OPPOSITION ILL-PREPARED FOR CHERNOBYL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000442

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ILL-PREPARED FOR CHERNOBYL
DEMONSTRATIONS

REF: 04 MINSK 472

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The Minsk authorities granted the opposition
permission to hold the Chernobylski Shliakh (The Chernobyl
Path),a demonstration commemorating the 20th anniversary of
the Chernobyl power plant tragedy, on April 26. The Ten Plus
Coalition is "organizing" the event, but the leadership has
made few preparations and will not meet to devise a plan
until April 24. Viktor Ivashkevich, a Belarusian Popular
Front (BPF) member and demonstration planner for the Ten
Plus, gave Poloff on April 21 vague details of the
opposition's plans for Chernobylski Shliakh and confirmed the
growing concern that the opposition suffers from lack of
communication and organization. End Summary.


2. (U) Chernobylski Shliakh has typically been one of
Belarus' largest annual demonstrations. According to
independent online news source Belapan, 50,000 people
gathered in downtown Minsk on the ten-year anniversary of the
Chernobyl disaster in 1996. At the march, demonstrators
overturned cars and clashed with police. Dozens were injured
and over 200 people were arrested. In 2000, 20,000 people
participated, in 2001 - 5,000 people, 2002 - 4,000 people,
2003 - 3,000 people, and in 2004 - 1,000 people. In 2005, a
large OMON riot police and security service presence on
October Square deterred many demonstrators and the event was
subsequently cancelled (reftel). This year's demonstration
will mark the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl tragedy.

GOB Sanctions Demonstration, But Has Terms
--------------


3. (U) On April 19, the Minsk City Executive Committee
granted the Ten Plus Coalition permission to hold a
1,000-person demonstration in Minsk. However, the
authorities refuse to allow a demonstration on October Square
or a march on Independence Avenue to the National Academy of
Sciences (NAS). Instead, the authorities insist the
demonstration be at the NAS followed by a march to Bangalore
Square on side streets away from the city's center.

No Preparation
--------------


4. (C) Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) member Viktor
Ivashkevich admitted to Poloff on April 21 that although the
Ten Plus was organizing the march, its leaders had not met to
make preparations. Ivashkevich blamed the delay on the
absent leadership that has been traveling abroad. However,
the Ten Plus leadership plans to meet on April 24 to
"negotiate" and "decide" on the demonstration's preparations.



5. (C) Ivashkevich said the Ten Plus would abide by the
authorities' conditions and hold the Chernobylski Shliakh at
NAS and by marching to Bangalore Square. He expected some
demonstrators would gather at October Square, but someone
from the Ten Plus leadership - possibly former candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich, his campaign manager Sergey Kalyakin,
or BPF leader Vintsuk Vyachorka - would be there to encourage
demonstrators to move to NAS in order to avoid clashes with
security forces.


6. (C) The march is expected to commence at 18:00, and at
approximately 19:00, Milinkevich will speak to the
demonstrators about the GOB's inadequate response to the
Chernobyl accident and explain the opposition's strategy for
the next year before leading demonstrators to Bangalore
Square. Ivashkevich predicted the demonstration would end at
21:00.

Turnout Unknown
--------------


7. (C) The Ten Plus allegedly distributed in Minsk 200,000
leaflets advertising the demonstration, but is relying
heavily on independent online news sources and newspapers to
inform the public. Ivashkevich expects a turnout similar to
the March 25 demonstration - approximately 7,000 people -
because security services are less likely to interfere.
Ivashkevich admitted that youth groups, unions, and other
social organizations have not pledged to attend the ceremony,
but he expects individual members of these groups to
participate.

Intra-Party Squabbles
--------------

MINSK 00000442 002 OF 002




8. (C) Ivashkevich admitted problems existed within the Ten
Plus Coalition leadership, especially between the United
Civic Party (UCP) leader Anatoly Lebedko and Milinkevich.
Ivashkevich noted that several leaders believe they would
have been better candidates than Milinkevich, but he does not
believe the resulting personality clashes pose a serious
threat to the unity of the coalition.
Krol