Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK322
2006-03-23 15:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Situation Report 3: Opposition Crowd Dwindles, Ten Plus

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL BO 
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231555Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4083
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1014
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000322 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: 03/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Situation Report 3: Opposition Crowd Dwindles, Ten Plus
Coalition Discusses Next Steps

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: 03/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Situation Report 3: Opposition Crowd Dwindles, Ten Plus
Coalition Discusses Next Steps


1. (C) Summary: The number of protesters on October Square
continues to diminish. On March 22, the fourth night of
protests on the square, Emboffs observed approximately
1,000 protesters. Ten Plus Coalition leader Aleksandr
Milinkevich congratulated protesters for their
determination to remain on the square and encouraged all
democratic-minded voters convene for a possibly final
October Square rally on March 25. Milinkevich reiterated
his rejection of the election results and announced the
next phase of the opposition campaign is called, "Movement
for Freedom." The opposition leader promised his team
would provide the specific initiatives of this campaign at
the March 25 rally. However, a prominent civil society
activist told Pol/Econ Chief on March 23 that society
groups, and not members of the Ten Plus, are mainly
responsible for providing the Milinkevich team ideas and
generally keeping the opposition movement alive. On March
23, the CEC rejected Milinkevich's appeal to annul the
elections and reconfirmed Lukashenko won the March 19
elections with 83 percent of the vote. End Summary.


Milinkevich Lays Out Plans During Fourth Night of Protests
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Ten Plus Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich
congratulated the crowd of around 1,000 supporters on
October Square for their determination and bravery. He
noted it was their decision to remain on the square
overnight, but called on the protesters and all "those who
hold dear Belarus and democratic values" to gather on the
square at 12:00 on March 25 to celebrate the 88th
anniversary of the Belarusian National Republic, the
country's first, brief independence from Russia. At that
time he would outline for the opposition the coalition's
next steps to continue the momentum for democratic change.


3. (U) Responding to protesters' concerns about their
likely expulsion from state universities and high schools
for participating in the opposition rallies, Milinkevich
noted that he was working with the EU Heads of Mission in
Minsk to ensure that the protesters, who are mostly
college-age youth, will be able to complete their studies

in EU countries. He also stated the EU was in the process
of expanding the visa ban list to include those who had
participated in falsifying the elections.


4. (U) Milinkevich departed from the square after his
remarks, but returned with his wife in the morning of March

23. Emboffs observed only 150 protesters on the square in
the morning and afternoon of March 23.


Security Forces Keep A Watchful Eye On Protesters
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Emboffs observed during the evening rally on
March 22 and in the morning of March 23 that Belarusian
security forces limited the space of the protesters on the
square. Dozens of plainclothes security forces surrounded
the protesters, serving as a buffer between the protesters
and pedestrians not associated with the rally. As during
the March 21 evening rally, there was no lighting on the
square, making it difficult for journalists and camera
crews to cover the rally. Also, Minsk City authorities
cleaned away the snow on the large ice skating rink on the
square and allowed people to skate on the rink. (Note: On
previous nights, protesters occupied all or part of the
snow-covered skating rink.)


CEC Rejects Milinkevich's Appeal, Announces Final Results
-------------- --------------


6. (U) On March 23, the Central Election Committee (CEC)
convened a public meeting to review Milinkevich's written
appeal to annul the results of the March 19 elections and
to announce the results of the final vote tabulation.


7. (SBU) The Milinkevich team's written appeal noted that
the electoral process was deeply flawed, citing the unequal
treatment of candidates by Belarusian authorities at all
levels, unequal access to state media, the unprecedented
number of arrests and confiscations of campaign team
activists, and the approximately 1,000 cases of alleged

MINSK 00000322 002 OF 003


election violations during the voting and vote tallying
stages on Election Day. After a brief review, the CEC
rejected the appeal, arguing that Belarusian authorities
committed no acts serious enough to warrant new elections.
A senior member of the Milinkevich team later told Pol/Econ
Chief that Milinkevich fully expected this decision, but it
was important to reveal to Belarusians and the
international community the depth of fraud and repression
in the Belarusian political system.


8. (U) Turning to the final election results, CEC
President Lydia Yermoshina noted the final results differed
only slightly from the preliminary results announced on
March 19: President Lukashenko received 83 percent,
Milinkevich percent 6.1 percent, pro-Lukashenko MP Sergey
Gaidukevich 3.5 percent, and opposition candidate Aleksandr
Kozulin 2.2 percent. Voter turnout was 92.9 percent.
Yermoshina noted that Lukashenko's inauguration ceremony
will take place March 31.


Milinkevich Team Discusses Next Steps
--------------


9. (C) On March 23, Pol/Econ Chief discussed the outcome
of Milinkevich's March 22 meeting with his senior staff
with Aleksandr Bukhvostov, an independent labor union
leader and key member of the Milinkevich campaign team.
The executive committee (or "political council") of the Ten
Plus Coalition decided use the March 25 rally on October
Square as the venue for announcing the next stage of the
campaign. The team decided to call the next phase of the
campaign, "Movement for Freedom."


10. (C) Bukhvostov explained the team is still developing
specific initiatives for the Movement for Freedom campaign,
but it will likely involve:
-- an information campaign on the fraudulent results and
the need for democratic change;
-- an appeal to the international community to demand that
Belarus hold new elections and that the OSCE be fully
responsible for organizing them;
-- an appeal to the U.S. and EU to apply tougher sanctions
against Lukashenko and key members of his regime;
-- an appeal to the U.S. and EU to apply stronger pressure
to Russia to withdraw its support of the regime;
-- a special program aimed at encouraging the youth to
understand the personal benefits of a democratic Belarus;
-- a partnership with several universities in EU countries
to provide scholarships to Belarusian students who have
been expelled from state universities for their political
activities; and,
-- preparation for the 2007 municipal elections.


Milinkevich Remains Leader of Ten Plus, Kozulin Cut Off
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Bukhvostov noted that the Ten Plus executive
committee also named Milinkevich their leader for the
indefinite future. Bukhvostov noted the Ten Plus concluded
that Milinkevich enjoys the highest name recognition among
opposition leaders of the Ten Plus and has demonstrated his
ability to lead the entire opposition camp. Bukhvostov
admitted that this issue will likely be revisited when key
leaders like Anatoly Lebedko are released from prison, but
he doubted anyone would make a serious claim against
Milinkevich's status as Ten Plus leader in the near future.


12. (C) Bukhvostov also confirmed that the Ten Plus
executive committee decided to suspend cooperation with
opposition candidate Kozulin. The majority on the
executive committee believes that Kozulin only hinders the
opposition campaign, citing as proof Kozulin's recent
"over-the-top" criticism of Milinkevich for failing to
abide by an agreement to encourage protesters to leave
October Square.


In Reality, Civil Society Holding Up Milinkevich Team
-------------- --------------


13. (C) On March 23, civil society activist Alyona
Volynets offered Pol/Econ Chief a sober perspective of the
Milinkevich team's ability to lead the next phase of the

MINSK 00000322 003 OF 003


opposition campaign for democratic change. Volynets,
Director of the Executive Committee of the Belarusian
Assembly of Democratic NGOs, explained the Milinkevich team
is an extremely weakened state. Volynets noted the
Milinkevich team was ill prepared to lead the democratic
forces following the March 19 elections. Moreover, the
arrests of key members of the Milinkevich team since the
elections have severely limited the team's ability to
organize the opposition for further action.


14. (C) When asked about Milinkevich's announcement to
form a Movement for Freedom, Volynets said this initiative
was her organization's idea. Volynets stressed that the
Belarusian Assembly of Democratic NGO's is happy to provide
proposals to the Milinkevich team because civil society in
general believes in Milinkevich and wants to help him lead
the opposition.


15. (C) Volynets added that her organization is pushing
the Milinkevich team to convene another session of the
Democratic Congress before Summer 2006. The Belarusian
Assembly of Democratic NGO's believes such an event would
help revitalize the opposition following the presidential
elections and maintain the attention of democratic-minded
Belarusians and the international community on opposition
initiatives. Volynets argued that the delegates to a
possible congress should be expanded to include "the new
members of the opposition" (i.e., the young protesters who
have been gathering on October Square since March 19).
(Note: Bukhvostov earlier told Pol/Econ Chief that the Ten
Plus decided that the current level of GOB repression is
too high to organize another democratic congress session.


Comment
--------------


16. (C) The number of protesters on October Square
continues to dwindle and the Milinkevich team has yet to
develop concrete plans for leading the opposition.
Although the Ten Plus has taken a step forward by deciding
on a name for the next stage of their campaign, "Movement
for Freedom," the specific initiatives for this campaign
remain vague. Fortunately for Milinkevich, civil society
organizations such as the Belarusian Assembly of Democratic
NGO's have demonstrated an active interest in keeping the
Ten Plus Coalition afloat.

Krol