Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK44
2006-01-19 06:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN MOVING FORWARD, DESPITE HARASSMENT

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL BO 
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DE RUEHSK #0044/01 0190646
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 190646Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3627
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000044 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN MOVING FORWARD, DESPITE HARASSMENT


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN MOVING FORWARD, DESPITE HARASSMENT


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: The signature collecting campaign, the second
phase of the presidential election, is in full swing. The
Central Election Committee gave contenders until January 27 to
collect the 100,000 signatures needed to be registered as a
presidential candidate. President Lukashenko's initiative group
announced it had collected 930,000 signatures, but news sources
report that many were collected by coercing students and
government employees. Ten Plus candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich
leads all other candidate hopefuls with 140,000 signatures
collected. Reports of interference in the signature collection
campaign are common. Police have allegedly detained signature
gatherers and banned signature collecting in public places.
Independent candidate Voitovich gathered 20,000 signatures
before he bowed out of the election after predicting that the
March elections would be fraudulent. The common opinion shared
among the candidates' parties is that the GOB will find a way to
prevent candidates from getting on the ballot through less
visible means. However, some analysts believe the authorities
will allow all candidates to be on the ballot in order to
further split the opposition support and make the elections
appear more free and fair. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On January 11, Lukashenko's initiative group announced
it had collected 930,000 signatures. On January 16,
Milinkevich's group reported that it had collected 140,427
signatures, taking the lead among other candidates, and expected
to have 250,000 by the end of the signature campaign on January

27. Milinkevich's regional trip manager, Ales Yanukevich, told
Poloff on January 4 that Milinkevich originally expected to
gather one million signatures. Aleksandr Kozulin's group, the
Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gramada) claimed to have
gathered 120,000 signatures and plans to have 300,000 by the end
of the campaign. Zenon Poznyak's Conservative Christian Party
on January 11 claimed to have collected over 40,000 signatures
and expected to gather an additional 150,000. MP and leader of

the Liberal Democratic Party (pro-Lukashenko) Sergey Gaidukevich
announced on January 16 that he had collected 124,000 signatures
and General Valery Frolov claimed to have 60,000 signatures.
Jailed activist Sergey Skrebets on January 12 reportedly had
35,000 signatures.

GOB Interference
--------------


3. (U) On January 10, secretary of the Central Election
Commission (CEC) Nikolai Lozovik described the signature
campaign to the press as "calm" with few serious complaints.
According to Lozovik, the only complaint registered with the CEC
came from Kozulin's Social-Democratic Party (Gramada) and was
similar to other complaints that happen "tens" of times during
elections. However, Lozovik assured that the CEC would solve
the problem as soon as possible to avoid any "speculation."


4. (SBU) Though Lozovik claimed the campaign was running
smoothly, the opposition teams are reporting government
interference. According to Milinkevich's group, police are
constantly detaining signature collectors and preventing them
from collecting in public places. Poloff on January 8 spoke to
a Milinkevich supporter who was gathering signatures on Minsk's
main street, Independence Avenue. The supporter, standing in a
booth with Milinkevich's picture in plain view, told poloff that
police constantly harass signature gatherers and often tell them
to move. According to Milinkevich's campaign manager Sergei
Kalyakin, 60 percent of all signature collectors have been
questioned by the police and 40 individuals quit due to pressure
from the authorities.


5. (U) According to CEC rules, initiative groups can collect
signatures in public places, such as subways and markets.
However, initiative groups throughout the country are being
barred from collecting in public places. A Milinkevich
signature collector was detained and released in Pinsk on
January 3 in the market after police claimed his accreditation
to Milinkevich's party was false. Later that day, the same
collector refused to allow police to search his document folder
and was again detained, this time for "insubordination." On
January 4, he was detained in the market for allegedly keeping
"unsanitary" conditions at his signature booth. On January 5,
police told Milinkevich signature gatherers that they would have
to move their booths away from TSUM (Minsk's central department
store) because they did not have permission to collect
signatures in a public place. The police failed to show proof
of the alleged law and claimed to be acting out the orders of
the city authorities.


6. (U) Paznyak's group reported on January 5 that police banned
their members from gathering signatures in subway stations and
dormitories. Kozulin reported that the authorities in Vitebsk
instructed police to prevent Kozulin supporters from gathering

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signatures within the city. On January 9, Kozulin's party sent
a complaint to the CEC about the authorities' "persistent and
strong psychological pressure" on members, in particular,
threats and blackmail that already caused five Kozulin
supporters to abandon the campaign.

Luka's Strategy: Coercion
--------------


7. (C) Numerous reports have surfaced about authorities coercing
students, government workers, and state industry employees to
sign their support for Lukashenko. On January 6, independent
news source Charter97 reported that students at Belarusian
universities were forced to sign for Lukashenko's nomination as
a candidate or risk expulsion, low grades, and/or eviction from
dormitories. At the Belarusian State University (BSU),students
in the chemistry, mathematics, history, economy, philosophy,
philology, and journalism departments reported that they were
coerced to sign for Lukashenko before taking their final exams.
On January 5, a student informed poloffs that before his exams,
the university rector passed Lukashenko's signature petition
around the classroom and "strongly" encouraged them to sign.
According to the student, no one did.


8. (U) On January 9, Charter97 allegedly received a letter from
students in the mathematics and mechanics department at BSU who
accused the university administration of threatening students
with evictions from dormitories if they did not sign for
Lukashenko within three days. The students expect authorities
to visit the dormitories during early voting in March, much like
they did during the 2004 referendum, and go room to room forcing
students to vote for Lukashenko.


9. (U) On January 11, Kozulin's party filed another complaint at
the CEC in response to allegations that the Slutsk city
government forced employees of government-controlled
organizations to sign for Lukashenko. According to Kozulin's
group, people who are not part of Lukashenko's initiative group
are gathering signatures for Lukashenko during working hours.
In Polotsk on January 7 and 8, employees at two kindergartens
were forced to sign for Lukashenko after being threatened with
dismissal. Kozulin's group called the irregularities unlawful
and a violation of voting rights.

The Foreseeable Outcome
--------------


10. (C) Yanukevich doubted that the authorities would interfere
too much with the signature campaign because it would be too
obvious to foreign observers. Instead, he believes that during
the signature verification process, the newly formed territorial
election commissions, which include mostly Lukashenko
supporters, could possibly dismiss thousands of Milinkevich
signatures for alleged falsifications. If Milinkevich was
denied the right to be on the presidential ballot, Yanukevich
claimed that the Milinkevich's team would organize a 20,000-
person march.


11. (C) Aleksandr Voitovich, independent candidate and academic,
dropped out of the race on January 9 after collecting only
20,000 signatures. His political consultant Anatoly Fedorov
told Poloff on Jan 9 that Voitovich's signature gatherers were
losing their jobs and businesses and the GOB was using less
visible methods of harassment. He also considered the campaign
to be an illusion for the public and claimed that if he
continued to participate, he would only be helping the GOB fool
people into thinking the elections would be free and fair.
According to Fedorov, Voitovich plans to avoid the election all
together and it is doubtful that he or his team would support
any other opposition contender. Fedorov expected General Frolov
to bow out of the race in the near future and that only three
candidates, including Lukashenko, would make it on the ballot.

The CEC's Opinion
--------------


12. (C) Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met with CEC Secretary Lozovik
on January 17 to discuss the CEC's official warnings to
Milinkevich and Poznyak's initiative groups for distributing
campaign materials during the signature campaign. According to
Belarus' electoral laws, initiative groups are not to campaign
until their presidential hopeful is officially registered as a
candidate. Lozovik claimed to have verbally warned Milinkevich
and Poznyak's groups several times to cease campaigning, but to
no avail. On January 18, both initiative groups would meet with
Lozovik and the CEC would then decide what actions to take.
Lozovik claimed he did not know if the CEC would punish the two
initiative groups or not, but the worst case scenario would be
to invalidate the signatures collected in the regions where the
electoral violations took place. If the violations occurred
across the country, Milinkevich and Poznyak could lose all their

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signatures and have to start from the beginning. Lozovik hoped
it would not come to this and stressed that he would like to
register all seven presidential hopefuls as candidates. [Note:
The CEC ended up issuing an official warning to both groups on
January 18, but did not invalidate signatures. Milinkevich
called the reasons behind the warning "far-fetched" and
announced plans to contest the warning at the Supreme Court.
Poznayk's group claimed that the distribution of printed the
materials was legal and called on other initiative groups to do
the same. Head of the CEC Ludmila Yermoshina, after listening
to Poznyak's statement, regretted that the CEC's official
warning was "too mild."]


13. (C) Poloff asked Lozovik about rumored violations from
Lukashenko's initiative group, particularly reports about
officials coercing students and government employees to sign
their support for the President. A defensive Lozovik claimed
that such reports were based on rumors, not on facts, and that
Lukashenko's support was so high that he did not need to resort
to such measures. The CEC reviewed Kozulin's complaints,
particularly about kindergarten teachers in Vitebsk. Lozovik
pointed out that alleged violations took place on Saturday and
Sunday when school was not in session, and therefore, the
teachers could not have been forced to sign on the alleged date.
Kozulin's other complaints also allegedly proved to be false.
According to Lozovik, if students and state employees were being
forced to sign for Lukashenko, they should send official letters
to the CEC and the Prosecutor General's office, not to news
sources and foreign institutions. If officials are abusing
their power on behalf of Lukashenko's campaign, then they are
acting on their own accord and should be removed. Although
Lozovik opined that these accusations were false, he claimed the
CEC would investigate.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Post is in agreement with Yanukevich and Fedorov that
the GOB will use many means to tilt the wheel in greater favor
to Lukashenko. The CEC will have ten days to verify the
authenticity of signatures following the January 27 deadline.
Judging from the 2004 parliamentary elections, it is during this
process that thousands of signatures could be declared invalid
for clerical technicalities or alleged falsifications. But some
analysts have told Post that the CEC may allow all presidential
hopefuls on the ballot, as such a move would further split the
"democratic vote" and show the international community that the
GOB is conducting free and fair elections. According to his
view, Lukashenko is content with his high ratings (around 54
percent) and would settle for a less fraudulent, but nonetheless
convincing victory over a rigged election that would cast even
greater doubt on the legitimacy of his government.

KROL