Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK282
2006-03-17 07:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Milinkevich Campaign Manager Discusses Last-Minute

Tags:  PGOV PHUM BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4010
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000282 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Milinkevich Campaign Manager Discusses Last-Minute
Campaign Plans


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

REF: Minsk 270

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000282

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Milinkevich Campaign Manager Discusses Last-Minute
Campaign Plans


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

REF: Minsk 270


1. (C) Summary: On March 15, Sergey Kalyakin, campaign
manager for Ten Plus Coalition presidential candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich, provided Pol/Econ Chief an
assessment of the candidate's campaign rallies leading up
to the March 19 elections. Kalyakin stressed Milinkevich
and the campaign team were very pleased with their meetings
with voters, noting that an increasing number of
Belarusians are interested in listening to an alternative
view of Belarus' future and place in the world. Kalyakin
claimed that despite GOB pressure, Milinkevich's March 14
campaign rally in the eastern city of Gomel attracted some
6,000 Belarusians. The next major pre-election rally will
be a musical concert on March 18 at Bangalore Park in
Minsk. However, Kalyakin stressed the Milinkevich team is
not under any illusion that Milinkevich would beat
Lukashenko in a fair electoral race. On Election Day,
Milinkevich remains committed to holding a peaceful protest
rally against a flawed electoral process, and he has agreed
to work with opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin to
ensure maximum turnout. Kalyakin expects the GOB to engage
in "large-scale provocations" to disrupt the rally. End
Summary.

Campaign Rallies A Success
--------------


2. (C) Sergey Kalyakin, campaign manager for Ten Plus
Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, told Pol/Econ
Chief on March 15 that the Milinkevich team remains
extremely satisfied with the results of the campaign
rallies in Minsk and the regions. He noted that
Milinkevich's rallies in the eastern cities of Gomel and
Mozyr on March 14 attracted approximately 6,000 and 1,000
Belarusians, respectively. Kalyakin said Milinkevich and
the senior leadership of the campaign team, including
Kalyakin, deputy campaign manager Victor Kornyenko, and
head of the campaign's national committee (or shadow
government) Anotoly Lebedko, independently hold meetings
with voters all over the country. According to Kalyakin,
the Milinkevich team has met with roughly 10,000 voters in
the past three days, and the team is conducting around 10

rallies (small and large) a day.


3. (C) The next major pre-election rally will be a musical
concert in honor of Milinkevich on March 18 at Bangalore
Park in Minsk. The Belarusian Assembly of Democratic NGOs
is co-organizing the concert with the Milinkevich team.
Minsk city authorities apparently approved the request to
hold the concert at Bangalore Park. The concert will
feature musical groups that were banned by the GOB after
performing in a similar opposition concert in July 2004.

Dynamics Of The Campaign Rallies, GOB Disruptions
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Kalyakin noted the vast majority of those who
attend the rallies demonstrate considerable interest in the
Ten Plus proposals for a better Belarus, responding to the
speeches of Milinkevich and his team with enthusiastic
applauses. Kalyakin believes that the central campaign
theme of "freedom, truth, and justice" resonates well with
voters, but noted that rally attendees pose a wide range of
questions to the Ten Plus team, including questions on
education, relations with Russia and the West, and health
care. Kalyakin claimed an increasing number of Belarusians
are turning out for the campaign rallies because
democratic-minded voters are beginning to understand that
they - and not the pro-Lukashenko supporters - represent
the majority.


5. (C) Kalyakin said that although the pro-Lukashenko
Belarusian Republican Youth Union (BRSM) and veterans
organizations disrupt the rallies by raising pro-Lukashenko
banners and asking provocative questions, their disruptions
only underscore for attendees the repressive nature of the
regime. Kalyakin expressed frustration the campaign period
is soon coming to a close because he is convinced the
Milinkevich team would have been able to attract
significantly more voters to the democratic camp.

More Coordination With Opposition Candidate Kozulin
-------------- --------------


6. (C) On March 14, Milinkevich and opposition candidate

MINSK 00000282 002 OF 003


Aleksandr Kozulin agreed to work together up to and
immediately following Election Day. Kalyakin explained the
two campaign teams will coordinate on election monitoring,
development of a joint declaration on Election Day, and
organizing protest rallies. Both candidates decided to
remain in the race in an effort to maximize the number of
votes for the opposition.


7. When asked if Kalyakin now viewed Kozulin as a genuine
member of the opposition, the campaign manager asserted
Kozulin is indeed an opponent of Lukashenko. However,
Kalyakin remains convinced Kozulin is far from being a
democrat and would most likely design political system very
similar to Lukashenko's current system if Kozulin became
president.

Protest Rallies Will Be Against Flawed Electoral Process
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Kalyakin said the Ten Plus recognizes that
Milinkevich would likely not win the elections even in a
fair electoral race, but the purpose of the Election Day
protest rallies is to call attention to a fundamentally
flawed electoral process. The Milinkevich team has
concluded that in a fair electoral process, Lukashenko
would likely receive 43 - 50 percent of the vote and
Milinkevich would receive 28 - 33 percent. However,
Kalyakin said his team has received information from "GOB
insiders" that Lukashenko has already ordered the Central
Election Committee to release the following vote tally: 78
percent for Lukashenko, 8 percent for pro-Lukashenko MP
Sergey Gaidukevich, 4 percent for Milinkevich, and 3
percent for Kozulin. Such a gross distortion of the facts
would be wrong and intolerable, according to Kalyakin.
Moreover, the electoral process leading up to the elections
has seriously fallen short of international election
standards. Thus, regardless of the published vote tally on
March 19, Kalyakin said Milinkevich and Kozulin will appeal
to voters to "defend their choice."

Preparations for Election Day Rallies
--------------


9. (C) Kalyakin said preparations for a massive protest
rally on October Square in Minsk beginning at 8pm were on
schedule. The Milinkevich team produced and distributed
400,000 leaflets advertising the October Square rally.
Other organizations and civic initiatives, such as the
human rights NGO Charter 97, the youth group Zubr, and the
civic initiatives Khopets ("Enough"),as well as several
independent newspapers, have also been advertising the
rally (reftel). The team has assigned Milinkevich
supporters to stage protests outside of eight polling
stations in Minsk.


10. (C) Kalyakin was not willing to speculate on the
number of people he expects to participate in the Minsk
rallies, and he was realistic about the likelihood of an
overwhelming number of supporters showing up at October
Square, but he is convinced a surprising number of people
will participate. Kalyakin added that if the GOB tries to
prevent the opposition from gathering on October Square
(which is the most likely scenario),the Milinkevich team
has already worked out alternative protest scenarios. He
did not go into detail on the alternative plans.


11. (C) The Milinkevich team has developed a decentralized
system of protests for the regions - each regional
headquarters will be responsible for staging protests in
the squares and outside of several polling stations. This
way, Milinkevich supporters will be able to focus on their
respective neighborhoods and not on trying (perhaps in
vain) to travel to Minsk to participate in the Minsk
rallies.

Milinkevich Team Expects GOB Provocations
--------------


12. (C) The Milinkevich team fully expects the Belarusian
security forces to engage in "large-scale provocations"
during the October Square rally on Election Day. Kalyakin
recalled that in 1996 the regime brought out anti-riot
equipment such as water cannons to control protests
involving tens of thousands of Belarusians. The campaign
manager stressed the Ten Plus Coalition has been
underscoring the need for supporters to protest peacefully
and to avoid clashes with security forces, but Kalyakin
warned that Lukashenko was ready and willing to employ

MINSK 00000282 003 OF 003


violent measures to disperse a large protest rally.

"Let's Not Forget The Orange Revolution!"
--------------


13. (C) Kalyakin concluded his discussion of Election Day
events by noting that although the Milinkevich team is
playing on a seriously uneven playing field, they are still
"playing to win." Kalyakin stressed that even five days
prior to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine nobody could have
predicted the events would have unfolded the way they did.
The campaign manager argued the international community
should view Belarus in similar terms.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Sergey Kalyakin was considerably more upbeat than
we have seen him in a long time. Although he is a realist
and fully appreciates Lukashenko's resolve to preserve the
status quo, it is clear the frequent meetings with voters
have energized the campaign team. Kalyakin is probably
right when he said that if the Milinkevich team had more
time to engage voters and faced less harassment by the GOB,
the opposition could have persuaded more voters to support
an alternative candidate.

Krol