LEBEDKO EXPLAINS HIS OPPOSITION TO MILINKEVICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000560

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: LEBEDKO EXPLAINS HIS OPPOSITION TO MILINKEVICH

Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a May 23 meeting with Ambassador,
Belarusian opposition figure and United Civic Party (UCP)
chairman Anatoliy Lebedko discussed his recent visit to
Washington, points of disagreement within the opposition
coalition and commented on Russian-Belarusian relations.
Lebedko is pushing for the coalition to develop a concrete
"plan of action" and supports holding a congress of the
democratic coalition to confirm the coalition's strategy.
Lebedko acknowledged his positions put him at odds with
coalition leader Milinkevich, but he downplayed their
differences as more over form than substance. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Lebedko described his recent meetings in Washington
with Washington officials at State, NSC, OVP and on the Hill
as interesting and useful. He was particularly pleased to
hear the USG is pushing hard to place Belarus on the agenda
of the upcoming G-8 summit in St. Petersburg.


First Chat with Milinkevich
--------------


3. (C) Turning to relations within the democratic opposition,
Lebedko noted that the day before he had his first one-on-one
long discussion with coalition presidential contender
Aleksandr Milinkevich. He acknowledged they did not manage to
resolve all their differences, especially over the
coalition's future strategy, but he downplayed their
disagreements as more form than substance. He commented that
the coalition needs to open up and accommodate the new people
who emerged in support of change after the March 19
elections, including finding a way to work with presidential
contender Aleksandr Kozulin and his people. Lebedko contended
Milinkevich and Kozulin were splitting the same
pro-democratic segment of the country.


Coalition Strategy Needs Action Plan
--------------


4. (C) Lebedko noted his party had abstained from voting on
the coalition strategy presented and discussed by the
coalition governing council the day before (note: the UCP was
the only coalition member not to endorse the strategy).
Lebedko claimed his party's rules dictate that the party's
governing council had to discuss and review any document
before endorsing it. He implied this would take a little time
but he clearly noted his main problem with the proposed
strategy (which he claimed had been authored by BNF chairman
Vyachorka) is its lack of a concrete "plan of action."
Lebedko maintained an action plan is crucial to move the
coalition beyond words and rhetoric to keep the interest and
the support of the new people who want to take action to
promote change and not simply talk about change. Elaborating
on the action plan, Lebedko maintained it must contain
proposals specific to each region of Belarus. He indicated
the UCP is actively formulating this plan.


Needed: A Congress and National Committee
--------------


5. (C) Lebedko argued the coalition should hold another
congress comprised of the already elected members as well as
the new people and Kozulin's people to show greater unity and
bless formally the strategy and action plan. Noting some
coalition members argue a congress could have a destructive
effect on coalition unity, Lebedko was adamant it would not
as long as personal political ambitions are contained.


6. (C) Lebedko worried that the opposition was becoming too
pre-occupied with word games, such as whether to call itself
a movement or a campaign. He also complained that too many
look through what Lebedko called the "prism of Milinkevich."
He contended the national committee created by the coalition
during the campaign (which he headed) needed to be preserved,
and actively engaged with the people. For this reason he
believes the committee should have its own web-site separate
from any party and keep people informed of coalition stances
as well as answer questions from interested citizens on
coalition policies. Breaking the information vacuum and the
government's propaganda monopoly would have to be a key part
of the coalition action plan.


7. (C) On Russia, Lebedko expressed deep concern Moscow may
be undertaking strong efforts to absorb Belarus. Preventing
this had to be a part of the coalition's action plan. He
hoped the outside world could help by raising Belarus at the
G-8 summit in St Petersburg and giving Russia a sharp
warning.


Dispelling Rumors
--------------


8. (C) Ambassador told Lebedko frankly that some European
countries present at the Vilnius CDC conference expressed
concern over undisguised Lithuanian efforts to promote
Lebedko against Milinkevich, and this could hurt Lebedko's
and the coalition's image in Europe. Ambassador also noted
rumors circulating that the USG supports Lebedko against
Milinkevich. Ambassador reiterated to Lebedko that the USG
encourages a united democratic opposition in Belarus and is
not picking favorites. Lebedko expressed gratitude for the
Ambassador's frankness, claiming he had heard such rumors
himself. As for his image in Europe, he hopes to deal with
that when he travels to Germany next week.


Lebedko Reelected As Chairman
--------------


9. (U) On May 28, the UCP reelected Lebedko as its chairman
during the party's tenth convention. Lebedko was supported by
138 of the 164 delegates. Vladimir Chervonenko, the chairman
of the UCP regional organization in Grodno, and Igor
Shinkarik, chairman of the Minsk city organization, were
elected deputy chairpersons. Lyudmila Gryaznova and Yaroslav
Romanchuk were reelected as deputy chairpersons.


10. (U) The UCP also adopted a resolution calling for a
second Congress of Democratic Forces to discuss the recent
presidential campaign and to define the opposition's strategy
for the post-election period. Lebedko suggested that
Kozulin's supporters and those who demonstrated in October
Square should participate in the congress.


11. (U) The convention also voted to increase efforts to
delegitimize Lukashenko's government. These efforts would
include a campaign called "Solidarity for Freedom" to
pressure the government to release all political prisoners,
inform the public about the human rights situation in
Belarus, and bring the regime before an international
tribunal.


Comment
--------------


12. (C) COMMENT: Lebedko claimed he has no intention of
splitting the coalition and only wants to strengthen it. It
is clear, however he thinks Milinkevich is less action
oriented than he would like and acknowledges Milinkevich only
as a leader but not the leader of the democratic opposition.
It is a good sign he and Milinkevich agreed they needed to
have more one-on-one discussions together as they had this
week. They will probably never see eye to eye but perhaps can
recognize the benefit of maintaining at least to the outside
world and to the Lukashenko regime a united front.
Krol