Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK266
2006-03-14 13:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

EUR DAS Kramer Meets Analysts, Civil Society

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL BO 
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VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0266/01 0731340
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 141340Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3970
RUEHBS/USMISSION USEU BRUSSELS 0059
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0946
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000266 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: EUR DAS Kramer Meets Analysts, Civil Society
Leaders and Students

Ref: Minsk 192

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000266

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/16
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: EUR DAS Kramer Meets Analysts, Civil Society
Leaders and Students

Ref: Minsk 192

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Visiting EUR DAS David Kramer met with
political analysts, civil society leaders, and students on
February 24 to discuss the upcoming presidential elections
and the accompanying GOB harassment. Analysts noted
Russia's change in policy from previous campaigns to
support President Lukashenko from the onset of the election
campaign and the opposition's inability to lead the country
in the slim chance that they would win the election. Civil
society leaders doubted the possibility of protests during
the election due to increasing arrests of opposition
activists and lack of independent media. Students noted
the unprofessional manner of the GOB's propaganda, but
asked DAS Kramer to explain U.S. criteria in determining
whether an election is democratic and opined that countries
must find their own path to development. End Summary.

--------------
Analysts Speak
--------------


2. (C) On February 24, Kramer met with Belarusian political
analysts Oleg Manaev of the IISEPS sociological polling
center, and Valery Karbalevich and Leonid Zaiko from the
Strategy think tank. Responding to a question from Manaev,
Kramer opened by describing USG efforts to date to engage
Russia on Belarus. He said that the GOR seems to have made
up its mind to support Lukashenko, but Kramer and Under
Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns asked Moscow

SIPDIS
on a recent visit to reinforce with Minsk that any use of
violence is completely unacceptable.

Moscow Supports Lukashenko
--------------


3. (C) Karbalevich commented that Moscow is taking a very
different position than it did in earlier Belarusian
elections. He said that in the 2001 presidential
elections, Moscow took a good look at all the candidates
before Putin decided to support Lukashenko a month before
voting. In the 2004 parliamentary elections and
presidential term-limit referendum, Russian press remained
critical of the GOB and the official election results
through the process. In contrast, now Moscow has made it

very clear, through pubic statements and cheap natural gas,
that it supports Lukashenko. Karbalevich argued that
Moscow fears a color revolution in Minsk and will defend
Lukashenko to the end, even if this leads to serious
conflict with the West. Zaiko echoed this argument,
claiming that a year ago some in Moscow supported pro-
democracy forces within the former Soviet Union. Now,
Putin is clearly supporting Lukashenko. Zaiko maintained
Russia views the March presidential election as strategic,
hoping it will initiate a conservative wave across the FSU.

Candidate Strategies
--------------


4. (C) A few days before this meeting state television, as
mandated by the Election Code, allowed each candidate 30
minutes of airtime. Kozulin devoted his time to a fiery
attack on Lukashenko. Karbalevich noted there had been no
official reaction to Kozulin's broadside, and argued that
Lukashenko was in shock and does not know how to respond.
He said that the politicized public seemed to prefer
Kozulin's broadcast, but that regular people liked
Milinkevich's better. Karbalevich criticized Milinkevich
for spending his television time giving concrete answers to
questions from the public, rather than trying to present
any alternate program. Manaev stated this is because
Milinkevich has no plan in case he wins the elections. The
United Civic Party, part of Milinkevich's 10 Plus
coalition, does have detailed economic plans (libertarian
free market). However, other 10 Plus members, such as the
Belarusian Popular Front and the Social Democrats support
more of a statist/Soviet economic model. If he wins,
Milinkevich would have to choose one of these paths. For
now, this fissure is preventing him from being able to
articulate a strong program.


5. (C) Manaev and Zaiko argued that Kozulin is still
thinking of dropping out of the race early. Such a move
would be preferable to trailing Milinkevich in the polls,
and would allow him to remain a credible presidential
candidate in the future. They agreed that Kozulin fancies
himself to be the candidate of Russia and the nomenklatura;
however they said Russia does not see any serious
challenger to Lukashenko. They also agreed that, despite
his campaign smear tactics, Kozulin is not what Lukashenko
was when he was elected in 1994. At that time Lukashenko
had spent a year working with the populace, which Kozulin
has not done. Even so, he is likely to win more votes than
will Gaidukevich.

What Economic Miracle?
--------------


6. (C) Zaiko stated that Lukashenko called for early
elections partially because of future economic risks.
There are rumors Russia will raise gas prices for Belarus
in mid-year, and the currently favorable external market
could change. A fall in international oil prices would
especially hurt Belarus. Domestically, he said that
consumption is down and that salaries are high for the
region. Belarusian banks are facing some problems, even if
there is no risk of a meltdown, and January's cold snap
caused the state to spend too much money on energy.

Repression
--------------


7. (C) Manaev opined that the recent arrests of NGO
activists were just the beginning of the regime's
repression. He believes the GOB will use targeted strikes
against certain NGOs to destroy the opposition's ability to
observe the election and challenge official results
(reftel). The regime will ensure that, at least
officially, the opposition candidates get less than 10% of
the vote. If they were known to even reach 30%, that would
tell the Belarusian people there is an alternative to
Lukashenko. Such an outcome is unacceptable to the regime.
Karbalevich pointed out that in 2001 three journalists were
arrested after the election. This year he expects many
more people to be arrested.


8. (C) Karbalevich predicted that if 3,000 to 5,000
protesters turned out after Election Day, the GOB would not
resort to violence. If more took to the streets,
Lukashenko would feel threatened and would use force. A
staunch Lukashenko supporter, Colonel Pavlichenko, commands
a brigade of police in Minsk that would stop at nothing to
defend Lukashenko's victory. If exit polling shows that it
was genuinely a close race, then people would protest
falsification. On the other hand, Karbalevich stressed
that no one would take to the streets if it was clear no
opposition candidate got a majority of the votes.

Popularity and the Press
--------------


9. (C) Manaev stated that Lukashenko is likely to receive
around 60% of the vote, and Kozulin and Milinkevich would
together receive around 30%. The rest would be for
Gaidukevich or would be genuinely spoiled ballots. In
Minsk, Lukashenko would get 50% to the opposition's 40%.
He agreed these numbers could change if the opposition has
steady and continuous access to the media, but they do not.
In a recent success, Manaev explained that Milinkevich's
travels to Europe were covered by the Russian-language
service of EuroNews. These broadcasts reached an estimated
one million Belarusians, which far outweighs all those
reached by independent newspapers and foreign radio.
Manaev suggested that further EuroNews coverage could be
the best way to advertise for Milinkevich, however he said
he understands the French editor of EuroNews, in Lyons, is
against Belarusian coverage for some unknown reason.

--------------
Civil Society Leaders Doubt Change Possible
--------------


10. (C) Kramer met with ZUBR press secretary Aleksandr
Atroschenkov, Perpektiva NGO leader Anatoly Shumchenko,
Belarusian Helsinki Commission (BHC) Head Tatiana Protko,
Head of the Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ)
Zhanna Litvina, and Vitebsk grassroots activist Olga
Karach. Kramer once again condemned violence during
Election Day, but stated that people had a right to
demonstrate peacefully.

Belarusians Not Ready for Protests
--------------


11. (C) Karach claimed Belarusians were not ready to
contest election results because if they were not willing
to demand better jobs and lower utility costs, then they
were definitely not ready to demand political rights. ZUBR
press secretary Atroschenkov disagreed, predicting
thousands of Belarusian youth would take to the streets,
but his comment was met with laughter from the other civil
society leaders.

GOB Has the Media, and Hence, Controls the People's Minds
-------------- --------------


12. (C) BAJ Head Litvina told Kramer that the GOB has
liquidated most of Belarus' remaining independent media,
leaving the opposition candidates limited opportunities to
gain publicity and counter the state media's smear
campaign. According to recent BAJ monitoring of the state
press, Lukashenko gets most of the coverage and is shown in
a positive light, whereas Milinkevich and Kozulin receive
little coverage, and it is always negative. If the news is
not praising Lukashenko or discrediting the opposition, it
is exploiting Belarus' stability and convincing the
population that the presidential elections will be free and
fair. Karach noted that many Vitebsk citizens had
complained to her about authorities forcing people to sign
in support of Lukashenko. However, the same people who
complained still believe the elections will be democratic.
According to Karach, this is the result of the state-
controlled media.

GOB Continues to Detain Activists
--------------


13. (C) The civil society leaders reported an increase in
detentions and arrests of political activists.
Atroschenkov passed Kramer a list of numerous police
detentions and brutalities against ZUBR activists. BHC Head
Protko predicted BHC would be forced to pay a USD 75,000
fine and feared she would soon be jailed for tax evasion.

U.S. Needs To Pressure Russia
--------------


14. (C) The civil society leaders thanked Kramer for U.S.
support, but claimed that U.S. resolutions and public
statements against Belarus no longer worked. The USG
needed to do more to pressure the Lukashenko regime,
including focusing more attention on the Kremlin's support
of Lukashenko, if democratic change is to occur in Belarus.
Protko opined that the Kremlin is using Belarus as a
testing ground for political policies that President
Vladimir Putin would later implement in Russia. [Comment:
Post has heard this from several sources.] Litvina cited
Russian Defense Minister Ivan Ivanov's recent statements
that Russia was prepared to prevent an uprising in Belarus.
If the U.S. wanted to support democracy in Belarus, it
would have to pressure Russia.

--------------
Kramer Meets With Students
--------------


15. (C) Kramer met with university students who had spent a
year in the U.S. in the FLEX student exchange program.
Kramer told the students that they were the future of their
country and that Washington was interested in the
development of democracy in Belarus. He also stressed the
U.S.' condemnation of violence during the elections.
Kramer maintained that the U.S. would continue to support
civil society in Belarus in close cooperation with the EU
in order to end Belarus' self-imposed isolation. He
posited that exposing Belarusian youth to other cultures
was important for the country's development and for that
reason the U.S. opposes GOB efforts to restrict exchange
programs.

Students Want Change
--------------


16. (C) The students explained that the younger generations
wanted change, but the older generations feared it because
state propaganda showed only negative aspects of the West
and the opposition gave no viable option. One student told
Kramer that democracy could not be forced on people and
that every nation needed to find its own path. Kramer
admitted that democracy was not perfect, but it was the
best form of government available. He then explained to
the students the role of free press in democracy and
lamented its absence in Belarus.

What Makes a Democratic Election?
--------------


17. (C) The students asked Kramer how the U.S. would
determine whether the upcoming presidential elections in
Belarus would be free and fair. Kramer responded that OSCE
observers would determine the election's legitimacy after
reviewing cases of fraud and abuse, equal access to voters,
freedom to campaign, access to media, vote tallying, and
observer access. Kramer noted that all indications
suggested that the Belarusian authorities are not
conducting the electoral process in a free and fair manner,
but stressed that it was not too late for the GOB to make
improvements. Students mentioned that university
officials, using threats of expulsion, force them to vote
early for Lukashenko and said a similar system existed in
the military. Kramer emphasized that the U.S. was
following the situation in Belarus very closely and that
the international community has not forgotten Belarus.


18. (C) Other topics covered during the roundtable included
the role of big business in supporting un-democratic
regimes, a perceived deliberate exaggeration of the
terrorism threat by the U.S. to use force to clamp down on
differing opinions, and the lack of professional standards
in the state-controlled Belarusian media, particularly
their attacks on the employees of the U.S. Embassy.

--------------
Comment
--------------


19. (C) Kramer's meetings once again reiterated that the
upcoming presidential elections would not likely yield any
change. The political analysts and civil society leaders
agreed that Russia, not Belarusians who are paralyzed by
fear and manipulated by the state media, is the one column
supporting Lukashenko. Only the students, although they
did not outright express it, gave hope that Belarus would
one day become a democratic country.

KROL