UCP UNHAPPY WITH COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000428

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: UCP UNHAPPY WITH COALITION

REF: MINSK 390

Classified By: BY CHARGE CONSTANCE PHLIPOT


1. (C) Summary: On April 17, United Civic Party (UCP) deputy
Jaroslav Romanchuk in a meeting with Poloff expressed his
frustration with the activities and organization of the
opposition's main coalition. Claiming to speak for his
party, Romanchuk said the UCP presented a proposal to reform
the opposition coalition, but this was met with hostility
from much of the rest of the coalition. Romanchuk denied the
UCP is attempting to place its own leader, Anatoly Lebedko,
as head of the opposition, but he did deride Aleksandr
Milinkevich for not exhibiting leadership. Although
frustrated with the coalition, the UCP is seeking to reform
the structure, not destroy it. Given the intense internal
debates, the coalition seems ill prepared to unite
anti-regime activists and advance democracy in Belarus. End
Summary.


Coalition Had No Plan
--------------


2. (C) Romanchuk complained to Poloff at length that the
coalition's biggest failing during the recent presidential
elections was not having any plan of what to do once polls
closed. He claimed that Milinkevich and his election
headquarters were caught by surprise when thousands of people
took to the streets to protest, and did not know how to
respond. Romanchuk stated the UCP and several youth groups
had tried to engage the coalition's Political Council (its
executive committee) in advance to plan for demonstrations,
but were rebuked. He said that the Belarusian Popular
Front's (BPF) deputy, Viktor Ivashkevich, was in charge of
coalition logistics and demonstration planning. However,
Ivashkevich refused to work with youth groups or with the
rival opposition coalition headed by Aleksandr Kozulin.
Ivashkevich is now in charge of mobilization for the planned
April 26 Chernobyl demonstration, the coalition's next big
event. Romanchuk feared that because Ivashkevich is again
refusing to work with youth grou
ps, turn-out will be lower than it could have been otherwise
and will be limited to those who "self-mobilize."


3. (C) When asked, Romanchuk admitted that the coalition also
has not started even talking about any plans or strategies to
contest local elections, which could be held as early as
October.


Need a New Congress to Promote Change
--------------


4. (C) Romanchuk stated that the UCP is unhappy with the
cumbersome way in which the coalition operates. As an
example, he said that the coalition's excessive bureaucracy
prevented them from submitting Milinkevich's platform for
free printing in state newspapers, even though the platform
was prepared well in advance. The UCP is also unhappy that
some parties, such as the Women's Party Nadezhda and the
Party of Freedom and Progress, which played no role at all
during the election campaign, continue to have an equal vote
in the coalition while other more active groups are excluded.
Romanchuk said the UCP wants the coalition to hold a new
Congress of Democratic Forces in order to:

--Reshape the cumbersome Political Council;
--Integrate active youth groups, Kozulin's coalition and
other opposition forces into the coalition;
--Decide on the formation and goals of the new opposition
"movement;"
--Praise the "heroes of the square," those who protested in
the tent city, as a means of bringing them into the coalition;
--Streamline the bureaucracy.


5. (C) The UCP presented a written proposal for reform to the
rest of the coalition. The UCP plan proposes holding a new
congress, would do away with the election headquarters (which
Romanchuk claimed Milinkevich's wife, Inna Kulei, is trying
to turn into a new human rights group),would invite Kozulin,
his Social-Democratic party, and several active youth groups
into the coalition, and would try to lure various opposition
personalities into the coalition. Romanchuk argued that the
coalition needs to bring in people such as former MP Valery
Frolov, academic Vladimir Kolas, former MP Vladimir
Parfenovich, and former Speaker of Parliament Aleksandr
Voitovich. Bringing them into the coalition with paid
salaries, Romanchuk stated, would make them members of the
team and prevent them from plotting against the coalition.
They might even be able to attract supporters from their
respective areas of expertise.


6. (C) Romanchuk complained that most of the rest of the
coalition is attacking them for even proposing reforms. In
most cases the UCP is accused of wanting to replace
Milinkevich with Lebedko. Romanchuk said this is the usual
coalition scenario: the UCP presents a written, concrete
proposal, and the rest, who have nothing more than vague
ideas on what they want to do, resist. He hopes that
Milinkevich, Lebedko and Kalyakin can finally hold a private
meeting to clear the air between them, and that other groups
would present their visions of the future so the coalition
have something concrete to discuss.


Stupid to Replace Milinkevich, Sort of
--------------


7. (C) Romanchuk claimed that much of the rest of the
coalition is accusing the UCP of only wanting change so that
Lebedko can replace Milinkevich as head of the movement. He
dismissed those who are spreading this rumor as "BKGB
provocateurs" and said it would be "stupid" to replace
Milinkevich. Romanchuk said that Milinkevich has high name
recognition, and should remain nominally at the head of the
coalition for now. However, he added that the October 2005
congress only elected Milinkevich as the single coalition
presidential candidate, so it is unclear what his role in the
coalition should be now. The BPF wants him to remain head.
(Note: During an April 14 meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, BPF
deputy Ales Yanukevich repeatedly noted that every member of
the Political Committee, except Lebedko, already expressed
their strong support for Milinkevich's continued leadership
of the coalition.)


8. (C) Romanchuk complained that Milinkevich is not
exhibiting any true leadership, which is weakening the
opposition as a whole. Romanchuk claimed that at an April 13
meeting of the Political Council in Vilnius on the future
activities of the coalition, Milinkevich was present but did
not even speak. Warming to his subject, he accused
Milinkevich of being "cowardly, controlled by Inna (Kulei,
his wife),and has lost the respect of the youth," for
failing to support their continued demonstrations against the
falsified elections. (Note: In a separate meeting with
Ambassador the same day, Kulei denied influencing
Milinkevich's decision to break his agreement with Kozulin
over the tent city on October Square and maintained that her
husband makes his own decisions.)


9. (C) The UCP is proposing that the coalition have a
rotating chairmanship, shared between the leading members of
the unified opposition, such as Milinkevich, Kozulin,
Lebedko, Kalyakin and Vyachorka. Romanchuk then said that
the activities of these various leaders over the next two to
three years would show who is the rightful leader of the
coalition. He indicated that he expects Lebedko to be this
leader, and stressed that Lebedko is trying to work with
youth groups now to bring them into the coalition and to
mobilize them for the April 26 demonstration.


How Much of Politics is Personal?
--------------


10. (C) At several points in the discussion Romanchuk made it
clear that Lebedko feels he was ignored during the campaign.
Lebedko, who lost to Milinkevich at the October congress by
just eight votes, was supposed to have met weekly with
Milinkevich and Sergey Kalyakin, the other potential single
candidate. Romanchuk claimed not a single one of those
meetings occurred. He also said that Lebedko and the UCP
tried many times before the election to get the leadership
and the Political Council to plan post-election strategies,
but were continually rebuffed. Romanchuk maintained that the
BPF is against any changes to the coalition because its
senior leaders, particularly BPF chair Vintsuk Vyachorka and
deputy Ales Yanukevich, are already in positions close to
Milinkevich.


What Worked in the Campaign
--------------


11. (C) When asked what worked and what did not in the
coalition during the election campaign, Romanchuk replied
that Milinkevich's written "vision" and platform were
successful, and he acknowledged the Lithuanian government for
printing 20,000 copies of the platform. He also thanked the
Lithuanians for providing the initial funding for the tent
city protest (he claimed that the Lithuanian MFA's Renatas
Juskas arranged the resources for the first tents). He also
praised cooperation with some entrepreneur groups during the
campaign and subsequent protests. On the contrary, he
criticized some youth groups, such as Khopits and Zubr, for
being ineffective and for spreading too many "meaningless"
slogans. Romanchuk also criticized Ivashkevich for failing
to adequately plan the demonstrations and the UCP's own
deputy Aleksandr Dobrovolsky, who did a poor job in charge of
public relations for the campaign. (Note: We heard similar
criticism of Dobrovolsky's performance from several civil
society leaders.)


Comment
--------------


12. (C) Romanchuk claimed to be speaking on behalf of his
party, and said that Lebedko had asked him to present this
message at the April 13 Political Council meeting in Vilnius.
Post heard some of these same criticisms and ideas from
another UCP deputy, Ludmila Gryaznova, on April 4 (reftel).
Post has heard from several sources that the UCP is not happy
with the current state of the coalition, but is not likely to
break away. Even our UCP interlocutors stress they want to
reform, not destroy, the opposition coalition. However, they
face serious resistance from the BPF (facing its own internal
power struggle) in particular. The coalition will not likely
split in the near future, but it remains encumbered by
infighting and lack of organization. Milinkevich must take
immediate action to address the concerns of rival factions
and move the coalition forward, or he will remain leader of
democratic forces united in name only.
Krol