LUKASHENKO PRAISES ECONOMY, SEEKS BETTER RELATIONS WITH

UNCLAS MINSK 000701

SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - CAPTION ADDED
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO PRAISES ECONOMY, SEEKS BETTER RELATIONS WITH
WEST,U.S. IN INDEPENDENCE DAY SPEECH



1. (U) SUMMARY: President Aleksandr Lukashenko gave his
Independence Day address on July 1 at the Palace of the Republic.
He vowed that Belarusians would never forget the sacrifices their
families made during WWII and thanked survivors for rebuilding
Belarus into a strong nation. He then praised Belarus' economic
success, not forgetting to remind the audience that most of
Belarus' accomplishments happened under his rule. He directly
mentioned U.S. relations, claiming Belarus was ready for dialogue,
but it was up to the USG to understand Belarus' position. As usual,
the President criticized Western pressure and warned foreign
investors that they were not to make profits at the expense of
government stability or the standard of living. He criticized
privatization, citing the Beltransgaz row with Russia, and stressed
that although Belarus' top priority was the Russian-Belarus Union,
Belarus would maintain its sovereignty. Lukashenko did not stray
much from his written text, avoiding much of the quirky comments
that typify his speeches. END SUMMARY.

All Our Success Is On My Watch
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2. (U) On July 1, Lukashenko told the lethargic audience of
veterans, students, and government officials that Belarus' success
did not appear out of thin air, but was the result of the people's
years of hard work. He also did not fail to mention that most of
the country's success happened in the last ten years. Not long ago
the economy was practically ruined and the government was weak and
unable to protect its own people. Now the standard of living
continues to rise, citizens do not feel left out or unwanted by
their government, the youth have equal opportunities to receive an
education and guaranteed work, and production levels have exceeded
those during Soviet times. The result is a democratic society that
operates better than many Western democracies.

We Need To Do More
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3. (U) Lukashenko lauded Belarus' development while under his rule,
but stressed that Belarusians must work harder if they wanted to be
rich, self-sufficient, and maintain their independence. Since
Belarus does not have natural resources, it must protect and foster
human intellect and a good work ethic. Therefore, the GOB supports
the National Academy of Sciences and educational institutions for
its citizens. Lukashenko cited the National Library (reftel) as
one of their successes and considered it a symbol of a new era for
Belarus. In return, citizens must work to modernize Belarus'
industries to ensure that Belarus achieves a high status among
industrialized nations.

Be Wary of Foreign Investment
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4. (U) Belarus is ready for foreign investment, Lukashenko stated,
but warned that Belarusians could be left empty-handed should they
rely too much on foreign capital. Citizens constantly hear that if
they attract investment from the West and East, "paradise" will
follow. However, businesses financed and built by outsiders would
not be owned nor controlled by the GOB. Investors want special
treatment and better conditions than those offered by neighboring
countries, such as fewer taxes or none at all. Foreign businesses
may provide jobs, but Belarus has proven that it can provide jobs
for its citizens, which is why the unemployment remains only 1.5
percent. Furthermore, foreign businesses will not offer better
pay, because capitalists are not willing to divide their profits.

No to Privatization
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5. (U) The President criticized privatization, citing the row with
Russian gas giant GAZPROM over the ownership of Belarus' pipeline
company Beltransgaz. Lukashenko claimed he was not against
privatization, especially if Russians are involved, but not even
the President had the right to sell Belarusian assets at below
market price. As Lukashenko put it, if bidders did not want to pay
the full price for a Belarusian enterprise, then "Da Svidanya"
(good-bye).

Better EU Relations
--------------


6. (U) Lukashenko noted that Belarus' top priority was to develop
the Belarusian-Russian Union state, but it would be a union of
sovereign nations. Belarus was strengthening relations with
Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, to which Lukashenko wryly added, "We
cannot chose our neighbors." He pointed China out as Belarus' most
important political partner in the 21st Century. However,

Lukashenko spoke more on increasing trade with the EU, which he
said was Belarus' second largest trading partner. Lukashenko
claimed Belarus was ready to develop economic and political
relations with EU, but only on equal terms.

Better Relations With U.S. Depends On USG
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7. (U) Lukashenko claimed Belarus was also ready for a dialogue
with the U.S., but relations depended entirely on how quickly the
U.S.' ruling elite realized that Belarusians are a wise, proud, and
honorable people who should be respected. The President opined
that Americans need to refresh their memory about historic events,
the living witnesses of which are growing smaller in number, and
remember that Belarus and the U.S. were on the same side of the
barricade fighting fascism together.

The Triumphant Epilogue
--------------


8. (U) In conclusion, Lukashenko maintained that Belarus had made
significant progress since its 1944 liberation from Nazi control.
Now Belarus had relations with governments on all continents and
has an active role in international organizations, including the
UN. Belarusians have built their future, are on the right path,
and will continue to develop the country. Success depends on the
people, but if they are not united, then they will not be
victorious.

Comment
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9. (SBU) A calm speech by Lukashenko standards, it was consistent
with his Lukacentric vision of Belarus' recent past and future.
Although long winded about Belarus' economic miracles, Lukashenko
stayed on point and avoided rash statements that characterize his
presentations. The unusually brief remarks on Russia, whom
Lukashenko usually spends much time lauding reflects the current
tension in relations with Russia. Mentioning the Baltic States,
the EU, and the U.S. may be a gesture to the West to help offset
Russia's pressure on Belarus, but his remarks also indicated that
he remains unwilling to satisfy the West's demands for political
and economic reform.

KROL