Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK520
2006-05-16 14:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLE HINDERS OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
VZCZCXRO6363 OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHSK #0520/01 1361414 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 161414Z MAY 06 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4406 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 1148 RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE IMMEDIATE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000520
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLE HINDERS OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000520
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLE HINDERS OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)
1. (C) Summary: High-level opposition members told Pol/Econ
Chief on May 11 that the power struggle between United Civic
Party (UCP) leader Anatoly Lebedko and Ten Plus Coalition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich was hindering the opposition
movement. Activists doubt the two leaders would reconcile,
but do not believe Lebedko plans to pull his UCP party from
the Coalition. The activists noted other problems within the
Coalition, such as its indecisive political council, failure
to unite with flash mob activists, and lack of preparation
for important events. End Summary.
Lebedko Wants To Be Leader
--------------
2. (C) Deputy of the United Civic Party (UCP) Ludmila
Gryaznova told Pol/Econ Chief on May 11 that the power
struggle between UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko and Ten Plus
Coalition presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich was
paralyzing the opposition movement. According to Gryaznova,
Lebedko and his main deputies, Yaroslav Romanchuk and
Aleksandr Dobrovolsky, believe that after Lebedko's years of
hard work, suffering, and personal embarrassment, he--not
Milinkevich--deserved to be the single opposition candidate.
Meanwhile, Milinkevich's supporters, particularly Belarusian
Popular Front (BPF) deputy Ales Mikhalevich, have convinced
Milinkevich that he is above the other opposition leaders,
and therefore does not need to work with Lebedko.
Milinkevich Deputy Doubts Reconciliation
--------------
3. (C) Gryaznova doubted Lebedko would withdraw from the
Coalition because many UCP members would not follow him if he
did. She believes Lebedko and Milinkevich should travel to
Vilnius, without their deputies, to iron out their problems
with a mediator whom they both respect, such as former Czech
President Vaclav Havel. However, Milinkevich campaign
manager Viktor Kornyenko told Pol/Econ Chief later that day
that he doubted Lebedko and Milinkevich would reconcile,
partly because Milinkevich has enough support within the
Coalition to ignore Lebedko and his demands. Kornyenko
agreed that if Lebedko broke from the Coalition, a sizable
portion of his party would not follow. However, time was on
Lebedko's side and it was incumbent upon Milinkevich to prove
his worth as a coalition leader. According to Kornyenko, if
Milinkevich is unable to turn the Coalition into an
effective, inclusive movement by Fall 2006, then Milinkevich
should step down.
An Inefficient Political Council
--------------
4. (C) Gryaznova criticized the Ten Plus political council's
indecisiveness and lack of leadership. She once attended a
session as proxy for Lebedko (who rarely if ever attends the
council himself and reportedly rescinds all agreements his
proxies make in his absence) and left the meeting believing
the entire council should be dismissed. In her opinion, such
a council would be more effective if filled with advisers
concerned about strategy and not about their political
ambitions. She lambasted BPF leader Vintsuk Vyachorka's
childlike behavior, which made him difficult to work with.
According to Gryaznova, Vyachorka breaks every agreement he
makes, but is an ace at playing bureaucratic games and
successful at fulfilling his interests before those of the
Coalition. Gryaznova opined that political council member
and leader of the Women's Party Nadezhda Valentina Matusevich
was a "complete zero" and speculated that she and leader of
the Party of Freedom and Progress Vladimir Novosyad, who also
sits on the co
uncil, had questionable BKGB ties.
Coalition Made Mistakes
--------------
5. (C) Kornyenko admitted that the Coalition made many
mistakes during the elections, the largest of which was not
properly using their time. He said the Coalition was not
prepared as it should have been for March elections and
should have held its October 2005 Congress at a much earlier
date. He said one reason for this was that funding came too
late, but the main delay was that decisions were not made
quickly.
6. (C) The opposition leadership on March 19 was not prepared
for how events unfolded. According to Kornyenko, the
Coalition prepared for demonstrators to gather at Gorky Park,
MINSK 00000520 002 OF 002
where Milinkevich was waiting in a nearby apartment for his
moment to speak to the crowd. However, demonstrators
"unexpectedly" gathered on October Square and the BKGB,
acting quickly, seized three of the Coalition's sound systems
and disconnected phone services, leaving the opposition
leadership, including Milinkevich, unaware of what was
happening. Kornyenko said they were better prepared by March
20, but by then the crowd was significantly smaller and the
Coalition leaders knew they had missed their chance. (Note:
The Coalition told people for several weeks to gather on
Election Night at October Square, so Kornyenko's excuse that
this occurred unexpectedly is questionable.)
No Luck Recruiting Students
--------------
7. (C) The opposition leadership recently tried to recruit
the student movement involved in the October Square tent city
and the flash-mob movement into the Coalition. Although
Kornyenko could not say whether the students had yet agreed,
Gryaznova told Pol/Econ Chief that the students had refused,
and "rightly so." According to Gryaznova, the flash mobs'
effectiveness laid within their spontaneity and lack of
hierarchy. To fall under the bureaucratic control of the
Coalition would have only weakened their movement.
Other Problems
--------------
8. (C) Kornyenko believes that if the Coalition had had
evidence proving election falsification and had the means to
advertise the falsifications, more people would have come to
the streets. However, the GOB's tight control over the media
and the "lack of objectiveness" in Gallup's polling did not
give the Coalition much to use. (Note: Kornyenko said those
who conducted the polling surveys were too frightened to
perform a thorough survey. To the best of Post's knowledge,
neither Gallup nor any other independent polling service
conducted exit polling.) According to Kornyenko, the
Coalition never really had many options. In addition, many
so-called democratic leaders and parties, including the
Grodno UCP branch and Vitebsk civil society leader Olga
Karach, refused to participate in the elections or help the
opposition and then further discredited the Coalition by
criticizing its strategy.
9. (C) Kornyenko highlighted the negative influence from
Georgian activists during and after the elections and cited
what had happened at the latest conference in Vilnius.
According to Kornyenko, the resident Georgian Consul, in
front of conference attendees, accused the Coalition of
having too many BKGB members in its ranks, lambasted the
opposition for not overrunning government buildings, and
claimed opposition leaders paid the GOB to arrest them to
boost their political image. Kornyenko said Georgia's
hostility and accusations against Milinkevich are direct
results of Georgia's support for Lebedko.
Comment
--------------
10. (C) Gryaznova's and Kornyenko's testimonies confirm the
rumors Post has heard of power struggles and fragmentation
within the Coalition. The sources of the problem are not
just the political aspirations of Lebedko and Milinkevich,
but also the conflicting interests of the Ten Plus Coalition
parties. Unfortunately, this in-house bickering is hindering
the opposition's ability to promote democratic change.
Krol
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLE HINDERS OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)
1. (C) Summary: High-level opposition members told Pol/Econ
Chief on May 11 that the power struggle between United Civic
Party (UCP) leader Anatoly Lebedko and Ten Plus Coalition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich was hindering the opposition
movement. Activists doubt the two leaders would reconcile,
but do not believe Lebedko plans to pull his UCP party from
the Coalition. The activists noted other problems within the
Coalition, such as its indecisive political council, failure
to unite with flash mob activists, and lack of preparation
for important events. End Summary.
Lebedko Wants To Be Leader
--------------
2. (C) Deputy of the United Civic Party (UCP) Ludmila
Gryaznova told Pol/Econ Chief on May 11 that the power
struggle between UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko and Ten Plus
Coalition presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich was
paralyzing the opposition movement. According to Gryaznova,
Lebedko and his main deputies, Yaroslav Romanchuk and
Aleksandr Dobrovolsky, believe that after Lebedko's years of
hard work, suffering, and personal embarrassment, he--not
Milinkevich--deserved to be the single opposition candidate.
Meanwhile, Milinkevich's supporters, particularly Belarusian
Popular Front (BPF) deputy Ales Mikhalevich, have convinced
Milinkevich that he is above the other opposition leaders,
and therefore does not need to work with Lebedko.
Milinkevich Deputy Doubts Reconciliation
--------------
3. (C) Gryaznova doubted Lebedko would withdraw from the
Coalition because many UCP members would not follow him if he
did. She believes Lebedko and Milinkevich should travel to
Vilnius, without their deputies, to iron out their problems
with a mediator whom they both respect, such as former Czech
President Vaclav Havel. However, Milinkevich campaign
manager Viktor Kornyenko told Pol/Econ Chief later that day
that he doubted Lebedko and Milinkevich would reconcile,
partly because Milinkevich has enough support within the
Coalition to ignore Lebedko and his demands. Kornyenko
agreed that if Lebedko broke from the Coalition, a sizable
portion of his party would not follow. However, time was on
Lebedko's side and it was incumbent upon Milinkevich to prove
his worth as a coalition leader. According to Kornyenko, if
Milinkevich is unable to turn the Coalition into an
effective, inclusive movement by Fall 2006, then Milinkevich
should step down.
An Inefficient Political Council
--------------
4. (C) Gryaznova criticized the Ten Plus political council's
indecisiveness and lack of leadership. She once attended a
session as proxy for Lebedko (who rarely if ever attends the
council himself and reportedly rescinds all agreements his
proxies make in his absence) and left the meeting believing
the entire council should be dismissed. In her opinion, such
a council would be more effective if filled with advisers
concerned about strategy and not about their political
ambitions. She lambasted BPF leader Vintsuk Vyachorka's
childlike behavior, which made him difficult to work with.
According to Gryaznova, Vyachorka breaks every agreement he
makes, but is an ace at playing bureaucratic games and
successful at fulfilling his interests before those of the
Coalition. Gryaznova opined that political council member
and leader of the Women's Party Nadezhda Valentina Matusevich
was a "complete zero" and speculated that she and leader of
the Party of Freedom and Progress Vladimir Novosyad, who also
sits on the co
uncil, had questionable BKGB ties.
Coalition Made Mistakes
--------------
5. (C) Kornyenko admitted that the Coalition made many
mistakes during the elections, the largest of which was not
properly using their time. He said the Coalition was not
prepared as it should have been for March elections and
should have held its October 2005 Congress at a much earlier
date. He said one reason for this was that funding came too
late, but the main delay was that decisions were not made
quickly.
6. (C) The opposition leadership on March 19 was not prepared
for how events unfolded. According to Kornyenko, the
Coalition prepared for demonstrators to gather at Gorky Park,
MINSK 00000520 002 OF 002
where Milinkevich was waiting in a nearby apartment for his
moment to speak to the crowd. However, demonstrators
"unexpectedly" gathered on October Square and the BKGB,
acting quickly, seized three of the Coalition's sound systems
and disconnected phone services, leaving the opposition
leadership, including Milinkevich, unaware of what was
happening. Kornyenko said they were better prepared by March
20, but by then the crowd was significantly smaller and the
Coalition leaders knew they had missed their chance. (Note:
The Coalition told people for several weeks to gather on
Election Night at October Square, so Kornyenko's excuse that
this occurred unexpectedly is questionable.)
No Luck Recruiting Students
--------------
7. (C) The opposition leadership recently tried to recruit
the student movement involved in the October Square tent city
and the flash-mob movement into the Coalition. Although
Kornyenko could not say whether the students had yet agreed,
Gryaznova told Pol/Econ Chief that the students had refused,
and "rightly so." According to Gryaznova, the flash mobs'
effectiveness laid within their spontaneity and lack of
hierarchy. To fall under the bureaucratic control of the
Coalition would have only weakened their movement.
Other Problems
--------------
8. (C) Kornyenko believes that if the Coalition had had
evidence proving election falsification and had the means to
advertise the falsifications, more people would have come to
the streets. However, the GOB's tight control over the media
and the "lack of objectiveness" in Gallup's polling did not
give the Coalition much to use. (Note: Kornyenko said those
who conducted the polling surveys were too frightened to
perform a thorough survey. To the best of Post's knowledge,
neither Gallup nor any other independent polling service
conducted exit polling.) According to Kornyenko, the
Coalition never really had many options. In addition, many
so-called democratic leaders and parties, including the
Grodno UCP branch and Vitebsk civil society leader Olga
Karach, refused to participate in the elections or help the
opposition and then further discredited the Coalition by
criticizing its strategy.
9. (C) Kornyenko highlighted the negative influence from
Georgian activists during and after the elections and cited
what had happened at the latest conference in Vilnius.
According to Kornyenko, the resident Georgian Consul, in
front of conference attendees, accused the Coalition of
having too many BKGB members in its ranks, lambasted the
opposition for not overrunning government buildings, and
claimed opposition leaders paid the GOB to arrest them to
boost their political image. Kornyenko said Georgia's
hostility and accusations against Milinkevich are direct
results of Georgia's support for Lebedko.
Comment
--------------
10. (C) Gryaznova's and Kornyenko's testimonies confirm the
rumors Post has heard of power struggles and fragmentation
within the Coalition. The sources of the problem are not
just the political aspirations of Lebedko and Milinkevich,
but also the conflicting interests of the Ten Plus Coalition
parties. Unfortunately, this in-house bickering is hindering
the opposition's ability to promote democratic change.
Krol