Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK707
2006-07-10 13:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

IN-FIGHTING AND DISORGANIZATION STAGNATES UDF

Tags:  PGOV PHUM BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0707/01 1911339
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101339Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4659
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1211
RUEHBS/USMISSION USEU 0108
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000707 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: IN-FIGHTING AND DISORGANIZATION STAGNATES UDF
MOVEMENT

REF: MINSK 692

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000707

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: IN-FIGHTING AND DISORGANIZATION STAGNATES UDF
MOVEMENT

REF: MINSK 692

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: The internal power struggles and
disorganization within the United Democratic Forces (UDF) are
affecting the UDF's support among democratic-minded
Belarusians and its ability to initiate a formable movement
against Lukashenko. At least two clans have formed in the
UDF and are butting heads over strategies and leadership
positions while ignoring their supporters. Tired of waiting
for orders from the national leadership, regional activists
are independently initiating their own campaigns and working
together to keep supporters motivated and united. However,
some activists and civil society groups, disgusted with the
infighting, are abandoning the UDF to pursue their own
agenda. End Summary.

Lebedko V. Milinkevich
--------------


2. (C) The power struggle between the United Civic Party
(UCP) leader Anatoly Lebedko and Coalition presidential
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich has split the United
Democratic Forces (UDF) into at least two groups.
Lebedko-still angry that Milinkevich was chosen as the single
candidate-and his supporters (the UCP, Belarusian Communist
Party (BCP),youth group Malady Front) maintain that the
October Congress of Democratic Forces chose Milinkevich as
the Coalition's presidential candidate, not as the UDF
leader. Therefore, they believe a second congress may be
needed to "reevaluate" the UDF's structure and activities.


3. (C) On July 4, UCP deputy Igor Shinkarik reiterated as
much to Pol/Econ Chief. Although he claimed that the
congress' purpose would be to legitimize the UDF's activities
and to officially include in the UDF other democratic groups,
such as presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin's party and
tent city demonstrators, he unconvincingly denied that the
UCP would use the congress to call Milinkevich's leadership
into question. Shinkarik admitted that talks over holding a
second congress had produced a stalemate in the UDF, but
claimed this was temporary, as the UCP was "converting" other
UDF members, such as BPC leader Sergey Kalyakin and Malady
Front, to their side. Shinkarik noted that if agreement on

the need for a congress could not be reached, the UCP and
other opposition forces would de facto carry on with their
activities without Milinkevich.

No Agreement On Action Plan
--------------


4. (C) A clear line between the Lebedko and Milinkevich clans
was drawn during the June 27 sitting of the UDF political
council. The council, comprised of political party leaders
of the Ten Plus Coalition and headed by Milinkevich, approved
the UDF's one-year action plan, "Guidelines of the UDF in
July 2006-July 2007 (reftel),but did not reach a consensus
on who would sit on the executive committee in charge of
implementing the plan.


5. (C) According to Belarusian Popular Front deputy Viktor
Ivashkevich, Lebedko and Kalyakin voiced opposition to the
one-year plan, calling it vague. However, when Lebedko and
Kalyakin introduced their agenda for summer 2006, "The Plan
Of Four Actions"-calling for the collection of signatures to
contest the presidential election results, the creation of an
initiative group to demand the annulations of the labor
contract system, preparation for local elections, and a
campaign for the release of political prisoners (Solidarity
for Fredom)-the BPF rejected it as "inefficient" and
ecessively dependent on street actions. The majoriy of the
political council agreed with the BPF ad rejected the plan.
Angered, the UCP published a article on its website titled,
"The Coalition Selves Summer Plan," that interpreted the
politicl council session as a conflict between the proactve
UCP and the passive majority. The BPF websit responded,
claiming it was the UCP, not the BPF,who was inactive.

A Split In The UDF
--------------


6. (C) After the upset at the politicl council, the UCP
declared it would maintain bi and multilateral relations
with UDF members, bu would act independently in cooperation
with the ational Committee (headed by Lebedko),hinting at
de facto secession. Shinkarik pointed out that even though
the UDF political council approved the one-year action plan,

MINSK 00000707 002 OF 002


the democratic coalition will not likely follow up on the
document. Basic questions, such as which groups or people
will take responsibility for each activity and when should
these activities be implemented, were left unanswered.
Shinkarik suggested to Pol/Econ Chief that the inherent
ambiguities in the action plan reflect the unwillingness of
coalition members to seriously coordinate initiatives and
programs.

UDF Problems Result In Frustration, Loss of Supporters
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Deputy leader of the UDF and manager for Milinkevich's
campaign team Viktor Kornyenko on June 22 confirmed for
Pol/Econ Chief that Lebedko's and Milinkevich's battle for
power had immobilized the UDF. In fact, the infighting and
stalemate had become so serious that Kornyenko suggested he
would resign from the UDF political council should the
infighting continue into the fall.


8. (C) Alyona Volyenets of the Belarusian Assembly of
Democratic NGOs in a June 27 meeting with Pol/Econ Chief and
Poloff criticized the UDF's indecisiveness. She noted that
as a result, the UDF failed to attract the youth, who now
prefer to operate independently without directions from the
UDF. Volyenets cited as an example the flash mob groups'
immediate rejection of UDF attempts to unite and coordinate
all flash mobs. The NGO leader criticized the UDF's
reluctance to listen to NGOs and civil society and inability
to initiate activities other than election campaigns and
congresses. Volyenets, whose umbrella organization has an
advisory position on the UDF political council, suggested the
UDF initiate a campaign to impeach Lukashenko via
demonstrations and the Belarusian legal system. Such a
campaign, she argued, would keep supporters united. The UDF
leadership refused. (Note: Shinkarik on July 4 told Pol/Econ
Chief that for the same reasons above, several civil society
groups refuse to work with the UDF
and are pursuing their own activities.)


9. (C) Emboffs at the Embassy July 4th celebration heard the
same threats to leave the opposition from prominent
activists. Ales Kornyenko of the Limon youth group in Gomel
and once active supporter of both the UCP and BPF told PolOff
that he and his colleagues quit the opposition due to its
disorganization and infighting. He explained that many
Belarusians support change, but were not willing to stick
their necks out if there was no hope, and they do not see any
within the current opposition.

Local Political Parties, Not UDF, Begin Campaigning
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Regional and mid-level BPF leaders on June 23 told
Poloff that while the UDF was occupied with its problems,
regional political parties and organizations have initiated
their own activities in order to keep activists motivated and
not lose the support they built up during the presidential
elections. The GOB in June announced elections for local and
district soviets would tentatively be held January 2007. Not
surprisingly, the UDF has not agreed on a specific strategy
nor has it started campaigning. However, the individual
political parties and local candidates were already
conducting informal campaign meetings with supporters.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) While the UDF leadership continues to publicly stress
unity--Kalyakin told Ambassador on June 26 that the divisions
in the UDF were not a major problem and Milinkevich pitched a
unified front in his recent trip to Grodno--working-level
party officials tell Emboffs that the split between the UCP
and BPF runs so deep that it is unlikely that they could
closely work together in the near future. To be sure, the
leadership of the UDF is comprised of intelligent and
talented individuals who make good impressions while abroad,
but in country they have not demonstrated an ability to work
together or organize for a sustained period of time.
Unfortunately, this has taken its toll on their civil society
supporters, who have grown impatient with the UDF and have
made plans independent of the coalition.
Krol