OPPOSITION CANDIDATE RELEASED FROM DETENTION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000233

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
KIEV FOR USAID

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT THRUOUT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE RELEASED FROM DETENTION,
CONTINUES ACTIVITIES

REF: A. MINSK 223


B. MINSK 191

Classified By: AMBASSADOR GEORGE KROL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On March 2, opposition presidential
candidate Aleksandr Kozulin was released from October Police
Station between 1700 and 1800 local time (ref A). Following
his release, Kozulin, his wife, and several members of
Kozulin's political party went to the site of opposition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign rally and gave an
impromptu press conference to nearby journalists on his next
steps. Kozulin, who had bruises on his head and a split lip,
confirmed he did not feel well. The state prosecutor filed
two counts of "hooliganism" against Kozulin, which could
result in his disqualification as a candidate, but Kozulin
vowed to continue his campaign activities. Central Election
Committee Secretary Nikolai Lozovik told P/E Chief on March 3
that the CEC will most likely allow Kozulin to remain in the
electoral race. End Summary


Only Lawyer Allowed To See Kozulin In Detention
-------------- --


2. (SBU) The police at the October Police Station not only
barred Kozulin's family and supporters from seeing him,
OSCE-ODIHR election observers and political analyst confirmed
they were also not allowed to enter the building. ODIHR
long-term observers told Emboffs on March 2 they made several
unsuccessful attempts to enter the October, Central, and
Lenin Police Stations, where 50-60 Kozulin activists and
journalists were detained. At around 1600, ODIHR observers
confirmed that OSCE Ambassador to Minsk Ake Peterson (not
affiliated with the ODIHR mission) was also denied entry to
the October Police Station. Only one of Kozulin's lawyers,
Dmitry Goryachko, was allowed to enter the police station.
Goryachko discussed with police investigators the possible
criminal charges against Kozulin, and then was able to see
the candidate.


Prior To Release, Kozulin Campaign Team Gives Press
Conference
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) At 1545, Kozulin's press spokeswoman Nina
Shidlovskaya told Emboffs that she earlier spoke with Kozulin
by phone and he claimed he did not need medical attention.
Kozulin did indicate that he felt pain in the kidney area
(where he was presumably kicked). Shidlovskaya told the
press that an ambulance was called for Kozulin, but the
ambulance crew was denied entry to the police station. The
doctor on call at the police station reportedly examined
Kozulin and concluded that he was in satisfactory condition.



4. (SBU) At 1600 local time, campaign manager Myacheslav
Grib and Kozulin's wife Irina gave a press conference for
journalists and international observers at Kozulin's campaign
headquarters. Irina confirmed she spoke with her husband
twice while he was in detention and noted that she could tell
he was in pain. Clearly despondent, Irina said she was
comforted by Kozulin's optimism and determination to keep up
the struggle against an unjust system. Grib made a public
appeal to State Prosecutor Peter Miklashevich to open a
criminal case against Special Riot Police head Colonel Dmitry
Pavlichenko and those who physically assaulted Kozulin, his
supporters, and journalists at the Palace of the Railway
Workers.


5. (C) Following the press conference, Kozulin's aid Oleg
Volchek told P/E Chief that on February 27 Kozulin personally
delivered formal written complaints to State Prosecutor
Miklashevich regarding the BKGB's illegal surveillance of
Kozulin and the February 17 altercation between Kozulin and
Belarusian security forces at the National Press Center (ref
B). Volchek claimed that during the meeting Kozulin warned
Miklashevich to take action on these complaints or he would
organize public demonstrations to denounce Belarusian
security forces as death squads. Miklashevich reportedly
assured Kozulin he would "take care" of the delivered
complaints. (Comment: Perhaps the March 2 beating of Kozulin
is what the State Prosecutor had in mind when he said he
would address Kozulin's grievances.)

Kozulin Released From Detention, Criminal Case Initiated
-------------- --------------


6. (U) Kozulin was released from the October Police Station
at 1740 local time. Kozulin's press secretary told the press
Kozulin was in bad physical condition, including bruises to
his head and face. Kozulin's lawyer Goryachko confirmed the
candidate was charged with two counts of "hooliganism": one
for the February 17 incident at the National Press Center and
one for his refusal to leave the premises of the Palace of
the Railroad Workers on March 2.


Detained Campaign Supporters and Journalists Released
-------------- --------------

7. (SBU) Kozulin aid Oleg Volchek reported to Post that all
of the 50-60 campaign activists and journalist who were
standing outside October Police Station and in Freedom Square
on March 2 were released the same day. Kozulin campaign team
members reported that up to 40 activists and journalists were
detained at Freedom Square and 12-20 people were detained
outside the October Police Station. Press reports indicate a
number of journalists were assaulted at the Palace of the
Railway Workers and outside the October Police Station. A
journalist from Reuters and another from Komsomolskaya Pravda
(KP) were hospitalized. The Reuters journalist was released
from the hospital on March 2, and the KP journalist remains
in the hospital with a concussion. KP reported that the
spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior reportedly visited
the KP journalist to apologize for the incident and to
inquire into the possibility that the journalist's injuries
resulted from falling in the snow.


Kozulin Shows Up At Milinkevich Rally, Gives Separate Press
Conference
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Following his release, Kozulin went to the site of
10 Plus opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign
rally (see septel). Kozulin's campaign manager Grib said
Kozulin did not participate in Milinkevich's rally, but "was
in the area and decided to observe the event." Press reports
indicate that approximately 10 minutes after Milinkevich's
rally ended, Kozulin gave an impromptu press conference to
journalists who were covering the rally. Kozulin confirmed
that he was in pain, particularly his head, and that he faced
two counts of hooliganism.


9. (C) Kozulin noted that it was likely the Central Election
Committee would disqualify him as a candidate because of
these charges, but he vowed to continue his campaign to seek
admittance to the Third All Belarus Assembly as the "people's
delegate." Kozulin indicated he would again seek
registration to participate as a delegate in the All Belarus
Assembly. (Note: Kozulin's campaign advisors told P/E Chief
they have advised their candidate to avoid doing something so
"senseless" and dangerous, but they recognized Kozulin will
in the end do what he wants to do.)


Campaign Team Files Complaints For March 2 Incidents
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Kozulin's aid Volchek talked to P/E Chief while
Volchek waited for his appointment at the October District
Prosecutor's Office. Volchek planned to submit formal
complaints for the March 2 beatings, arrests, and the use of
firearms in an attempt to detain Kozulin supporters.


Kozulin Likely To Remain A Candidate, Pre-Recorded Remarks
Edited
-------------- --------------


11. (C) On March 3, Central Election Committee Nikolai
Lozovik told P/E Chief he did not believe the criminal
charges against Kozulin would be enough to disqualify him as
a candidate. The CEC official noted that until Kozulin was
found guilty of hooliganism and sentenced in a court of law,
which could take up to several weeks, the CEC did not have a
legal basis to remove Kozulin's name from the ballot.
Lozovik added that the CEC is a "liberal institution" that is
not interested in disqualifying candidates.


12. (U) Despite speculation by Kozulin's campaign team,

Belarusian State Television (BT) broadcast the candidate's
pre-recorded remarks at 1800 local time, suggesting the CEC
(for now) will allow Kozulin to contest the elections.
However, Kozulin's campaign manager Grib confirmed BT edited
the candidate's remarks, specifically Kozulin's claim that
Lukashenko's leadership qualities originate from when he
worked as a prison guard and that the President violated
nepotism laws by placing his two sons in formal or informal
positions of authority.


Comment
--------------


13. (C) Kozulin seems committed to his strategy of
"unconventional" campaigning, despite the brutal assault and
detention. The Kozulin campaign strategy is fundamentally
based on smearing President Lukashenko (and his family) and
provoking clashes with Belarusian security forces. Given
that Kozulin's campaign manager recently admitted to P/E
Chief that the extent of Kozulin's regular campaign
activities have mainly involved preparing for his two TV
broadcasts on February 17 and March 2, headline-grabbing
public statements and actions may be the only card Kozulin
can play. Moreover, we cannot exclude the possibility
Kozulin may be seeking disqualification from the electoral
race, or at least to be beaten up and jailed, in an effort to
become the country's next political martyr and hero. If the
position of the CEC is any indicator, Lukashenko, perhaps
recognizing Kozulin's plan, has decided to keep Kozulin in
the race, for now.


14. (C) The impact of this strategy on voters remains
unclear. While many observers and analysts believe Kozulin's
approach is more in the style of Lukashenko and therefore
more effective with typical Belarusian voters, others believe
Kozulin is simply a clown and falls far short of Lukashenko's
ability to develop strong relations with voters all over the
country (see septel). On the other hand, the GOB has clearly
demonstrated it will respond to Kozulin's provocative tactics
in kind. During his March 2 remarks at the All Belarus
Assembly, Lukashenko, without mentioning names, noted the
Kozulin incident, saying "They (Kozulin and his supporters)
were determined to break into this assembly with their marine
training. They started scuffling, beat up women, and banged
against marines who let them have it." (Note: Kozulin was a
former marine.)

KROL