Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK904
2006-08-18 13:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

BUILDING THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONITORING NEEDED

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE BO 
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VZCZCXRO4536
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0904/01 2301341
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181341Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4945
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1260
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000904 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/UMB, EUR/ACE, EUR/RPM, AND DRL
STATE FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE BO
SUBJECT: BUILDING THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONITORING NEEDED
FOR JANUARY 2007 LOCAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000904

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/UMB, EUR/ACE, EUR/RPM, AND DRL
STATE FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE BO
SUBJECT: BUILDING THE CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONITORING NEEDED
FOR JANUARY 2007 LOCAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 8.

Summary
--------------


2. (C) On August 17, the Belarusian Central Election
Committee confirmed that the municipal elections will be held
on January 14, 2007. The democratic opposition believes, and
we agree that these elections are the best opportunity to
intensify the international spotlight on the Lukashenko
regime in the near future. Post supports a plan proposed by
a well-established independent NGO to conduct election
monitoring, and a separate initiative by the OSCE Minsk
Office to involve OSCE'S Office of Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights as well. In addition to building the
opposition's momentum and keeping the pressure on the
Lukashenko regime, USG support of independent election
observation would: 1) prevent gross election fraud from going
undetected and 2) provide a clear measure of support for the
brave opposition candidates willing to face likely GOB
reprisals for their political activism. End Summary.


Domestic Election Observation
--------------


3. (C) With the GOB's recent sentencing of the leaders of
the election monitoring NGO Partnership, prominent human
rights NGO Belarus Helsinki Committee (BHC) confirmed to us
its interest in monitoring the electoral process leading up
to the January municipal elections. BHC has observed several
elections in Belarus, including the 1995 and 1999 municipal
elections, 2004 parliamentary elections, and 2006
presidential elections. European NGOs and governments have
provided financial support for BHC's election monitoring
efforts, and the USG has provided small (Democracy
Commission) grants to the organization for its human rights
monitoring and defense efforts. BHC remains one of the few
legally recognized independent NGOs in Belarus, although the
GOB regularly threatens the organization with

de-registration.


4. (C) On August 17, BHC leaders presented us with a
proposal to monitor and report on the election process
(October-January) and field from 250-1,500 observers on
Election Day for USD 25,000-56,000. (Note: We would work
with BHC to minimize costs. End note.) The involvement of
1,500 observers is ideal because it would provide monitoring
for one-third of the country's approximately 5000 voting
districts. We intend to finance part of the project through
our Democracy Commission (up to USD 24,000),and the German
and Czech embassies have expressed interest in supporting the
proposal as well. (Note: We are not aware of any U.S. NGO
currently interested in supporting election observation for
the municipal elections. End note.)

International Election Observation
--------------


5. (C) The OSCE's clear determination that the presidential
elections were fraudulent served as the basis for U.S.-EU
sanctions against the regime. The involvement of the OSCE in
the upcoming municipal elections would provide the
international community further legitimacy to keep the
pressure up on the regime and positively impact the morale of
the opposition candidates.


6. (C) The Director of the OSCE Minsk Office, Ambassador Ake
Petersson, told Pol/Econ Chief August 15 that he would soon
encourage OSCE-ODIHR to dispatch election monitors to Belarus
to observe the January 2007 electoral process. Ambassador
Peterson's Human Dimension Officer recently returned from a
meeting with the ODIHR's Election Office in Warsaw and
learned ODIHR would have the financial and human resources
available to send a modest-sized election monitoring team to
Belarus. The challenge for the OSCE would be to persuade the
Lukashenko regime to issue an invitation to observe the
elections. The ODIHR election office noted that many member
states, including Belarus, do not recognize the role of the
OSCE in municipal election coverage, but the organization has
performed such monitoring in the past.


7. (C) Ambassador Petersson agreed with our assessment that
even if the GOB refuses to issue an invitation, the OSCE's

MINSK 00000904 002 OF 002


expressed (public) interest in observing the municipal
elections would ratchet up the pressure on the regime and
force Belarus to recognize the international community's
close and continued interest in all political developments in
the country. (Note: Despite tough rhetoric and
consternation, the GOB has always issued an invitation to the
ODIHR to observe presidential and parliamentary elections.
We do not believe the OSCE in the past has seriously
approached the GOB to observe its municipal elections. End
note.) Petersson suggested as a first the step the OSCE
should dispatch an ODIHR Needs Assessment Team (NAT),which
does not require a formal GOB invitation, to explore the
prospects for election monitoring.


8. (C) Action Request: To fund the BHC monitoring effort,
Embassy Minsk requires an additional USD 24,000. The Embassy
also recommends that the Department engage like-minded OSCE
members and USOSCE to encourage a monitoring effort beginning
with the steps outlined in paragraphs 6 and 7 above.
Moore