MILINKEVICH CALLS FOR STREET PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000299

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH CALLS FOR STREET PROTESTS

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4(B,D
)


1. (U) Summary: Opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr
Milinkevich told a press conference on March 20 that the
opposition does not recognize Lukashenko as the winner of the
obviously falsified elections. Milinkevich is demanding a
repeat election, held in a democratic manner without
repression. He called for his supporters to peacefully take
to the streets of Minsk in order to pressure Lukashenko and
his government to give in. End summary.


No Recognition to Batka
--------------


2. (U) On March 20, the day after presidential elections were
held, leading opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich
addressed a packed hall of journalists. Milinkevich, and
later his deputy Sergey Kalyakin, stressed that the
opposition do not recognize the elections as legitimate or
valid, and do not recognize Lukashenko as president of
Belarus. Milinkevich argued that the 2004 referendum that
removed the constitutional limit on presidential terms had
not been democratic, that the Law on the President still
limits the president to two terms, and that the GOB acted
illegally throughout the current election period.
Milinkevich claimed that the security services, not the
Central Election Commission, actually ran this election,
leading to mass repression and falsification.


Demands a Repeat, Democratic Election
--------------


3. (U) Milinkevich announced that the "united opposition" has
several demands from authorities: 1) a second election that
follows the law; 2) election commissions that have
representatives from independent organizations; 3) no
political arrests; 4) no political firings from work; and 5)
no repression. To force these demands on the authorities,
Milinkevich called for the Belarusian people to peacefully
take to the streets that evening "to defend their and their
children's futures." He insisted that, "the only way to talk
to these authorities is from the street," therefore the
opposition needs ten times as many people to publicly
demonstrate as came out the evening of March 19. (Note: Post
estimates that 10,000 to 12,000 demonstrated on election
night (septel).) Kalyakin reiterated this call later in the
press conference.


4. (SBU) Despite the apparent loss, Milinkevich called March
19 a historic day for Belarus and a victory for the
opposition because many Belarusians "threw off their fear" to
fight for the future of their country. He stated that the
mood in the country has changed in recent months, and that
Belarusians now believe that change is possible. Kalyakin
claimed that in a Levada exit poll, less than 50% said they
voted for Lukashenko. He said the real number was likely
lower, as many people probably claimed they voted for
Lukashenko out of fear. (Note: Embassy Moscow contacted
Levada on this topic. Irina Palilova of Levada's press
section admitted that Levada did conduct exit polls of a
significant representative sample of voters. However,
because 30% of those polled refused to answer, Levada felt it
could not officially publish valid results. Levada did share
its results with some in Belarus, who apparently leaked them
to Milinkevich's team.)


5. (U) Responding to journalists' questions, Kalyakin
announced that Milinkevich's campaign had submitted hundreds
of complaints about electoral violations to the CEC.
Milinkevich said he plans to again invite the other
opposition presidential candidate, Aleksandr Kozulin, to join
"a larger coalition." He added that Kozulin appeared at
Milinkevich's March 19 protest, showing that Kozulin supports
Milinkevich. About his own security, Milinkevich claimed,
"If the authorities want to shoot me, there is nothing I can
do. If they jail me, it only hurts the authorities."


More Expected on March 20
--------------


6. (C) Milinkevich campaign deputy Aleksandr Bukhvostov told
Poloff after the press conference that Belarusians know how
they and their friends voted, and so they know the elections
were falsified when the CEC claims only 6% voted for
Milinkevich. He thought this would make it more likely

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people would take to the streets to demonstrate. Bukhvostov
estimated that 30 to 32% actually voted for Milinkevich.
Bukhvostov speculated that the authorities did not use force
against the March 19 demonstrators because the U.S., EU and
Russia all warned Lukashenko against doing so. He also
thought there were internal politics, involved, as he said he
was certain Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov wanted to
respond to demonstrations violently. Bukhvostov also
maintained that the U.S. and EU could most effectively damage
Lukashenko by convincing Russia to drop its economic support
for him. Without Russian subsidies, Bukhvostov stated,
Lukashenko cannot survive.


Comment
--------------


7. (C) Milinkevich's next step is to try and get as large a
crowd of supporters into the streets of Minsk on March 20.
He exceeded many expectations on March 19 by drawing 10,000
to 12,000 people to October Square in the face of a very
heavy security force presence. There were additional
unconfirmed reports that another 6,000 tried to come to the
square but were blocked by police. However, the event ended
somewhat abruptly; after several speeches Milinkevich
dispersed the crowd. Milinkevich and his team have not
indicated if they have developed a plan for future
demonstrations or will let events take their course.
Krol