Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK286
2006-03-17 08:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Independent News Does Make a Difference

Tags:  PHUM KDEM BO 
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VZCZCXYZ0013
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0286/01 0760846
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 170846Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4019
INFO RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE 0330
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000286 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL/PHD CUMBERLAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/16
TAGS: PHUM KDEM BO
SUBJECT: Independent News Does Make a Difference


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

Ref: 05 Minsk 591

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000286

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL/PHD CUMBERLAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/16
TAGS: PHUM KDEM BO
SUBJECT: Independent News Does Make a Difference


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

Ref: 05 Minsk 591


1. (C) Under the auspices of a DRL Human Rights and
Democracy Fund (HRDF) small grant (reftel),the IISEPS
polling service conducted the second of six opinion polls
in mid-February (septel). IISEPS conducted the first such
grant in early December, and plans to conduct the third in
April. [Note: IISEPS was closed by the Supreme Court in
April 2005 and opinion polling is now strictly controlled
by the GOB. Therefore, please strictly protect the source
of this information.]


2. (C) As a corollary to the HRDF grant, the Czech
government gave USD 18,000 to the Vyasna human rights NGO
to distribute these polling results. After the first HRDF-
funded grant, Vyasna distributed 92,000 copies of
Belarusian Vestnik, a broadsheet newspaper containing the
polling results and analysis, across the country. Police
managed to seize another 8,000 copies of this paper from
Vyasna before they could be distributed. Vyasna is
currently attempting to distribute another 100,000 copies
of this paper with the results of the February poll.


3. (C) As a means of confirming Vyasna's distribution,
IISEPS head Oleg Manaev included a question in his February
poll asking how many people had seen a copy of Belarusian
Vestnik. A surprising 9.1% of IISEPS' 1,429 respondents
(130 people) said they had:

Did you receive a copy of Belarusian Vestnik with material
from an opinion poll conducted not long ago by independent
sociologists?

Yes 9.1%
No 90.0


4. (C) IISEPS tabulated the polling results of those who
had seen Belarusian Vestnik against those who had not, and
found that those who had were somewhat more supportive of
democratic change in Belarus. [Comment: Post cannot
exclude that those who read Belarusian Vestnik were already
more pro-democratic and inclined to reading independent
press/leaflets dropped in their mailbox.]

Belarusian Vestnik
Seen (130 ppl) Not Seen (1299 ppl)

Which is more important, preserving the current situation
in the country or change?

Preservation 47.2% 54.2%
Change 45.4 36.8

Do you trust opposition political parties?

Yes 32.9 18.5
No 49.7 59.6

In your view can their be an "Orange Revolution" in
Belarus, like there was in Ukraine?

Yes 23.5 10.8
No 67.9 77.8

Has A. Lukashenko fulfilled his responsibilities as
president well, and should be re-elected, or is it time to
give someone else a chance?

Re-elect Lukashenko 41.2 54.9
Someone else 49.9 35.6

How do you view Milinkevich?

Very positive 15.3 5.6
Somewhat positive 32.5 25.8
Somewhat negative 21.3 22.1
Very negative 6.7 8.3
Never heard of him 7.8 21.5

How would you vote if the ballot contained these four
presidential candidates?

Lukashenko 47.2 60.0
Milinkevich 22.7 15.9
Kozulin 7.1 6.3
Gaidukevich 11.1 3.9

Positive rating:
Lukashenko 48.9 58.8
Milinkevich 21.3 14.9

If you had to choose between union with Russia and joining
the European Union, which would you choose?

Union with Russia 53.9 56.9
European Union 33.5 27.1


Comment
--------------


5. (C) While these differences between those who had and
had not seen Belarusian Vestnik are not decisive, they do
illustrate what many of our contacts have told us, that
Belarusians are eager for alternative sources of
information. Moreover, this information can have an effect
in shaping the opinions of the Belarusian people.


KROL