DAS Kramer Discusses Elections with Milinkevich

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000274

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: DAS Kramer Discusses Elections with Milinkevich
Campaign Team

Reftels: A) Minsk 0200 B) 05 Minsk 1495 C) Minsk 0184

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On February 24, EUR DAS David Kramer met
with deputy campaign managers of the single opposition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign team Victor
Korneyenko and Aleksandr Dobrovolsky. Korneyenko confirmed
Milinkevich's plan to hold a rally on March 2, the same day
as President Lukashenko's Third All-Belarusian Assembly,
and laid out the plans for supporters to defend their vote
on Election Day. Korneyenko and Dobrovolsky discussed the
campaign's progress, noting Milinkevich's high name
recognition, as well as commenting on Milinkevich's and
Kozulin's February 22 appearances on state television.
Korneyenko relayed Milinkevich's major complaints with the
campaign process thus far, including the population's lack
of awareness about the upcoming elections, the skewed
coverage of the candidates in the state press, the Central
Election Committee's decision not to force Lukashenko to
take a leave of absence during the campaign, and the low
number of opposition members represented on the precinct
election commissions. Korneyenko defended Milinkevich's
foreign travel, including Korneyenko's recent trip to
Moscow, when Kramer commented that Milinkevich's voters are
in Belarus. Finally, Kramer reiterated U.S. interest in
Belarus, stressed the united U.S. and EU position on the
elections and pledged U.S. engagement with Belarusian
society regardless of the outcome of the elections. End
Summary.


2. (C) On February 24, EUR DAS David Kramer, accompanied
by Ambassador and Embassy notetakers, met with deputy
campaign managers Victor Korneyenko and Aleksandr
Dobrovolsky for 10 Plus Coalition candidate Aleksandr
Milinkevich's campaign team. At the time of the meeting,
Milinkevich was in the northern part of the country on a
campaign trip and campaign manager Sergei Kalyakin was in
Prague for the PACE conference to discuss the situation in
Belarus.

Milinkevich Plans Rally, Expects Problems
--------------


3. (C) Korneyenko confirmed that Milinkevich planned to
hold a rally in Freedom Square on March 2, the same day as
the Third All-Belarus Assembly (septel). [Note: Freedom
Square is located near the site of the Third All-Belarus
Assembly.] Korneyenko hoped to have 10,000-15,000
supporters at the rally, but expects that law enforcement
officials will take measures to decrease that number.
[Note: Post estimated that 2,000-3,000 people participated
in the event, while Milinkevich campaign team activists and
ODIHR observers believed there were 5,000 supporters
present.]


4. (C) Stressing that he was passing this message to all
parties, Kramer strongly underscored the importance of the
elections being concluded without any resort to force or
violence. He noted this message was mainly directed to the
Belarusian authorities, which should abide by its OSCE
obligations and allow people to peacefully protest.
However, Kramer reminded the campaign team that if they do
decide to conduct protests, they should be peaceful and
non-provocative.


5. (C) Korneyenko promised that they would try to
demonstrate peacefully, but also mentioned that it may not
be possible. Korneyenko fears that a violent or drunken
"protester" will be planted in the demonstration to start a
riot, giving the GOB the opportunity to respond with force.

Election Day Plans: Supporters to Flock to Polling Stations
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Korneyenko said that the Milinkevich campaign team
is encouraging Milinkevich supporters to go to their local
polling stations at 8 p.m. on Election Day. The team
thinks this will help prove the results of the elections
were falsified by showing the true number of people who
voted for Milinkevich. [Note: Previous plans from the

Milinkevich team included calling on Milinkevich supporters
to gather in Minsk around 10:00 p.m. following the mini-
protests at the polling stations, but Korneyenko did not
mention this idea to Kramer. Perhaps the team views such a
strategy as unrealistic, given the GOB pressures faced by
Milinkevich supporters on February 17, when trying to
gather in Minsk for the candidate registration ceremony.]


7. (C) Korneyenko said that the government is gearing up
to face protests on and after Election Day. Korneyenko
fears that the GOB will impose strict restrictions on
transportation, including ordering trains or subway trains
to pass through stations in Minsk without stopping.
Korneyenko expects that the GOB will close the center of
town in addition to the campaign headquarters of the
opposition.

Assessment of the Candidates' Television Performances
-------------- --------------


8. (C) When Kramer asked what the campaign team thought
about Kozulin's television appearance, Korneyenko replied
that the text of Kozulin's speech was brazen (ref A).
[Note: Kozulin aired Lukashenko's dirty laundry and made
bold accusations about the sitting president, including
that he has an illegitimate child and a mistress.]
Ambassador commented that Kozulin reminded him of
Lukashenko during his first presidential campaign in 1994.
While Korneyenko admitted that Kozulin's style might appeal
to some, Korneyenko claimed that most people do not believe
or trust Kozulin.


9. (C) When Kramer asked about Milinkevich's performance,
Korneyenko responded that Milinkevich talked about
important concepts but admitted that Milinkevich's speech
lacked energy. Korneyenko explained that Milinkevich was
nervous because he did not have much time to review the
information that his campaign team prepared for him.
Despite the 10 Plus Coalition candidate's lackluster
performance, Korneyenko claimed that the people still liked
Milinkevich.


10. (C) Kramer responded that the U.S. has been impressed
with Milinkevich's rise, but also stressed that the U.S.
supports a democratic process of free and fair elections
and not any one candidate.

Milinkevich's Numbers Are Good, But He Needs More Time
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Korneyenko said that Milinkevich is doing well in
the polls. Korneyenko reported that Milinkevich's name
recognition is at 60 percent according to Gallup polls. In
Minsk, Lukashenko and Milinkevich's numbers are close;
Lukashenko is polling at 33.5 percent and Milinkevich is
not far behind at 27.5 percent. [Note: Milinkevich's
positive numbers result from a poll that relies on name
recognition, not name recall. Since Milinkevich's name
recognition is high, the results might be slightly
inflated.] In the rural areas, however, Lukashenko leads
at 69.5 percent compared to Milinkevich's 12.5 percent.
Korneyenko reported that Kozulin's numbers were in the low
single digits. Korneyenko said that Milinkevich's polling
numbers exploded early and Korneyenko and Dobrovolsky
agreed that Milinkevich needs more time to win this
election. Regardless of the result of the elections,
Korneyenko said the 10 Plus Coalition will not go back over
the campaign and point fingers at who is to blame.
Instead, they will try to remain united after the
elections.

Campaign Team's Major Complaints
--------------


12. (C) Korneyenko reported that they are not very happy
with the way the campaign has proceeded. The campaign
headquarters had originally wanted 10,000 volunteers
working during the nomination phase to collect signatures,
but were only able to get 3,000 (ref B). Korneyenko made
repeated comments that Kozulin's team had more resources,
which makes it difficult for Milinkevich's team to

negotiate with Kozulin even if Milinkevich's team does have
better ideas.


13. (C) Kramer asked what points of concern should he raise
in his meeting later that day with the Central Election
Committee (CEC). Korneyenko immediately responded that
Kramer should ask why the CEC insists on a passive, almost
uneventful campaign. Korneyenko expressed his incredulity
about the low-level of awareness among the population about
the upcoming elections. He noted that the elections are
three weeks away and there are few signs in Minsk that
there is a campaign going on. He also explained that
volunteers are not able to campaign effectively because
local government authorities, who control where candidates
can gather and distribute information, assign the
opposition volunteers such obscure places to speak or
distribute information that that the information is not
reaching the people. Finally, Korneyenko complained about
the time the campaign team lost in the two weeks of dead
time from when the candidates submitted their nomination
signatures until they received their candidate
registrations.


14. (C) Korneyenko went on to complain about the state
press' coverage of the elections. He said that Lukashenko
receives hours of positive coverage in the state media
every week (ref C),while the little coverage that the
opposition gets is negative or neutral at best.
Dobrovolsky also added that access to the press is another
main problem. Dobrovolsky pointed out that candidates
cannot publish their platforms in the independent press
because it violates election laws as "illegal campaign
financing." Dobrovolsky also mentioned that the time slots
for the pre-recorded television segments were ineffective
since they broadcast during rush hour when most people are
not in front of a television.


15. (C) Korneyenko also noted that Lukashenko has not taken
a leave of absence, as he is required according to Article
77 of the Election Code. The rule states that any
candidate campaigning for President must take a leave of
absence from work after being registered. The law
specifies, however, that presidential incumbents seeking a
second term are exempt from the rule. Korneyenko
complained that Lukashenko is seeking a third term, not a
second, and therefore he should be required to take a leave
of absence. Korneyenko claimed that CEC head Lidya
Yermoshina's response to these allegations was that the
Election Code has not been updated to reflect the November
referendum, which allows a President to run for a third
term. Yermoshina continued that while the law specifically
mentions a second term and not a third, the "spirit of the
law" implies that Lukashenko does not have to take a leave
of absence. [Note: This position contradicts Yermoshina's
and the CEC's prior rulings where they have closely
followed the letter of a law, and not its spirit.]


16. (C) Korneyenko also asked Kramer to raise the issue of
skewed representation on the precinct electoral commissions
where only one out of 74,000 commission workers was a
member of an opposition party.

Campaign Team Defends Milinkevich's Foreign Travel
-------------- --------------


17. (C) Kramer said that the West is impressed with
Milinkevich's rise and the impression that he has made
abroad, but reminded him that people outside of Belarus
cannot vote in the upcoming elections. Kramer encouraged
the campaign team to focus Milinkevich's efforts on
Belarus. Korneyenko stated that Milinkevich's trips abroad
helped him gather support from Belarusians as well.
According to Korneyenko, millions of Belarusians saw
Euronews' coverage of Milinkevich's European visit, which
helped present a favorable image of Milinkevich as a
candidate who can meet and converse comfortably with
foreign leaders.


QRussian Analysts Wash Their Hands of Milinkevich
-------------- ---



18. (C) Korneyenko just returned from Moscow where he met
mainly with analysts, including Vladimir Ryzhkov, Slava
Nikinov, Sergei Karaganov and Nikita Belykh, at a
conference entitled "Belarus: The Apple of Contention
Between Russia and the West." Korneyenko said that Russia
is trying to make Belarus a point of contention between
Russia and the West, forcing Belarus to choose.
Milinkevich's campaign team tried to persuade the
participants that Belarus does not have to choose, but can
work with both. Korneyenko reported that the analysts
already have their minds made up about the elections in
Belarus; they have little information and they will not get
any more. According to Korneyenko, Karaganov and Nikinov
have "reliable sources" in Belarus telling them 90 percent
of the population support Lukashenko.

Kramer Reaffirms U.S. Long-term Commitment to Belarus
-------------- --------------


19. (C) Kramer stressed to the members of the campaign team
that the EU and the United States are very interested in
Belarus and remain united on the elections in Belarus.
Kramer renewed U.S. commitment to Belarus and pledged that
whatever the outcome of the elections, the U.S. will
continue to engage Belarusian civil society and political
opposition.

KROL