Milinkevich Team Discusses Campaign Activities

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000270

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Milinkevich Team Discusses Campaign Activities
Ahead of Elections

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

REF: Minsk 185


1. (C) Summary: On March 6, Victor Kornyenko, deputy
campaign manager for Ten Plus Coalition presidential
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, provided for P/E Chief an
overview of the campaign team's plans ahead of the March 19
elections. Commenting on the March 2 rally near Freedom
Square, Kornyenko said the rally was a relatively
successful event, considering the myriad obstacles imposed
by the Belarusian authorities. Kornyenko noted the
campaign team was extremely satisfied with the results of
Milinkevich's numerous trips to the regions, and planned to
organize two more trips prior to Election Day. The team
has also organized a large rally in Minsk on March 12 and
another in the city of Mozyr on March 14. In an effort to
coordinate activities, the Milinkevich team and several
NGOs and civic initiatives agreed to convene a large
protest rally on March 19 in Minsk. Noting that U.S. NGO
IRI recently informed the Milinkevich team that conducting
an exit poll may no longer be possible, Kornyenko stressed
an exit poll was essential to convincing Belarusians to
participate in the March 19 protest rally. Kornyenko
stressed Milinkevich would have to work extra hard to keep
the coalition together following the elections. End
Summary.


March 2 Rally Was Good, Considering the Obstacles
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2. (C) Although Milinkevich's deputy campaign manager
Victor Kornyenko was disappointed a larger number of
supporters did not participate in the March 2 rally near
Freedom Square, he was still pleased to see 2,000 to 5,000
show up (see septel). (Note: Kornyenko had previously told
us he expected 10,000 to 15,000 to participate in the
rally.) Kornyenko told P/E Chief the level of
participation was encouraging, considering that the GOB
went to extraordinary lengths to prevent the rally from
taking place on Freedom Square, including erecting numerous
erecting human and physical barriers. When asked to what
extent the presence and intimidation tactics of Belarusian
security forces frightened Milinkevich supporters,
Kornyenko commented he did not believe the supporters were
intimidated at all. He noted that security forces in
previous years responded to rallies with considerably more
hostility, and occasionally with violence.

Regional Trips Are A Success, Two More Planned
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3. (C) Kornyenko said the campaign team was very satisfied
with Milinkevich's trips to the regions. On March 4 and 5,
Milinkevich traveled to the Grodno, Brest, and Minsk
regions to meeting with voters in several cities, including
in his hometown city of Grodno (on the western border of
Belarus). The largest gathering was in Grodno, where
Kornyenko said Milinkevich spoke to a crowd of 2,000 voters
for over an hour. Belarusian security forces barred
Milinkevich from speaking in the city's concert hall, as
had been originally requested, so Milinkevich conducted the
meeting directly outside the concert hall. In smaller
cities such as Volykovoysk, Milinkevich was allowed to hold
the gathering in the city's Central House of Culture, but
there was room only for 200 people. However, the local
authorities allowed the Milinkevich team to connect
loudspeakers outside so that up to 500 people could hear
him speak.


4. (C) Given the relative success of the campaign rallies
in the regions, Kornyenko said the campaign team has
planned two more campaign trips for Milinkevich in the
Brest and Gomel regions during the weeks of March 6 and
March 13. Deputy campaign manager Vintsuk Vyachorka, who
most recently accompanied Milinkevich to the regions,
separately told P/E Chief that the atmosphere in all the
meetings with voters is surprisingly positive. Vyachorka
said he is convinced that an increasing number of voters
are willing to openly advocate for change. Following his
March 4 and 5 regional trip, Milinkevich told journalists
that, "our [the campaign team's] view is realistic, but we
can see that the nation is awakening. People have begun to
think and want changes."

Kozulin Seeking Help From Milinkevich In The Regions?
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5. (C) Kornyenko noted members of opposition candidate
Aleksandr Kozulin's campaign team have approached the
Milinkevich team to discuss the possibility of organizing
joint rallies on regional campaign trips. Kornyenko said
the "incentive" for Milinkevich to agree to such a request
is that Kozulin would consider joining Milinkevich to form
a unified opposition following the elections. Kornyenko
asserted that in reality the Kozulin team lacked the
organizational capacity, human resources, and voter appeal
to schedule frequent and effective campaign rallies all
over the country, and thus was hoping the Milinkevich team
would be a "team player." Kozulin's team apparently
threatened that Kozulin may show up at Milinkevich's rally
anyway if Milinkevich refused to cooperate. (Note:
Kornyenko believes Kozulin in the end will withdraw from
the race. According to Kornyenko, Kozulin is becoming more
convinced that he would not get a large number of votes
even in a fair electoral race and therefore will take such
a step to avoid being labeled a "losing candidate.")

Upcoming Large Campaign Rallies
--------------


6. (C) Kornyenko said the campaign team is planning two
more massive campaign rallies - one on March 12 in Minsk at
the Lidova Sports Palace and another on March 14 in the
southeastern city of Mozyr. Kornyenko was not willing to
speculate on turnout for either of these rallies, but he
noted that the campaign team distributed 50,000 leaflets
for the March 12 rally in Minsk. The campaign team aims to
hold a number of smaller campaign events in several movie
theatres in Minsk on March 12, 17, and 18, but they have
yet to receive permission from the local authorities.


7. (C) Kornyenko noted the Belarusian Assembly of
Democratic NGOs, an independent umbrella organization
representing over 200 de-registered NGOs, was planning a
musical concert at Bangalore Square in Minsk on March 18,
one day before Election Day. The Milinkevich team is
involved in seeking a permit from the Minsk city
authorities to hold the concert at this location, but
Kornyenko was not able to provide more details.

Election Day Plans
--------------


8. (C) Fielding Supporters At Polling Stations Reexamined

Kornyenko noted that earlier plans to call on Milinkevich
supporters to go to their local polling stations around the
country to protest possible election fraud have been
modified yet again. The campaign team now believes
organizing such an effort is unrealistic, and more
attention should be focused on organizing a massive rally
in Minsk. At best, the Milinkevich team will call on
supporters to defend their vote at eight precinct elections
commissions in the regions.


9. (C) Ten Plus, Civic Organizations Agree On Joint Rally

Kornyenko said the Ten Plus Coalition has reached an
agreement with the leaders of several NGOs and civic
initiatives on the need to hold a united rally at October
Square on March 19 at 8pm. The most active civil society
groups or initiatives, including human rights NGO Charter
97, youth NGO Zubr, the organizers of the Khopets
("Enough") campaign, and the youth NGO Right Alliance
agreed that it was more effective to concentrate their
efforts on a single rally rather than organizing several
independent rallies on different days (reftel). However,
each group would use their own letterhead (and not that of
the Milinkevich team) and their own methods for advertising
the March 19 rally. Kornyenko added that the organizers of
the Khopets campaign, which aims to organize "mini-Maidans"
in several cities around the country, informed him they
will also try to mobilize voters on March 20.

Exit Poll In Jeopardy?
--------------


10. (C) Kornyenko recently heard from the IRI
representative in Vilnius that conducting an exit poll may
no longer be possible, due to the increasingly hostile
political environment in Belarus. Kornyenko understood the
complications involved with conducting an exit poll, but he
warned that without one the Milinkevich team would not be
able to offer voters independent proof that the Lukashenko

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regime rigged the elections, thus making it difficult to
stage a large protest rally on Election Day.

Tension In The Milinkevich Team Over Jeans Campaign
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11. (C) When asked about the level of coordination between
Zubr's and Charter 97's "Jeans" campaign and the
Milinkevich campaign, Kornyenko noted that Milinkevich
announced his strong support of the Jeans campaign during
the candidate's March 2 campaign rally and stated he would
always wear a blue scarf and/or blue tie as a symbol of his
solidarity. (Note: The Jeans campaign is an effort by Zubr
and Charter 97 to encourage supporters of democratic change
to unite by wearing denim clothing and/or Jeans campaign
paraphernalia.) However, Kornyenko revealed that he and
other members of the campaign team were disappointed with
Milinkevich's decision to personally endorse the Jeans
campaign.


12. (C) Kornyenko noted Milinkevich did not consult his
campaign team before making the announcement. Furthermore,
the Milinkevich campaign team remains unconvinced that
aligning Milinkevich with a particular color will help him
gather more popular support in Belarus. Kornyenko added
that since Milinkevich's decision to endorse the Jeans
campaign, Charter 97 and Zubr sent to Milinkevich
headquarters a box full of Jeans ribbons for distribution.
(Note: Kornyenko was clearly upset that Charter 97 and Zubr
wanted the Milinkevich team to help them distribute the
ribbons.)

Following Elections, Unity Will Be A Big Challenge
-------------- --------------


13. (C) Kornyenko admitted that following the elections,
Milinkevich will have to work extra hard to keep the Ten
Plus Coalition from fragmenting. He stressed Anatoly
Lebedko's United Civic Party (UCP) still has not been able
to accept the results of the October 2-3 Congress of
Democratic Forces, when Lebedko lost the presidential
nomination to Milinkevich by only eight votes, and said the
UCP was the most likely organization to defect from the
coalition following the elections. Kornyenko noted that
even during the campaign, the Milinkevich team has
encountered serious setbacks in large cities like Grodno,
Brest, and Gomel because of infighting among political
parties. That said, Kornyenko stressed UCP leader Lebedko
has demonstrated considerable support to Milinkevich's
candidacy. The deputy campaign manager concluded that the
more Milinkevich increased his name recognition and support
among voters, the more likely the coalition would remain
united behind Milinkevich after March 19.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The Ten Plus Coalition team has come a long way
since the October 2-3 Democratic Congress. Milinkevich and
his campaign team have dedicated considerable attention and
resources to establishing contact with voters all over the
country. The team's resolve to carry out campaign
activities in Minsk and in the regions, despite blatant
attempts by the GOB to restrict or prevent their
activities, is impressive.


15. (C) However, the elections are less than two weeks
away, and the regime is trying hard to keep Belarusians'
attention off the elections and the opposition candidates
and focused on Lukashenko's accomplishments. Milinkevich's
rallies and Kozulin's recent clashes with Belarusian
security forces have created a certain excitement, but so
far Minsk and much of the rest of Belarus remain devoid of
"election fever." The Milinkevich team seems to be fully
aware that despite their best efforts, organizing massive
popular support for democratic change on Election Day will
be extremely difficult. While not giving up on prospects
for change on March 19, the Milinkevich team is looking at
the equally hard task of maintaining a strong, united
opposition to continue the struggle beyond Election Day.

Krol