harvest
On August 13, the Belarusian Ministry of Interior Affairs (MVD)
reported its personnel are overseeing the ongoing grain harvest at
local farms throughout Belarus. The MVD has ordered police to
conduct random inspections at facilities where reaped grain,
fertilizers, fuel, lubricants and equipment are stored, and inspect
vehicles involved in harvesting. Moreover, police also escort
grain combines on their way to and from fields to prevent road
accidents involving the harvesters, and post warning signs. Top
MVD officials purportedly hold weekly conferences to evaluate the
effectiveness of police officers in assisting with the harvest.
--------------
Trade and Investment
--------------
10. (SBU) DuPont Ponders Opening a Representative Office in Minsk
DuPont's Eastern Europe Regional Director John Shmorhun told
Pol/Econoffs his company may open an office in Minsk in the near
future. According to Shmorhun, DuPont already sells more than USD
10 million worth of products in Belarus in each of several sectors,
MINSK 00000911 003.2 OF 003
including industrial paints, insulation and refrigerants. In
addition to expanding sales of these areas, DuPont hopes to tap the
local market for agricultural inputs (hybrid seeds and
fertilizers),road construction (geotextiles and bitumen additives)
and technologies for oil and gas refineries.
--------------
Domestic Economics
--------------
10. (U) Belarus' GDP Up Ten Percent on Year
On August 16, Belarus' Ministry of Statistics claimed Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) reached USD 19.6 billion as of August 1,
2006, up 10.1 percent from the same point last year. In 2005,
Belarus' GDP reportedly grew 9.2 percent on the year USD.
11. (U) National Bank Reports 18.6 Percent Growth in Money Supply
On August 17, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) reported the
Belarusian money supply grew by 18.6 percent in the first six
months of 2006 to 10,200 billion rubles as of July 1, while
consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent in the period. The amount of
cash in circulation increased by 23.3 percent to 2.5 trillion
rubles and accounted for 24.4 percent of the money supply on July
1, down from 25.2 percent on July 1, 2005. The amount of non-cash
money on July 1, 2006 totaled 7.7 trillion rubles, or 75.6 percent
of the money supply.
12. (U) GOB Reports Hiring 411,000, Dismissing 399,000
On August 17, Belarus' Ministry of Statistics for Analysis reported
government-owned organizations and companies hired 411,000 people
and dismissed 399,000 in the first six months of 2006. Almost 80
percent of those dismissed reportedly left voluntarily. Seven
percent were fired for absenteeism and 1.7 percent as a result of
lay offs. Almost 7,500 were dismissed for alcohol intoxication at
work, ostensibly an 11 percent decrease from last year.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
13. (U) In a display of cognitive dissonance reminiscent of the
Cold War, pro-government Communist Party of Belarus (CPB) General
Secretary Georgiy Atamanov offered the state daily newspaper
SIPDIS
"Respublika" the following observation regarding his recent meeting
with Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff (reftel):
"Unlike the opposition which is spending most of its time abroad,
the pro-Government communists know the real state of things in
Belarus and that is why it is more effective to deal with them than
with the opposition. American diplomats are very educated
specialists who know Russian very well. Therefore, deep down in
their souls they understand that the opposition lies to them but
their ideological and political position does not allow them to
look for the truth."
Moore
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET EAGR ENRG KTDB BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - August 18, 2006
REF: Minsk 692
MINSK 00000911 001.2 OF 003
1. (U) The following are brief items of interest compiled by
Embassy Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------
- Lukashenko Stipulates Eurasian Customs Union (para. 2)
- Belarus and Ukraine Discuss Cooperation (para. 3)
- Lukashenko Greets Indian, South Korean Leaders (para. 4)
LOCAL ELECTIONS
--------------
- GOB Confirms Date of Local Elections (para. 5)
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------
- Neo-Nazi Group Denies Connection to Dummy Explosive (para. 6)
- Opposition Youths Detained in Vitebsk on Solidarity Day (para. 7)
- Security Services Oversee Grain Harvest (para. 8)
TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------
- DuPont Ponders Opening a Representative Office in Minsk (para. 9)
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS
--------------
- Belarus' GDP Up Ten Percent on Year (para. 10)
- National Bank: 18 Percent Growth in Money Supply (para. 11)
- GOB Reports Hiring 411,000, Dismissing 399,000 (para. 12)
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 13)
--------------
International Relations
--------------
2. (U) Lukashenko Stipulates Customs Union, Meets with Putin
On August 17, the heads of state of the Eurasian Economic Community
(EURASEC) concluded their summit in the Russian resort city of
Sochi. The EURASEC member states formally tasked Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia with designing a customs union within EURASEC
and signed a document formalizing Uzbekistan's accession to the
Collective Security Treaty Organization. President Lukashenko
predicted the customs union could be created within 18 months, but
stated that Belarus would join the union only on condition that
EURASEC member states enjoyed equal conditions. Lukashenko also
asserted that the establishment of a customs union within EURASEC
would not prevent the member states from joining the World Trade
Organization. On August 19, Presidents Putin and Lukashenko met at
Putin's residence in Sochi to discuss the Union State of Belarus
and Russia. After the meeting, both presidents reported they have
more to discuss.
3. (U) Belarus and Ukraine Discuss Cooperation
On August 15, Belarusian Ambassador to Ukraine Valentin Velichko
met with Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to
discuss bilateral economic and political relations. Azarov
declared Ukraine is ready for constructive political dialog with
Belarus and is still interested in the integration of the members
states of the Commonwealth of Independent States despite Ukraine's
efforts to join the EU. He noted that Belarusian-Ukrainian trade
is projected to total more than USD two billion in 2006. Azarov
also called for a bilateral agreement to liberalize border
crossings for employees of the Chernobyl nuclear plant who reside
in Ukraine's northeastern city of Slavutych and for continuing
repairs of the containment structures around Chernobyl's exploded
reactor.
4. (U) Lukashenko Greets Indian, South Korean Leaders
On August 15, President Lukashenko sent greetings to the heads of
state of India and South Korea on their national holidays.
President Lukashenko reportedly expressed hope Belarus and South
Korea would continue what Lukashenko described as their "mutually
beneficial" cooperation. In his message to Indian President Abdul
Kalam on the anniversary of India's Independence, Lukashenko
described Indian-Belarusian political and economic cooperation as
"fruitful." On August 16, the two countries signed an agreement to
resume sales of Belarusian potash to India.
--------------
Local Elections
MINSK 00000911 002.2 OF 003
--------------
5. (U) GOB Confirms Date of Local Elections
On August 16, Central Election Commission Head Lidiya Yermoshina
confirmed elections for local municipal councils will be held
January 14, 2007. She ruled out an early election date, observing
that holding elections before Christmas would likely reduce voter
turnout. Although President Lukashenko had tentatively endorsed
scheduling the elections for January, opposition leaders announced
last month that they were preparing for an early election scenario.
Approximately 24,000 seats on more than 1,600 municipal councils
will be open to challenge.
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
6. (U) Neo-Nazi Group Denies Connection to Dummy Explosive
On August 17, representatives of the neo-Nazi Russian National
Unity (RNE) group denied planting a dummy explosive device at the
entrance to the opposition Belarusian Popular Front (BPF)'s
headquarters in central Minsk. On August 16, BPF members
discovered the fake explosive adorned with the RNE emblem, which
resembles a swastika, and filled with RNE leaflets. A week
earlier, the independent newspaper "Vitebsk Kuryer" received a
letter in which RNE leaders threatened to drive the paper out of
business. In June, the leader of the Vitebsk chapter of the United
Civic Party received a similar letter from RNE.
7. (U) "Partnership" Election Observers Appeal Prison Sentences
On August 14, the defense teams of imprisoned independent election
observers Nikolai Astreiko and Timofei Dranchuk filed appeals with
the Minsk City Court. Dranchuk's lawyers seek to overturn the
conviction, while those of Astreiko merely petitioned the court to
mitigate their client's sentence. On August 4, Judge Leonid
Yasinovich sentenced Astreiko to two years and Dranchuk to one year
in prison for allegedly operating an unregistered organization
called "Partnership," which gained prominence for its impartial
observation of Belarus' 2004 parliamentary elections and
referendum. According to attorneys for both Dranchuk and
Astreiko, Judge Yasinovich downgraded the government's charges
without commensurately shortening their sentences. The Minsk City
Court has two months to consider the appeals.
8. (U) Opposition Youths Detained in Vitebsk on Solidarity Day
On August 16, police detained ten youths in the eastern city of
Gomel and twelve in the northern city of Vitebsk for participating
in a candle-lighting ceremony held as part of the monthly
"Solidarity Day" commemoration. Several dozen people had assembled
near a monument to St. Cyril of Turov in Gomel and dispersed a few
minutes later. However, plainclothes police officers brought ten
activists to the district police station to record their identities
and released them without charges an hour later. In Vitebsk, a
dozen activists gathered at the Cross of St. Euphrosyne and lit
candles. Police recorded the identities of the twelve youths whom
authorities detained but released them thirty minutes later after
the officers took down their passport data. The remaining youths
had their ID documents checked on the street. Opposition activists
in Belarus have been observing Solidarity Day since September 16,
2005, which marked the sixth anniversary of the disappearance of
opposition leaders Viktor Gonchar and Anatoliy Krasovskiy.
9. (U) Security Services Oversee Grain Harvest
On August 13, the Belarusian Ministry of Interior Affairs (MVD)
reported its personnel are overseeing the ongoing grain harvest at
local farms throughout Belarus. The MVD has ordered police to
conduct random inspections at facilities where reaped grain,
fertilizers, fuel, lubricants and equipment are stored, and inspect
vehicles involved in harvesting. Moreover, police also escort
grain combines on their way to and from fields to prevent road
accidents involving the harvesters, and post warning signs. Top
MVD officials purportedly hold weekly conferences to evaluate the
effectiveness of police officers in assisting with the harvest.
--------------
Trade and Investment
--------------
10. (SBU) DuPont Ponders Opening a Representative Office in Minsk
DuPont's Eastern Europe Regional Director John Shmorhun told
Pol/Econoffs his company may open an office in Minsk in the near
future. According to Shmorhun, DuPont already sells more than USD
10 million worth of products in Belarus in each of several sectors,
MINSK 00000911 003.2 OF 003
including industrial paints, insulation and refrigerants. In
addition to expanding sales of these areas, DuPont hopes to tap the
local market for agricultural inputs (hybrid seeds and
fertilizers),road construction (geotextiles and bitumen additives)
and technologies for oil and gas refineries.
--------------
Domestic Economics
--------------
10. (U) Belarus' GDP Up Ten Percent on Year
On August 16, Belarus' Ministry of Statistics claimed Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) reached USD 19.6 billion as of August 1,
2006, up 10.1 percent from the same point last year. In 2005,
Belarus' GDP reportedly grew 9.2 percent on the year USD.
11. (U) National Bank Reports 18.6 Percent Growth in Money Supply
On August 17, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) reported the
Belarusian money supply grew by 18.6 percent in the first six
months of 2006 to 10,200 billion rubles as of July 1, while
consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent in the period. The amount of
cash in circulation increased by 23.3 percent to 2.5 trillion
rubles and accounted for 24.4 percent of the money supply on July
1, down from 25.2 percent on July 1, 2005. The amount of non-cash
money on July 1, 2006 totaled 7.7 trillion rubles, or 75.6 percent
of the money supply.
12. (U) GOB Reports Hiring 411,000, Dismissing 399,000
On August 17, Belarus' Ministry of Statistics for Analysis reported
government-owned organizations and companies hired 411,000 people
and dismissed 399,000 in the first six months of 2006. Almost 80
percent of those dismissed reportedly left voluntarily. Seven
percent were fired for absenteeism and 1.7 percent as a result of
lay offs. Almost 7,500 were dismissed for alcohol intoxication at
work, ostensibly an 11 percent decrease from last year.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
13. (U) In a display of cognitive dissonance reminiscent of the
Cold War, pro-government Communist Party of Belarus (CPB) General
Secretary Georgiy Atamanov offered the state daily newspaper
SIPDIS
"Respublika" the following observation regarding his recent meeting
with Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff (reftel):
"Unlike the opposition which is spending most of its time abroad,
the pro-Government communists know the real state of things in
Belarus and that is why it is more effective to deal with them than
with the opposition. American diplomats are very educated
specialists who know Russian very well. Therefore, deep down in
their souls they understand that the opposition lies to them but
their ideological and political position does not allow them to
look for the truth."
Moore