Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK288
2006-03-17 11:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Milinkevich Strong in Grodno

Tags:  PGOV PHUM BO 
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VZCZCXRO2753
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0288/01 0761144
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 171144Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4022
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0979
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000288 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Milinkevich Strong in Grodno

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000288

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Milinkevich Strong in Grodno

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Poloff recently visited the western city
of Grodno, hometown of opposition presidential candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich. Despite increasing harassment and
pressure from authorities, Milinkevich's regional campaign
leaders believe that Milinkevich would readily win an
honest election in the region. However, they explained
that the local government's ideological departments are
orchestrating the electoral falsification that will hand
the victory to Lukashenko. Milinkevich's team also
explained how Lukashenko's campaign is violating several
laws. Poloff also met with the local campaign head for
Aleksandr Kozulin, another presidential candidate. While
Kozulin's team faces the same pressures as does
Milinkevich's, Kozulin does not have a strong organization
backing him in this region. While in Grodno, Poloff asked
several people if they listened to the new broadcasts of
Radio Racija. Most said no, while one person claimed she
tried to tune in the station but was unable. End summary.


2. (U) On March 13, Poloff and the British DCM traveled to
Grodno, hometown of opposition presidential candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich and one of the two largest cities in
western Belarus. Poloff met with the campaign teams of
Milinkevich and Aleksandr Kozulin, the other opposition
presidential candidate. Poloff had requested meetings with
Lukashenko's campaign team and with the Oblast Election
Council. Although both initially agreed to meet, just
before the visit they both cancelled on the pretext that
Poloff and the British DCM had not yet received their
election accreditation from the GOB. However, Poloff did
confirm that Lukashenko's campaign headquarters is based in
the city executive committee building (city hall). Poloff
also visited the site of a Jewish cemetery where the GOB is
expanding a sports stadium (septel).


Milinkevich Strong in his Hometown
--------------


3. (C) Poloff met with Anatoly Khatsko, head of
Milinkevich's campaign for Grodno Oblast, and Sergey
Antusevich, head of his campaign for Grodno city. Both
were in good spirits and explained that, despite serious
efforts by the authorities to impede their work, their

campaign was successful in Grodno. Milinkevich had high
name recognition, aided by the fact that he had been deputy
mayor in the 1990s and by the quantity of negative
reporting about him in state media. They thought that
Milinkevich would easily win an honest election in Grodno,
and estimated he had 70% percent support. His support rose
to 90% among educated citizens. Both based this estimate
on their door-to-door campaigning; they said they were
surprised at the number of people who said immediately they
planned to vote for Milinkevich. They claimed Kozulin
would only win a small portion of the vote, and that
Kozulin's fiery television appearance had turned voters
away from him.


4. (C) Khatsko complained that campaigning was hampered by
the authorities' decision to allow candidates or their
proxies to meet with voters only in three locations, none
of which sat more than 200 people. When Milinkevich
visited Grodno on March 4, they said more than 2,000 turned
out to hear him. Antusevich showed a number of photos of
the event and of the regime's efforts to disrupt this
meeting. Police came to their headquarters the morning of
the event to tell them it was an illegal gathering; Khatsko
said he spent the previous evening driving around town to
prevent police from preemptively arresting him. He
explained that the deputy dean of Grodno State University
organized and led a counter demonstration with youth from
the pro-Lukashenko state-run NGO Belarusian Republican
Youth Movement (BRSM, or Lukamol). BRSM students came to
the rally with loudspeakers and drums and tried to disrupt
Milinkevich's speech.


Ideological Departments Prepare Falsification
--------------


5. (C) Both Khatsko and Antusevich explained that they
expect the regime to falsify the vote. In fact, they said
that a number of Milinkevich sympathizers, including the
wife of one of their campaign workers, have been drafted to
serve on local election commissions and are passing them
information about the regime's plans. Antusevich added
that election commission officials had to take an oath of

MINSK 00000288 002 OF 003


loyalty to the regime before being appointed. [Note: they
gave the example of one local polling station, located in a
small college. Eleven of the sixteen local election
commission members are staff at that college. The
authorities apparently figured it would be easier to
control a group that all worked together. However, several
of these people are professors who tacitly support
Milinkevich.] Falsification will not come from the
election commissions, but is being organized by the
ideological departments of local governments. Antusevich
claimed these departments have already prepared the voting
protocols determining how many votes each candidate will
receive. Milinkevich's team still plans to observe all
polling stations in Grodno on election day, and 20 to 30 of
them during early voting.


6. (C) However, the Milinkevich team believes the populace
is more aware now of how the regime will falsify the vote
than in previous elections, and is resisting. Antusevich
said there is now less pressure to vote early than in 2004,
and many people are frustrated with the regime. They know
how they and their friends plan to vote, and know it is a
lie when state media claims Lukashenko has 80% support.
Milinkevich's team in Grodno stated they are not planning
to send people to Minsk on election night to protest,
arguing that authorities will block trains and road
traffic. They claimed any change through street
demonstrations will depend on the residents of Minsk. The
thousand or so people they could send from Grodno would not
be enough to make a difference in Minsk.


Repression Growing
--------------


7. (C) Milinkevich's campaign team is facing increasing
repression as the election approaches. Both Khatsko and
Antusevich said they no longer answer their doors to
prevent police issuing them a summons. Authorities
recently arrested Antusevich's assistant as he left for
work. He was quickly sentenced to five days in jail for
allegedly urinating in public (Antusevich said his wife
testified in court, to no avail, that this was absurd as
her husband "went to the bathroom before he left home").


8. (C) In many cases police detain Milinkevich activists
for short periods to limit their contact with the public or
seize their campaign materials. According to Antusevich,
the week before factory guards at the Azot plant (Grodno's
largest employer) detained two Milinkevich activists for 30
minutes when they were trying to pass out material outside
the factory's gate. The guards apologized and let them go,
but only after shift change was over. Khatsko and
Antusevich were arrested at a rally outside Grodno, driven
by police into the border zone to the town of Ashmany,
where they were fined BYR 250,000 [USD 116] each for being
in the border zone without permissionQeven though police
had brought them there. Both also explained that just
before Poloff's arrival an independent journalist had tried
to interview the visiting head of the CIS observer mission.
Instead, security forces detained him and gave him a
choice, either they could take him to jail or they could
drive him four kilometers outside of town and drop him off.
The journalist chose being dumped outside town.


9. (C) To illustrate the depth of the problem, Antusevich
handed Poloff a list of 23 incidents Milinkevich activists
had with authorities in Schuchin (population 8,000) between
February 17 and March 12. Milinkevich activists in that
town have been summoned to speak to police and prosecutors
a number of times, several have been detained and others
have had their houses and cars searched.


10. (C) In many cases, Khatsko and Antusevich maintained
that police and court officials treat activists with
sympathy and tell them they plan to vote for Milinkevich.
However, these authorities are afraid to lose their jobs
and so must carry out the repressive acts. Antusevich
argued that many state officials are fed up with
Lukashenko, but continue to support him out of fear.


Legal Arguments
--------------


11. (C) Antusevich described legal research he had
conducted showing Lukashenko was illegally running for
president. Although the 2004 referendum removed all
mention of term limits from Article 81 of the Constitution,

MINSK 00000288 003 OF 003


Article 8 of the Law on the President still limits the
president to two five-year terms. Antusevich also showed
Article 70 of the Electoral Code, which insists the
incumbent president must take a leave of absence from his
duties during the election campaign. Lukashenko, seeking
his third term, has not done so.


Kozulin's Team, Not as Organized
--------------


12. (C) Poloff and British DCM also met with Valentin
Oskirko, head of Kozulin's campaign in Grodno. Oskirko
painted a picture that showed Kozulin did not have the
organization or resources in Grodno that Milinkevich does.
He lamented that a number of people the campaign employed
to collect nomination signatures were "provocateurs," who
actually submitted faked signatures of dead people.
Oskirko explained that Kozulin had held three rallies in
Grodno in two days, and had also addressed crowds in
Smorgon and Lida. At one rally in Grodno over 600 people
came to hear him speak. At another rally, Oskirko said no
one came, so Kozulin walked to a nearby market where he
held an impromptu rally for about 300 people.


13. (C) Oskirko complained that authorities are hindering
Kozulin's efforts to get his message out. At rallies in
Grodno and Lida, and again in Masty where Kozulin's deputy
spoke, groups of BRSM youth under the direction of
plainclothes police tried to disrupt the meetings. In
Grodno, a city of 300,000 people, Oskirko said the GOB only
authorized 23 places for placing campaign posters. [Note:
In contrast, Lukashenko's "For Belarus" posters were in
every store window.] After Oskirko complained to the
election commission, they were authorized to also place
materials inside 127 polling stations until just before
voting starts. However, Oskirko pointed out that few
voters enter polling stations before an election. He also
claimed that police and cleaning crews tear down opposition
campaign posters. Police have also seized Kozulin leaflets
in Lida and Grodno.


14. (C) Oskirko and another Kozulin activist in the office
said they could not guess how much support Kozulin has in
the region. One person estimated, based on his efforts
going door-to-door for Kozulin, that 17% support Lukashenko
and 16% support Kozulin, while 50% are firmly against
Kozulin. Oskirko claimed that Kozulin's television
appearances had led people to compare Kozulin to
Milinkevich, with Lukashenko out of the conversation.


15. (C) Oskirko mentioned that his campaign workers have
been asked by several people, mainly pensioners, "Is it
true that if we vote for Lukashenko the BNF [an opposition
party] will burn down our houses?"


Who Hears Radio Racija?
--------------


16. (C) Poloff asked those he met if they had listened to
Radio Racija, which recently started broadcasting from
Poland and Lithuania. Five people in Milinkevich and
Kozulin's offices said they did not know anyone who had
even tried, while one student said she had tried to tune it
in, but could not find the station.


Comment
--------------


17. (C) These meetings highlighted the sharp contrast
between the capabilities of the Milinkevich and Kozulin
teams. Granted, Grodno is Milinkevich's home turf, but his
campaign team appeared to be far better organized and more
active than Kozulin's. This difference likely holds true
across Belarus, if for no other reason than that
Milinkevich was nominated by a coalition of political
parties and NGOs, while Kozulin came from nowhere, took
over a faction of a political party, and started his
campaign without an established team. Milinkevich would
probably win an open election in Grodno, but Lukashenko is
not going to allow any open or honest election.


KROL