Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK633
2006-06-15 13:18:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
LOCAL ELECTION DATE SET AND LUKASHENKO ALREADY
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHSK #0633 1661318 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 151318Z JUN 06 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4549 INFO RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3352 RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3706 RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 3330 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3485 RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1698 RUEHBS/USMISSION USEU 0099 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1178 RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS MINSK 000633
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION DATE SET AND LUKASHENKO ALREADY
PROMISING FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES
UNCLAS MINSK 000633
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION DATE SET AND LUKASHENKO ALREADY
PROMISING FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES
1. (U) On June 9, Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko
issued the order to hold elections for local district and city
councils (soviets) on January 14, 2007 with the possibility of
postponement to January 28. The last local elections were held
in 2003, but opposition activists won few of the 24,000 available
seats and condemned the process as undemocratic. Although the
opposition is greatly underrepresented in the current local
soviets, their small presence still aggravates Lukashenko.
During his May 23 speech to Parliament, Lukashenko claimed
opposition activists managed to get elected to local soviets not
because of strong support, but because of voters' apathy and
their low confidence in the effectiveness of the soviets.
Lukashenko claimed opposition activists were "preparing for a
fierce fight" and wanted revenge for their "crushing defeat"
during the presidential elections. Lukashenko ordered his
government to find and support qualified candidates for the local
soviets to prevent the opposition from winning any seats.
Opposition Ready to Fight Back?
--------------
2. (U) During a June 13 conference in Minsk, Ten Plus Coalition
leaders and supporters agreed to begin a large-scale campaign for
the local elections. Chairman of the Belarusian Party of
Communists Sergey Kalyakin acknowledged disagreement among the
Coalition parties, but believes local elections would unite them
in their common interest to remove Lukashenko. Deputy chair of
the Belarusian Popular Front Viktor Ivashkevich suggested
recruiting more activists and capitalizing on social tensions
that could arise should energy prices increase. Film producer
Yury Khashchevatsky added that the Coalition should nominate more
young politicians as candidates for the local soviets.
Comment
--------------
3. (SBU) Lukashenko has made clear his intention to prevent any
pro-democratic activists from being elected to the local soviets.
To achieve this end, we can expect the usual administrative
tactics and harassment we witnessed during the presidential
campaign. Therefore, it is important that the Coalition put
aside its internal squabbles and pursue an intense, well
organized campaign. It is doubtful that the opposition will win
many, if any, seats on the local soviets in the face of regime
pressures and falsification, but the opposition's realistic goal
is to grow support from a significant percentage of the
electorate so that when the - almost certainly falsified election
results are tallied, the population will know that they have been
cheated. The participation of local independent activists in
the election is also important to, and a barometer of, the
development of Belarusian democracy.
KROL
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION DATE SET AND LUKASHENKO ALREADY
PROMISING FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES
1. (U) On June 9, Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko
issued the order to hold elections for local district and city
councils (soviets) on January 14, 2007 with the possibility of
postponement to January 28. The last local elections were held
in 2003, but opposition activists won few of the 24,000 available
seats and condemned the process as undemocratic. Although the
opposition is greatly underrepresented in the current local
soviets, their small presence still aggravates Lukashenko.
During his May 23 speech to Parliament, Lukashenko claimed
opposition activists managed to get elected to local soviets not
because of strong support, but because of voters' apathy and
their low confidence in the effectiveness of the soviets.
Lukashenko claimed opposition activists were "preparing for a
fierce fight" and wanted revenge for their "crushing defeat"
during the presidential elections. Lukashenko ordered his
government to find and support qualified candidates for the local
soviets to prevent the opposition from winning any seats.
Opposition Ready to Fight Back?
--------------
2. (U) During a June 13 conference in Minsk, Ten Plus Coalition
leaders and supporters agreed to begin a large-scale campaign for
the local elections. Chairman of the Belarusian Party of
Communists Sergey Kalyakin acknowledged disagreement among the
Coalition parties, but believes local elections would unite them
in their common interest to remove Lukashenko. Deputy chair of
the Belarusian Popular Front Viktor Ivashkevich suggested
recruiting more activists and capitalizing on social tensions
that could arise should energy prices increase. Film producer
Yury Khashchevatsky added that the Coalition should nominate more
young politicians as candidates for the local soviets.
Comment
--------------
3. (SBU) Lukashenko has made clear his intention to prevent any
pro-democratic activists from being elected to the local soviets.
To achieve this end, we can expect the usual administrative
tactics and harassment we witnessed during the presidential
campaign. Therefore, it is important that the Coalition put
aside its internal squabbles and pursue an intense, well
organized campaign. It is doubtful that the opposition will win
many, if any, seats on the local soviets in the face of regime
pressures and falsification, but the opposition's realistic goal
is to grow support from a significant percentage of the
electorate so that when the - almost certainly falsified election
results are tallied, the population will know that they have been
cheated. The participation of local independent activists in
the election is also important to, and a barometer of, the
development of Belarusian democracy.
KROL