OPPOSITION LEADER VYACHORKA PRAISES USG EFFORTS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000840

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER VYACHORKA PRAISES USG EFFORTS,
LOOKS TO JANUARY 2007 LOCAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore For Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In their first meeting, Belarusian
opposition leader Vyachorka asserted to Charge on August 2
that United Democratic Forces (UDF) members were united
behind UDF leader Aleksandr Milinkevich and are recruiting
and mobilizing a growing number of citizens frustrated with
the regime. The UDF plans to use the campaigns for local
elections, planned for January 2007, as a legal channel to
educate citizens nationwide on economic problems due to
Lukashenko's leadership. Vyachorka praised U.S. and EU visa
bans and asset freezes as being effective instruments of
pressure on the regime, but would like to see greater effort
in broadcasting independent radio programs deeper into
Belarus. End Summary.


2. (C) BNF leader and member of the UDF Political Council
Vintsuk Vyachorka asserted that the UDF had become widely
known as the alternative to President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
He told Charge that creating the UDF had not been easy, but
after two years of work they were finally united behind the
leader and face of the UDF, Aleksandr Milinkevich.

UDF United
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3. (C) When Charge inquired further about the UDF's "unity,"
Vyachorka admitted that it was impossible to bring all
opposition groups together, particularly jailed opposition
candidate Aleksandr Kozulin and his Belarusian Social
Democratic Party (BSDP). Vyachorka cited the recent motions
from United Civic Party leader Anatoly Lebedko and Belarusian
Communist Party leader Sergey Kalyakin to hold a second
congress of democratic forces to choose a new leader.
According to Vyachorka, most UDF leaders believe a second
congress would be a waste of energy and resources and the
proposal seems to be dead. However, the UDF's inner
squabbles were small and controllable and simply the result
of too many personal ambitions. Vyachorka claimed the UDF
has plenty of room for all leaders and their ambitions, and
although Milinkevich is the UDF leader, he is not a dictator.

Election Strategy
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4. (C) Vyachorka maintained that the UDF's institutions
(i.e., the Political Council and Secretariat) were intact and
actively working towards democratic change. The UDF's
strategy is to use the January 2007 local municipal election
campaign as a legal channel to raise awareness countrywide on
Belarus' current and future problems (i.e., probable rise in
energy prices, lack of investment, bankruptcy) and convince
citizens that the only solution is a free Belarus. Vyachorka
claimed that frustration with the regime was growing and
affecting demographic groups who were traditionally
apolitical, such as independent entrepreneurs. According to
Vyachorka, informal entrepreneurial networks have expressed
greater interest in working with the UDF, and they possess
enough energy to serve as the spark for widespread calls for
democratic change. Although the UDF plans to help select and
support candidates, the UDF doubts any will be elected.

U.S. Support
--------------


5. (C) When asked about USG support, policy, and approach to
Belarus, Vyachorka stated enthusiastically that the UDF
appreciates the U.S. constant support and the democratic
values it shares with the UDF. Vyachorka enthusiastically
confirmed that the Belarusian Democracy Act, joint U.S.-EU
visa bans, and asset freezes were working even better than
the UDF anticipated. Elderly women on the trolleybuses can
be heard discussing visa bans, militia officers are always
wondering whether they are on the list, and colonels ask if
the list applies to them or only to the generals, Vyachorka
said; these measures are a slap in the face for the
Lukashenko regime.


6. (C) When asked by the Charge, Vyachorka's one-word answer
for things the USG can do to further promote change was
"information." He told Charge he would like to see a range
of coordinated FM broadcasts from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia
(but does not expect similar from Ukraine or Russia) to
better inform as many Belarusians as possible. Among others,
he cited Radio Racija and RFE/RL as ideal participants.

Comment
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7. (C) While we suspect that we are often told what we want
to hear, Vyachorka reaffirmed what Emboffs have heard in
other meetings, primarily that the UDF has moved away from
debates about a second congress and is focusing on the local
elections planned for January 2007. The UDF Political
Council has made some progress by agreeing on a general
strategy document and a six-month action plan for promoting
democratic change. The Secretariat seems to be moving ahead
with implementation. The successful impact of UDF efforts
mainly hinges on a focused and united coalition and an
attractive message to key interest groups, such as
entrepreneurs and youth. In upcoming meetings with his
senior opposition colleagues, we hope to hear similar
messages and get more concrete indications of progress.
Moore