CIVIL SOCIETY REGROUPS POST ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000422

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: CIVIL SOCIETY REGROUPS POST ELECTIONS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and Poloffs met separately with
human rights activists, civil society leaders and political
analysts following the March 19 presidential elections to
learn about their post-election plans. Most of the civil
society leaders agreed that Milinkevich proved to be a good
leader of the opposition, even if he was too disorganized and
Europe-focused. Many leaders lamented the opposition's
missed opportunities, but conceded that Lukashenko made some
mistakes that had helped the opposition. Several human
rights leaders described their plans to continue efforts to
promote democratic change in Belarus. The Belarusian
Assembly of Democratic NGOs plans to launch a new social
movement, "For Freedom," aimed at uniting civil society and
political parties. The Belarusian Association of Journalists
continues to support the few remaining registered independent
newspapers in Belarus. The leaders called for a stricter,
longer visa ban list to include local level GOB officials.
Some human rights ac
tivists claimed that the GOB has created a "black list" of
activists' names which makes it more difficult, but not
impossible, for activists to travel abroad. End summary.


2. (C) In a series of meetings, Ambassador and Poloffs
recently called on several human rights and civil society
activists to get their assessments of the new political
landscape following the presidential elections and to learn
more about their plans for maintaining the momentum for
democratic change. On April 5, Ambassador hosted political
analysts Vyacheslav Orgish, Vladimir Rovda, Sergei Balyking
and Konstatin Skuratovich. Emboffs also recently met with
Belarusian Assembly of Democratic NGOs (BADN) representative
Alyona Volyenets, Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ)
deputy head Andrey Bastunets, human rights NGO Vyasna lawyers
Valentin Stephanovich and Ales Belatsky, Belarusian Helsinki
Committee Head Tatiana Protko, Association of Democratic
Local Councilors' head Ales Mikhalevich, and independent
media Belapan journalist Maryna Rakhlei.

Milinkevich Did a Good Job...
--------------


3. (C) Human rights NGO Vyasna lawyers Valentin Stephanovich
and Ales Belatsky opined that the opposition did a decent job
with the election campaign and the post election protests,
despite the repressive conditions under which they were
forced to work. Stephanovich and Belyatsky commented that
Milinkevich is seen as a professional and is widely accepted
in Europe and even in Belarus. The lawyers believed that the
opposition did not make any grave public mistakes and
reassured Poloffs that the internal squabbling amongst the
senior leadership of Milinkevich's campaign team was not
visible to the supporters.

...But Is Disorganized and Too Focused on Europe
-------------- ---


4. (C) Many activists, however, expressed concern over how
unorganized the opposition was leading up to and following
the elections. Belapan independent media journalist Maryna
Rakhlei and Belarusian Helsinki Committee head Tatiana Protko
commented separately that it was quite clear that Milinkevich
had no post-Election Day plans for how to lead the
protesters. Protko noted that Milinkevich did not arrive at
the Election Night demonstration until two hours after it
began. Rakhlei mentioned that Milinkevich's campaign team
missed their deadline to submit their campaign platform for
publication in state newspapers, and almost missed the
deadline to file a complaint about the election. Rakhlei
commented that Milinkevich's press secretary is uninformed
about Milinkevich's activities and whereabouts and is not
able to relay information about Milinkevich to the inquiring
press. Despite his flaws, however, Rakhlei believes that
Milinkevich is the best that the opposition has, even if
Milinkevich is more a "trus
ted face" than an organizer.


5. (C) Activists also expressed concern that Milinkevich
spends too much time building support abroad instead of in
Belarus. Rakhlei noted that even when he came to October
Square, he spent most of his time doing interviews for
foreign journalists instead of engaging with protesters.
The Vyasna lawyers admitted that even though his international
support helps to prevent the GOB from arresting and
prosecuting him, it would be better if he were not abroad so
often.

Missed Opportunities for the Opposition
--------------


6. (C) During a discussion with Ambassador, political
analysts Vyacheslav Orgish, Vladimir Rovda, Sergei Balyking
and Konstatin Skuratovich lamented the opposition's lost
opportunities. They said that the regime experienced
conflicts with entrepreneurs and has had problems providing
salaries, pensions, and communal services to Belarusians.
The opposition, however, failed to take advantage of the
GOB's shortcomings. The analysts speculated that the
overwhelming majority of the bureaucrats--90 percent--are
unhappy with the Lukashenko regime, but the opposition
remains too weak to capitalize on their discontent. In
separate discussions, Association of Democratic Local
Councilors' head Ales Mikhalevich claimed that only the
high-level GOB officials maintain genuine allegiance to
Lukashenko, while the rank and file officials carry out their
work in a perfunctory manner. Mikhalevich told Poloffs that
mid-level bureaucrats, police and customs officers favored
Milinkevich over Lukashenko.

Lukashenko's Mistakes Help Opposition
--------------


7. (C) Mikhalevich commented that Lukashenko made several
mistakes, which actually helped the opposition. For example,
when Lukashenko complained that protesters beat soldiers
during the demonstrations, he indirectly communicated to the
masses that the seemingly impregnable security forces could
be overpowered. Mikhalevich also said it was a mistake for
Lukashenko to make enemies out of European countries,
especially the Czech Republic, because Belarusians see many
similarities between themselves and the Czech people and
therefore closely identify themselves with their Czech
counterparts.

Mood of the Country Post Elections
--------------


8. (C) Mikhalevich told Poloffs that the mood of the country
has changed; he believes there is massive public support for
reform. He likened the current mood of the country to the
mood in Belarus at the end of the 80's and the beginning of
the 90's, when Belarus first broke from the Soviet Union.


9. (C) The Vyasna lawyers said that unlike in 2001 after the
presidential elections, there is no feeling of loss or a
defeat among the population. They commented that the fear
and confusion that accompanied the arrests following the
elections are no longer present. Instead, they said that
these activists who are being released from prison are very
optimistic about the future. Their time in jail gave them
the opportunity to meet new people, establish new contacts,
and create new ideas. The Vyasna lawyers opined that the
opposition has been infused with "fresh new blood," and that
these activists are filled with hope. However, the lawyers
warned that this moment could pass if concrete plans are not
quickly implemented.


10. (C) Protko lauded the youth's significant role in the
protests following the elections. She claimed that they are
a new generation, unafraid to challenge the regime. She
added, however, that they are still very unorganized.

"For Freedom" Campaign
--------------


11. (C) Belarusian Assembly of Democratic NGOs (BADN)
representative Alyona Volyenets told Poloff that BADN was
trying to create a new social movement, which would unite
political forces and civil society. (Note: Volyenets said
that BADN had previously kept the "For Freedom" campaign
separate from the Ten Plus Coalition party because BADN
wanted the movement to "outlive" Aleksandr Milinkevich's
presidential candidacy.) Volyenets said the movement, which
will focus on strengthening grassroots organizations and
activists, would rely primarily on the Internet for
information dissemination. She referred Poloff to the "For
Freedom" website www.za-svabodu.org, where BADN places
information, resources and postings for their member NGOs and
activists. Volyenets stressed that the new movement's
structure should not be vertical, so as to ensure its
survival if the head of the movement is removed. Volyenets
also warned that the movement should be unencumbered by
bureaucracy, thereby allowing it to easily and effect
ively make decisions. BADN had already presented this
proposal to the Ten Plus Coalition leadership. Although the
proposal is still under discussion, Volyenets told Poloff
that the coalition has more or less agreed to work with BADN.


Media's Struggles Continue
--------------


12. (C) Civil society leaders and human rights activists
agreed that independent media in Belarus continued to shrink.
Vyasna lawyers Stephanovich and Belatsky asserted that if
even one opposition TV channel could be established, "that
would make all the difference." They noted, however, that
the Internet has been a useful medium to disseminate
information, especially among the youth.


13. (C) Belarusian Association of Journalists' (BAJ) deputy
head Andrey Bastunets told Poloff that BAJ's first priority
is to support those newspapers that are still registered in
Belarus. According to Bastunets, there are no more than 30
registered independent newspapers in Belarus. Of the 30
newspapers, state authorities refuse to sell 19 newspapers at
kiosks and will not include 17 newspapers on its state
distribution list. Bastunets relayed to Poloff that BAJ's
second priority was to help those newspapers that have been
forced to "leave the print market" launch online versions of
their newspapers. In addition, BAJ will work with human
rights groups (Vyasna and Pravovaya Initsiativa) and writers'
groups (Pen Center and The Union of Writers) to continue to
monitor violations against journalists and mass media. BAJ
would like to continue to conduct seminars to train
journalists, but Bastunets lamented that it is almost
impossible given the limitations on foreign technical
assistance and GOB's unwillingn
ess to let BAJ rent space for seminars.

Demand for a Longer, Stricter Visa Ban List
--------------


14. (C) Vyasna has compiled a list of local Belarusian judges
and officials who propagate the regime's repressions,
university rectors guilty of expelling student protesters,
and Belarusian Television (BT) journalists to include on the
visa ban list. Expanding the list to include not only the
top leadership sends the message that all will be held
accountable for their part in the regime's oppression. The
Vyasna lawyers also urged the EU to be stricter in their visa
bans since many GOB officials continue to travel to Turkey,
the Czech Republic and Cyprus.

GOB's Opposition Blacklist
--------------


15. (C) Bastunets told Poloff that the GOB created a black
list with opposition activists' names for customs and border
control officials. Bastunets claimed that if a person is on
this list, they are subject to intense search and scrutiny
when crossing the border. However, Bastunets said that he
was not aware of any border guards preventing activists from
crossing so long as they were not involved in illegal
activities. Separately, Mikhalevich noted that activists
mainly face harassment and extensive searches that last for
hours at the borders, but that they are eventually allowed to
cross. Mikhalevich added that during the searches many
customs officials said that they support Milinkevich, not
Lukashenko. (Note: We have heard similar statements from
Milinkevich directly and other opposition leaders.)

Comment
--------------


16. (C) Civil society and human rights groups appear to be
stronger and more committed to fighting for change now than
they were following the 2001 presidential elections. Despite
their criticisms of Ten Plus leader Milinkevich, these groups
remain interested in cooperation with political parties to
promote their common goals. It remains unclear, however,
whether the political parties, and the Ten Plus Coalition in
particular, will seize the opportunity to work with civil
society and to incorporate their support into the Ten Plus
Coalition camp. Moreover, the established opposition groups
have had difficultly reaching out to the hundreds of youth
who participated in the post election protests but who hold
no affiliation with any group or party. Until these new
personalities are acknowledged and folded into the
decision-making process, the Ten Plus Coalition runs the risk
of losing the momentum it gained in the presidential
elections.
Krol