Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK374
2006-04-05 15:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

LUKASHENKO FOUND, LOOKS ILL

Tags:  PGOV PINR BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3281
RR RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0374/01 0951544
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051544Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4179
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1064
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000374 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FOUND, LOOKS ILL

REF: MINSK 348

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4(B,D
)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000374

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FOUND, LOOKS ILL

REF: MINSK 348

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4(B,D
)


1. (C) Summary: Lukashenko has been found. After a two-week
absence from the public eye, and after missing all the events
surrounding the tenth anniversary of the Union State Treaty,
Lukashenko appeared on state television on April 4. In two
short segments an atypically weary and soft-spoken Lukashenko
was shown advising his Foreign Minister and greeting the
Kazakh Ambassador. Lukashenko appeared to have lost weight
and rarely made eye contact with his interlocutors, instead
fidgeting with his hands throughout both clips. A number of
rumors are circulating. Most claim Lukashenko suffered a
stroke or heart attack, and some state that he has been
quietly removed from power, while remaining the public face
of the regime, by members of his inner circle. Meanwhile,
the GOB and its media have made little mention of
Lukashenko's April 8 inauguration. The new Lukashenko
certainly did not appear like a victorious leader who just
won a "thunderous victory." End summary.


Batka Lost, Found
--------------


2. (SBU) Aleksandr Lukashenko last appeared on television on
March 20, when he gave a live press conference dedicated to
the March 19 presidential election. On March 28, state TV
showed a short clip of Lukashenko speaking to a small number
of senior staff (reftel). However, the United Civic Party's
Ludmila Gryaznova told Ambassador on April 4 that UCP sources
had reliably dated that clip to mid-December 2005.


3. (U) On April 4, state television broadcast two short clips
of Lukashenko. One clip had him meeting the outgoing Kazakh
Ambassador. The second showed him speaking with Foreign
Minister Sergey Martynov and recently recalled Belarusian
Ambassador to Poland Pavel Latushka. During the second clip
a tired and quiet Lukashenko rejected western criticism of
the election and claimed Belarus would not yield to any
foreign pressure, but would instead follow its own laws and
goals. He particularly denounced recent Polish actions
against Belarus, but claimed the GOB would take care of its
Polish minority. In the first clip, Lukashenko spoke
unenthusiastically about Kazakh-Belarus relations. In both

clips Lukashenko appeared to be tired, looked like he had
lost weight (sunken cheeks and baggy suit),and had heavy
make-up under his eyes. Throughout both clips Lukashenko
displayed none of his typical energy, instead he mostly
looked down and played with his hands. Contrasted with the
stories of energetic bureaucra
ts solving the nation's "problems" (such as tinted car

SIPDIS
windows),Lukashenko looked more like the defalted loser of
the recent election, rather than someone who achieved a
"thunderous victory," receiving supposedly 83% of the vote.


4. (U) The Head of the Presidential Administration, Gennady
Nevyglas, on April 3 tried to persuade journalists that all
is well with Lukashenko by reporting that the president was
in good health, had played hockey on Saturday, and "won a
resounding victory." He also claimed that inauguration
planning for April 8 was in full swing. Nevyglas' statements
were treated with skepticism as there was no visual proof of
Batka's Saturday hockey match and the PA press service kept
mum on any details about the April 8 inauguration.

Rumors that Lukashenko Sick
--------------


5. (C) A number of rumors continue to circulate in Minsk to
explain Lukashenko's disappearance and poor appearance. On
April 3, Ambassador met with the Serbian Ambassador to
Belarus (protect). The Serb relayed "confirmed" information
from his sources in Moscow that Lukashenko had suffered an
aneurysm in either the heart or brain, and that one of
Lukashenko's presidential aircraft had flown to Moscow the
previous week to bring a team of doctors back to Minsk.


6. (C) The UCP's Gryaznova told Ambassador on April 4 that
Lukashenko had a "head problem" that necessitated treatment,
specifically a series of shots. Gryaznova claimed that
Vladimir Nestiuk, formerly Luakshenko's press secretary and
now a leader in opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin's
camp, is stating that Lukashenko had a heart attack.
However, Gryaznova stated her suspicion that Nestiuk is a
Lukashenko provocateur assigned to feed the opposition
misinformation. Therefore she opined the regime wants people

MINSK 00000374 002 OF 002


to believe Lukashenko only suffered a heart attack while the
truth is much worse. Gryaznova added that the Kremlin sent
Boris Gryzlov to Minsk on April 3, ostensibly to take part in
Union State festivities, but actually to scout out a suitable
replacement for Lukashenko. Gryaznova speculated that State
Control Committee head Anatoly Tozik or the head of a large
state enterprise, such as Belneftekhim, are the most likely
possibilities.


7. (C) Independent political analyst Vladimir Podgul told
Poloff on April 3 that he heard from a senior GOB bureaucrat
that Lukashenko hosted a meeting with the heads of his
security services on March 21 or 22. Podgul claimed
Lukashenko began by quietly thanking the BKGB, MVD, and
Presidential Security for their efforts during the election
period. Suddenly, Lukashenko began to shout obscenities and
yell that the security service heads were all traitors
turning against him. After a few minutes he snapped back and
again quietly thanked everyone. Once again he began
screaming and throwing things at his guests. Podgul stated
Lukashenko's own security detail restrained him and took him
to the Navinka asylum outside Minsk for treatment. Podgul
does not know whether to believe this story, or if this is a
cover to explain why Lukashenko's inner circle are now
running the country. In either case, Podgul stressed that
Lukashenko's failure to participate in any of the events, in
Minsk or Moscow, celebrating the t
enth anniversary of the signing of the Union State Treaty is
proof that something has happened to Batka.


A Quiet Inauguration
--------------


8. (U) The GOB originally scheduled Lukashenko's inauguration
for March 31, and sent invitations to select diplomatic
missions (excluding the U.S. and EU). This inauguration was
postponed without explanation, and will now be held on April

8. The GOB has again invited certain diplomatic missions,
including Japan, Serbia and Turkey, but not the U.S. or EU.
Other than a terse announcement of the date, the GOB
propaganda machine has made little hoopla about the
inauguration. So far the opposition does not have set plans
for a demonstration, but opposition members tell us that
youth groups will certainly coordinate a "spontaneous"
protest somewhere in the city via text messaging and the
internet. Post has heard from a number of contacts that
those activists being released from jail are eager to
continue their fight for democratic change, and so will
likely protest the inauguration.


Comment
--------------


9. (C) Whatever has happened to Lukashenko, he did not appear
on April 4 the leader he was before the elections. He seems
to have lost most of his energy and charisma during his
two-week absence from the public eye. His nearly two-week
absence and poor physical appearance on April 4 are not
indicative of a confident politician recently re-elected in a
supposed landslide. Most rumors refer to Lukashenko
suffering from illness, likely caused by stress. If that is
the case, the steady avalanche of negative statements coming
from the West, and Moscow's sudden post-election insistence
on charging Belarus more for natural gas (septel),might have
contributed to his "illness." A number of rumors also claim
that a physically unfit Lukashenko has been removed from real
decision-making and is now only the public face of the
regime. Post has no evidence to support or refute these
rumors. Rumors of Lukashenko's poor mental state have been a
constant over the 12 years of his rule. But his two-week
absence after hi
s "victory" is unusual even by his bizarre standards. It
maybe that the success of the opposition in holding
demonstrations on March 19 and after, after all the efforts
the regime made to prevent them, may have unnerved
Lukashenko. Regardless of the reasons for his absence and
current poor physical appearance, the "new" Lukashenko does
not appear to be starting his third term on a strong footing.
We will closely monitor how Batka looks and acts on April 8
and afterwards.
Krol