SITREP 4: KOZULIN'S PLAN FOR A SHADOW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000329

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: SITREP 4: KOZULIN'S PLAN FOR A SHADOW GOVERNMENT

REF: A. MINSK 319

B. MINSK 322

C. MINSK 223

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)



1. (C) Summary: A key Kozulin campaign member and a
spokesperson for the Zubr youth group spoke to Poloff on
March 23 to discuss their plans in the wake of fraudulent
elections and massive arrests. Kozulin seeks Milinkevich,s
cooperation in creating a new shadow government that will
unite all political parties and social groups. Demonstrators
continued to protest on October Square, despite their
dwindling numbers and increased provocations from security
forces, and were finally removed by OMON forces on March 24
(septel). Mass arrests and beatings continue, directed
mainly at the youth, and many people are still missing.
Kozulin,s team plans to create a fund providing legal
assistance to those arrested for political activities. End
Summary.


2. (C) Poloff met with key Kozulin campaign manager Oleg
Volchek and Zubr press secretary on March 23 to discuss post
election plans.

Kozulin Wants to Work With Milinkevich, Create Shadow
Government
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3. (C) Volchek passed Poloff a copy of a request Kozulin sent
to Milinkevich on March 23 asking that they work together to
create a shadow government. Kozulin claims he and
Milinkevich, in reality, received the support of the majority
of Belarusians, and the fact that so many gathered on March
19 on the square demonstrated that they were ready for
change. They needed to use this support to form the
Government of the People,s Trust (GPT),which would attempt
to solve the social, economic, and political problems in
Belarus. Volchek said the GPT would elect its own ministers,
organize movements, and include all the opposition,s social
and political elite. According to Volchek, the rift between
Kozulin and Milinkevich over the demonstration was trivial
and would not impede their work together (Ref A). Volchek
called it a &clash of personalities,8 which is not unusual
between leaders. (Note: The Milinkevich team believes
otherwise. See Ref B for details.)

Kozulin Supports Demonstration, But Concerned for Youth,s
Welfare
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4. (C) According to Volchek, Kozulin asked the demonstrators
on October Square to disband not because he did not support
their cause, but because BKGB sources informed him that SOBR
and ALMAZ units were prepared to violently &cleanse8 the
square by March 24, a day before the planned March 25 rally.
Volchek said that Kozulin had made an agreement with the
authorities and the BKGB that the demonstrators would have a
&window of opportunity8 to leave the demonstration without
police reprisals. Unfortunately for Kozulin, the
demonstrators did not agree. Volchek said that if police
decide to use violence against the demonstrators, Kozulin was
prepared to stand beside them on the square. (Note: During
the razing of the demonstrator,s tent village on March 24,
Kozulin was present. More information in septel.)

Fewer Demonstrators and More Problems
--------------


5. (C) Zubr press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchenkov admitted
to Poloff on March 23 that fewer people were participating in
the demonstration, but the perseverance of those that
remained has not been affected. He said the mood on the
square was good, although they know that at any moment the
security services could severely beat them. To pass the time
the demonstrators play music and busy themselves with
assigned duties, such as sanitation, security, and food
procurement. Although they recognize Milinkevich as their
leader, both Atroshchenkov and Volchek noted that Belarusian
Popular Front activist Vechislav Sevchik is the de facto
leader of the group. (Note: Sevchik,s mother was arrested on
March 23 and Sevchik himself is reportedly in a hospital
after suffering a severe beating. Septel.)


6. (C) Atroshchenkov said that demonstrators were facing more
provocations from the authorities. On the night of March 22,
&drunks8 with vodka and champagne would try to give a drink
to the demonstrators. However, several of the provocateurs
were recognized as state television personalities. In one
instance, a &drunk8 was making a nuisance of himself, so

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Atroshchenkov had a nearby police officer confront him.
After speaking to the police officer, the drunk displayed a
pistol hidden under his coat and was immediately let go.
Atroshchenkov fears that violence is imminent, as most
international journalists, accreditations expire on March 23
and 24.

Police Continue to Detain and Beat
--------------


7. (C) Volchek claimed that the militia in black uniforms
surrounding the demonstrators on October Square were not
actually militia, but Commander Dmitry Pavlichenko,s elite
SOBR forces. (Note: Embassy RSO later received information
that security services were actually OMON units commanded
personally be Colonel Yuri Podobed.) He explained how the
officers arrest anyone near the square who is carrying food,
whether they be an activist or an innocent bystander, and
take them to the Okryestan detention center. These officers
also continue to beat activists in broad daylight in
underground pedestrian crossings and subway platforms.
Volchek said at least 20 people who were arrested in the last
few days are still missing and neither the police nor courts
will give information as to their whereabouts.

Those Detained Living in Squalor Prison Conditions
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Volchek and Kozulin went to the infamous detention
center Okryestan where hundreds of arrested activists are
serving their 10 ) 15 day sentences. They were successful
in speaking to a few of the detained, who complained of poor
quality food and cold temperatures, but were not allowed into
the prisoner areas. Volchek claimed the detainees were living
in squalor conditions and prison authorities would not allow
Kozulin to bring food or blankets to the detainees. (Note:
Civil society activist Alyona Volnyeb recently told Pol/Econ
Chief in a separate meeting that in several cases the prison
authorities have refused to provide toilet paper to women
when using the restroom.) Meanwhile authorities would not
release detainee names to the dozens of frantic parents
gathering outside the prison. Zubr press secretary Aleksandr
Atroshchenkov told Poloff on March 23 that many of those
incarcerated have been beaten and he has unconfirmed
information that several have went on a hunger strike.

Kozulin,s Team Organizing a Free Legal Help Service
-------------- --------------


9. (C) In the wake of mass protests, Volchek and other
members of Kozulin,s team are organizing a fund to provide
free legal assistance to help those, especially the youth,
who are arrested and/or expelled from school for their
political activities. The only problem with the idea,
however, is that the fund is empty and they are seeking
financial assistance from anyone who can give. Volchek had
already spoken to the ODIHR and OSCE about printing leaflets
on various legal subjects, such as &How to Protect Yourself
From Illegal Police Searches8 and &How to Avoid Coercion
and Blackmail.8 Volchek explained that the youth was
suffering the most because they did not realize how
&sadistic and fascist8 police behavior could be.

Kozulin,s Team Sends Complaints to Prosecutor
--------------


10. (C) Volchek presented Poloff a copy of all complaints
Kozulin,s team filed with the Supreme Court and General
Prosecutor,s Office. According to Volchek, the Supreme
Court,s official message ironically is that it does not have
the power to determine whether Lukashenko,s run for
president violated the constitution. The Court continues to
dismiss all complaints about illegal arrests and search and
seizures of activists.

Prosecutor,s Decision On February 17 and March 2 Incidents
-------------- --------------


11. (C) The Prosecutor General,s Office decided to extend
its investigation by one month into an ALMAZ commander,s
actions for shooting at a vehicle and the beating of several
journalists on March 2 (Ref B). Volchek doubts the
Prosecutor will charge the security service officers for
their actions. Instead, he fears that he himself will be
charged for hooliganism for being shot in the face with a gas
gun by an OMON officer on February 17. Rumors have also
circulated that the severely beaten Komsomolskaya Pravda
journalist will also be charged for hooliganism and his paper
will not receive accreditation once its current one expires.

Comment

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12. (C) Throughout the meeting, Volchek repeatedly stressed
the need for Kozulin and Milinkevich to work together and not
let the opposition fragment like it did following the 2001
presidential elections. He cited a new found momentum that
needed to be supported not just by both candidates, but all
those active in politics and society. This is to be the
purpose of the shadow government. However, with the wave of
arrests and the courts, blatant indifference, few are left
to make the necessary plans and preparations.
Krol