BKGB CLAIMS OPPOSITION COUP ATTEMPT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: BKGB CLAIMS OPPOSITION COUP ATTEMPT

REF: A. MINSK 192

B. 05 MINSK 1163

Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Chairman of the BKGB Stepan Sukhorenko on
March 1 claimed his organization had foiled opposition plans
to detonate a bomb during a demonstration on Election Day,
resulting in a bloody coup that would ¶lyze8 Belarus.
Sukhorenko accused the unregistered election monitoring NGO
Partnership, an &illegal8 organization controlled and
funded by the U.S. NGO National Democratic Institute (NDI),
of planning to spread false exit polling results on Election
Day to provoke a demonstration. Sukhorenko showed
&evidence8 seized from an apartment owned by one of the
arrested Partnership leaders such as falsified exit polls,
coded information, U.S. currency, mobile phones, and a gas
gun. Sukhorenko said little about the actual plans for a
bomb, but claimed that if the opposition continued with its
plan, the BKGB would arrest the masterminds and executioners.
End Summary.

The Opposition,s Plan
--------------


2. (U) In a March 1 meeting with BKGB department heads,
Deputy General Prosecutor Nikolai Kupriyanov, and state media
correspondents, Chairman of the BKGB Stepan Sukhorenko
accused the opposition of planning to bomb a crowd of its own
demonstrators after the March 19 presidential elections in an
attempt to trigger a government coup. According to
Sukhorenko, the opposition intends to use false exit polling
results to contest official election results, entice several
thousand opposition supporters to a square in downtown Minsk,
bomb the supporters, and use this violence as reason to
overthrow the government. Sukhorenko predicted that the sight
of &blood and victims8 would give the protest organizers a
&free hand8 to &take the buildings of government agencies
and train stations, block railroads in order to paralyze the
state.8 The KGB chairmen accused representatives of several
Belarusian NGOs and militants from Georgia, Ukraine, and
former Yugoslavia of being the masterminds and executioners
of the plan.

Partnership Involved
--------------


3. (C) Sukhorenko accused arrested leaders of the independent
election monitoring NGO Partnership (ref A) of being involved
in the plot, claiming that their role was to accuse
authorities of rigging the vote. The BKGB chairman called
Partnership a secretive underground organization created,
controlled, and financed by the U.S. NGO National Democratic
Institute (NDI). Sukhorenko named David Hamilton, head of
NDI,s Belarus program but based in Kiev, as being directly
involved in this plot. Sukhorenko showed video footage of
Partnership activist Timofei Dranchuk,s interrogation in
which he spoke about foreign funding of short- and long-term
observers. He also showed &evidence8 seized from the
apartment of one of the arrested Partnership leaders, such as
coded information, 100 mobile phones with SIM cards of
Lithuanian GSM operators, thousands of U.S. dollars, a gas
gun, and falsified reports of exit polls dated March 19 that
stated &results8 from 107 polling stations and gave
opposition candidate Milinkevich 53.7 percent, Lukashenko
41.3, Kozulin 3.8 percent, and Gaidukevich 1.2 percent of the
vote.


4. (C) Comment: Post understands the cell phones were
actually bought by the U.S. NGO International Republican
Institute (IRI) in 2004, smuggled into Belarus, and given to
the independent polling service IISEPS for exit polling
during the parliamentary elections. After the 2004
elections, IISEPS director Oleg Manaev gave the phones to a
businessman friend, who has no connection to politics, to
store. On February 21, the day the leaders of Partnership
were arrested, the BKGB raided Manaev,s friend,s business
and seized all the phones. The seizure was a USD 10,000
dollar loss for IISEPS. End comment.

The Purported Bomb
--------------


5. (U) Sukhorenko did not give details about the planned
bombing during a demonstration and predicted the opposition
leadership would not go through with the plan after the BKGB
had made it public. However, the BKGB would continue to
investigate and should the opposition continue with their
plan, the BKGB would quickly to find the explosives and
arrest all those involved.

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Foreign Diplomats &Involved8
--------------


6. (U) Sukhorenko further blamed foreign embassies for
&assisting8 the opposition and &actively8 participating
in changing the government leadership. He accused foreign
governments of transferring thousands of dollars to small
political parties via embassies in an attempt to destabilize
Belarus. The BKGB chairman called these alleged acts
violations of the Vienna Convention on noninterference in the
internal affairs of a sovereign country.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Sukhorenko,s statements came one day before
Milinkevich,s planned election rally in Freedom Square,
which the authorities have already called an illegal
gathering that will be disbanded (septel). The BKGB has
accused the opposition of planning bombings in the past,
including two small explosions over the past year in Vitebsk
(ref B),but no activists have been arrested. Sukhorenko,s
theory of a coup attempt is the latest of regime efforts to
provide a pretext to increase harassment of the opposition
and prevent demonstrations, further frighten Belarusians, and
discredit the opposition and the Western countries who
support democracy. It is also a clear sign the regime will
ratchet up its effort to ensure the elections will be
conducted under complete regime control.
Krol