Opposition Candidate Released From Detention,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000269

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Opposition Candidate Released From Detention,
Continues Activities

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

REF: A) Minsk 223, B) Minsk 191


1. (C) Summary: On March 2, opposition presidential
candidate Aleksandr Kozulin was released from October
Police Station between 1700 and 1800 local time (ref A).
Following his release, Kozulin, his wife, and several
members of Kozulin's political party went to the site of
opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign rally
and gave an impromptu press conference to nearby
journalists on his next steps. Kozulin, who had bruises on
his head and a split lip, confirmed he did not feel well.
The state prosecutor filed two counts of "hooliganism"
against Kozulin, which could result in his disqualification
as a candidate, but Kozulin vowed to continue his campaign
activities. Central Election Committee Secretary Nikolai
Lozovik told P/E Chief on March 3 that the CEC will most
likely allow Kozulin to remain in the electoral race. End
Summary


Only Lawyer Allowed To See Kozulin In Detention
-------------- --


2. (SBU) The police at the October Police Station not only
barred Kozulin's family and supporters from seeing him,
OSCE-ODIHR election observers and political analyst
confirmed they were also not allowed to enter the building.
ODIHR long-term observers told Emboffs on March 2 they made
several unsuccessful attempts to enter the October,
Central, and Lenin Police Stations, where 50-60 Kozulin
activists and journalists were detained. At around 1600,
ODIHR observers confirmed that OSCE Ambassador to Minsk Ake
Peterson (not affiliated with the ODIHR mission) was also
denied entry to the October Police Station. Only one of
Kozulin's lawyers, Dmitry Goryachko, was allowed to enter
the police station. Goryachko discussed with police
investigators the possible criminal charges against
Kozulin, and then was able to see the candidate.


Prior To Release, Kozulin Campaign Team Gives Press
Conference
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) At 1545, Kozulin's press spokeswoman Nina
Shidlovskaya told Emboffs that she earlier spoke with
Kozulin by phone and he claimed he did not need medical
attention. Kozulin did indicate that he felt pain in the
kidney area (where he was presumably kicked). Shidlovskaya
told the press that an ambulance was called for Kozulin,
but the ambulance crew was denied entry to the police
station. The doctor on call at the police station
reportedly examined Kozulin and concluded that he was in
satisfactory condition.


4. (SBU) At 1600 local time, campaign manager Myacheslav
Grib and Kozulin's wife Irina gave a press conference for
journalists and international observers at Kozulin's
campaign headquarters. Irina confirmed she spoke with her
husband twice while he was in detention and noted that she
could tell he was in pain. Clearly despondent, Irina said
she was comforted by Kozulin's optimism and determination
to keep up the struggle against an unjust system. Grib
made a public appeal to State Prosecutor Peter Miklashevich
to open a criminal case against Special Riot Police head
Colonel Dmitry Pavlichenko and those who physically
assaulted Kozulin, his supporters, and journalists at the
Palace of the Railway Workers.


5. (C) Following the press conference, Kozulin's aid Oleg
Volchek told P/E Chief that on February 27 Kozulin
personally delivered formal written complaints to State
Prosecutor Miklashevich regarding the BKGB's illegal
surveillance of Kozulin and the February 17 altercation
between Kozulin and Belarusian security forces at the
National Press Center (ref B). Volchek claimed that during
the meeting Kozulin warned Miklashevich to take action on
these complaints or he would organize public demonstrations
to denounce Belarusian security forces as death squads.
Miklashevich reportedly assured Kozulin he would "take
care" of the delivered complaints. (Comment: Perhaps the
March 2 beating of Kozulin is what the State Prosecutor had
in mind when he said he would address Kozulin's
grievances.)



MINSK 00000269 002 OF 003


Kozulin Released From Detention, Criminal Case Initiated
-------------- --------------


6. (U) Kozulin was released from the October Police
Station at 1740 local time. Kozulin's press secretary told
the press Kozulin was in bad physical condition, including
bruises to his head and face. Kozulin's lawyer Goryachko
confirmed the candidate was charged with two counts of
"hooliganism": one for the February 17 incident at the
National Press Center and one for his refusal to leave the
premises of the Palace of the Railroad Workers on March 2.


Detained Campaign Supporters and Journalists Released
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Kozulin aid Oleg Volchek reported to Post that
all of the 50-60 campaign activists and journalist who were
standing outside October Police Station and in Freedom
Square on March 2 were released the same day. Kozulin
campaign team members reported that up to 40 activists and
journalists were detained at Freedom Square and 12-20
people were detained outside the October Police Station.
Press reports indicate a number of journalists were
assaulted at the Palace of the Railway Workers and outside
the October Police Station. A journalist from Reuters and
another from Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) were hospitalized.
The Reuters journalist was released from the hospital on
March 2, and the KP journalist remains in the hospital with
a concussion. KP reported that the spokesperson for the
Ministry of Interior reportedly visited the KP journalist
to apologize for the incident and to inquire into the
possibility that the journalist's injuries resulted from
falling in the snow.


Kozulin Shows Up At Milinkevich Rally, Gives Separate Press
Conference
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Following his release, Kozulin went to the site
of 10 Plus opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's
campaign rally (see septel). Kozulin's campaign manager
Grib said Kozulin did not participate in Milinkevich's
rally, but "was in the area and decided to observe the
event." Press reports indicate that approximately 10
minutes after Milinkevich's rally ended, Kozulin gave an
impromptu press conference to journalists who were covering
the rally. Kozulin confirmed that he was in pain,
particularly his head, and that he faced two counts of
hooliganism.


9. (C) Kozulin noted that it was likely the Central
Election Committee would disqualify him as a candidate
because of these charges, but he vowed to continue his
campaign to seek admittance to the Third All Belarus
Assembly as the "people's delegate." Kozulin indicated he
would again seek registration to participate as a delegate
in the All Belarus Assembly. (Note: Kozulin's campaign
advisors told P/E Chief they have advised their candidate
to avoid doing something so "senseless" and dangerous, but
they recognized Kozulin will in the end do what he wants to
do.)


Campaign Team Files Complaints For March 2 Incidents
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Kozulin's aid Volchek talked to P/E Chief while
Volchek waited for his appointment at the October District
Prosecutor's Office. Volchek planned to submit formal
complaints for the March 2 beatings, arrests, and the use
of firearms in an attempt to detain Kozulin supporters.


Kozulin Likely To Remain A Candidate, Pre-Recorded Remarks
Edited
-------------- --------------


11. (C) On March 3, Central Election Committee Nikolai
Lozovik told P/E Chief he did not believe the criminal
charges against Kozulin would be enough to disqualify him
as a candidate. The CEC official noted that until Kozulin
was found guilty of hooliganism and sentenced in a court of
law, which could take up to several weeks, the CEC did not
have a legal basis to remove Kozulin's name from the
ballot. Lozovik added that the CEC is a "liberal
institution" that is not interested in disqualifying

MINSK 00000269 003 OF 003


candidates.


12. (U) Despite speculation by Kozulin's campaign team,
Belarusian State Television (BT) broadcast the candidate's
pre-recorded remarks at 1800 local time, suggesting the CEC
(for now) will allow Kozulin to contest the elections.
However, Kozulin's campaign manager Grib confirmed BT
edited the candidate's remarks, specifically Kozulin's
claim that Lukashenko's leadership qualities originate from
when he worked as a prison guard and that the President
violated nepotism laws by placing his two sons in formal or
informal positions of authority.


Comment
--------------


13. (C) Kozulin seems committed to his strategy of
"unconventional" campaigning, despite the brutal assault
and detention. The Kozulin campaign strategy is
fundamentally based on smearing President Lukashenko (and
his family) and provoking clashes with Belarusian security
forces. Given that Kozulin's campaign manager recently
admitted to P/E Chief that the extent of Kozulin's regular
campaign activities have mainly involved preparing for his
two TV broadcasts on February 17 and March 2, headline-
grabbing public statements and actions may be the only card
Kozulin can play. Moreover, we cannot exclude the
possibility Kozulin may be seeking disqualification from
the electoral race, or at least to be beaten up and jailed,
in an effort to become the country's next political martyr
and hero. If the position of the CEC is any indicator,
Lukashenko, perhaps recognizing Kozulin's plan, has decided
to keep Kozulin in the race, for now.


14. (C) The impact of this strategy on voters remains
unclear. While many observers and analysts believe
Kozulin's approach is more in the style of Lukashenko and
therefore more effective with typical Belarusian voters,
others believe Kozulin is simply a clown and falls far
short of Lukashenko's ability to develop strong relations
with voters all over the country (see septel). On the
other hand, the GOB has clearly demonstrated it will
respond in kind to Kozulin's provocative tactics. During
his March 2 remarks at the All Belarus Assembly,
Lukashenko, without mentioning names, noted the Kozulin
incident, saying "they [Kozulin and his supporters] were
determined to break into this assembly with their marine
training. They started scuffling, beat up women, and
banged against marines who let them have it." (Note:
Kozulin was a former marine.)

KROL