LUKASHENKO FEARS WEAK OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000028

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FEARS WEAK OPPOSITION


Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Political analyst Valeriy Karbalevich
explained that Lukashenko fears the opposition, even though
the opposition poses no real threat in the March elections.
Lukashenko, perhaps believing his regime's own propaganda,
seemingly has not decided whether to allow his two main
opposition rivals, 10 candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich and
social-democrat Aleksandr Kozulin, to make it onto the
ballot. Karbelevich thinks Lukashenko will either allow both
to run, to split the opposition vote, or will only register
the weaker candidate, Milinkevich. Despite initial promise,
Karbalevich argued that Milinkevich's campaign team has
failed so far to promote his candidacy. End summary.


No Threat, No Airtime
--------------


2. (C) Speaking with Econoff on January 12, independent
political analysts Valeriy Karbalevich speculated that
Lukashenko is afraid of the opposition's single candidate,
even though Lukashenko's ratings remain high and the
opposition poses no real threat. He added the observation
that so far state media has barely covered the pre-election
campaign. Only on January 11, he claimed, did state
television air the first small report on elections.
Karbalevich believes Lukashenko wants to avoid giving the
opposition candidates any airtime, even if negative, as that
would raise name recognition. Continuing the information
vacuum means voters only know Lukashenko.


Only Four Possible Candidates
--------------


3. (C) Karbalevich said only five of the seven current
candidates were likely to collect the needed 100,000
signatures. He said Lukashenko and Liberal-Democrat Sergey
Gaidukevich, a regime stooge, would certainly be registered
as candidates. Self-exiled nationalist Zenon Paznyak might
collect enough signatures, but will never be registered.
Paznyak has promised to return to Belarus if he is registered
as a candidate. Karbalevich believes that return would
generate much press, especially in Russia, which Lukashenko
does not want to happen.


4. (C) The other two likely to collect enough signatures are
10 candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, and Social-Democrat
Aleksandr Kozulin. Karbalevich believed Lukashenko and the
PA have not yet decided whether to register these two. He
thinks their decision would depend on their popularity at the
end of January. Karbalevich argued the GOB might register
both so as to split the opposition vote, or they might choose
to register only the weaker of the two. Somewhat
surprisingly, he claimed Milinkevich is the weaker candidate.
Milinkevich has placed himself as the opposition's
candidate, which Karbalevich claimed would limit his maximum
popular support to under 30%. Kozulin, on the other hand,
has worked in the GOB and can appeal to both the opposition
and the nomenclature. This makes him the greater threat to
Lukashenko.


Opposition Campaign Very Weak
--------------


5. (C) Karbalevich was very critical of Milinkevich's
efforts. He said Milinkevich's campaign team "went to sleep"
for three months after Milinkevich was chosen as a candidate
and were caught off-guard when Lukashenko announced early
elections. With elections two months away, Milinkevich still
does not have a message, a symbol, slogan or emblem.
Therefore his current travel around Belarus is useless, as he
does not leave voters with anything to talk about.


Explaining Lukashenko's Fear
--------------


6. (C) Despite all the evidence to the contrary, Karbalevich
claimed Lukashenko fears what the opposition, backed by the
West and potentially Russia, can do in the elections. He
said Lukashenko has fallen victim to his own propaganda. In
December, to support amendments to the criminal code, the
BKGB gave each MP an analysis that described multiple highly
fantastical western conspiracies aimed at Belarus.
Karbalevich maintained the BKGB, possibly in their
bureaucratic efforts to gain more resources and prestige,

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routinely inflate the external threat in briefings to
Lukashenko. Lukashenko therefore reacts in a manner
completely disproportionate to the threat, such as having
hundreds of riot police on hand to block 30 protestors.
Krol