Minsk Election Weekly X (February 18 - February 24)

UNCLAS MINSK 000200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly X (February 18 - February 24)


1. This is the tenth in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.


--------------
Candidates Get Air Time
--------------


2. As per the law, state television and radio scheduled airtime
for all four candidates, with time slots determined by lot.
Each was given the right to broadcast two pre-recorded 30-
minute messages on Belarusian Television during prime time, and
two 30-minute messages on state radio during morning and
evening hours. Post believes these time slots were distributed
fairly, giving no preference to any candidate. [Comment:
However, Lukashenko still gets the lion's share of coverage on
state media news.] As he did in 2001, Lukashenko forfeited his
time slots without explanation. Each candidate has now aired
one program, and state media did not interfere in any way.


Gaidukevich, a Mini-Luka
--------------


3. Gaidukevich gave the first televised presentation on
February 21. Mimicking Lukashenko, Gaidukevich accused the
opposition (presumably excluding himself) for being, "political
forces fed and raised by the West, which are striving for power
and have only one goal in sight, ruining the Belarus-Russia
union." Gaidukevich differed from the current regime on
economic matters, calling for privatization, accusing the
Lukashenko government of treating private businesses with
suspicion, and stressing Belarus should not follow the Chilean
or Chinese models of market dictatorship.


Milinkevich, an End to Fear
--------------


4. Milinkevich and Kozulin both broadcast their first pre-
recorded programs on February 22. Milinkevich promised an end
to fear if he wins, and to give Belarusians greater freedoms
and dignity. He denied any desire to stage a revolution, but
noted that if elections were not free and fair, voters would
protest to "defend their vote." Milinkevich stated that the
current regime fears the future and is losing faith in itself,
which explains why Lukashenko calls for the police to crackdown
on activists. He said, "The regime just does not know from
whom it should expect nasty tricks. This is a normal condition
for giant idols with feet of clay. When people start breathing
the air of freedom, hearing words of truth and believing in
justice, even the phony propaganda machine becomes powerless."
Milinkevich also challenged Lukashenko to a televised debate.


Kozulin on the Attack
--------------


5. Kozulin's speech was much spicier. He said the 2004
referendum on removing presidential term limits was
unconstitutional, therefore Lukashenko has neither the legal
nor moral right to be a candidate. Kozulin held up February
18th's Sovietskaya Belarussia, whose front page is dominated by
a large photo of Lukashenko meeting the head of the Central
Election Commission, under the caption "We are to Choose!"
Kozulin, commenting that, "This means that they will choose,
not you citizens," ripped up the paper and threw it. He also
complained that the paper claimed 76% of Belarusians would vote
for Lukashenko.


6. Kozulin then went on the attack, complaining that Lukashenko
plays hockey during work hours and that he and his regime are
entirely corrupt. Kozulin denied BT reports that he is
divorced, and countered that Lukashenko's wife has not been
seen with her husband in twelve years, and that Lukashenko has
a son out of wedlock with his mistress, the daughter of the
Minister of Health. Kozulin then discussed Lukashenko's and
Sheyman's (head of Lukashenko's campaign) roles in the 1999 and
2000 disappearances of opposition figures. Kozulin also
accused Lukashenko of creating a climate of fear within the
bureaucracy and the opposition of producing nothing but defeat.
He claimed the regime exaggerates economic successes, does
nothing to halt demographic losses, and that Lukashenko's
"strength is based on lies, fear, threats and bayonets."


--------------
Milinkevich Starts Campaigning
--------------


7. On February 18, the day after campaigning formally began,
Milinkevich traveled to Bobruisk, where he spoke to 400 people
in the city's central square. Authorities reportedly insisted
he needed a permit to speak, but backed down after
Milinkevich's team explained their rights under the Electoral
Code. After Bobruisk, Milinkevich traveled to Mogilev. Over
the next few days he also visited Svetlogorsk, Gomel, Zhlobin,
Mozyr, Kalinkovichi, and Rechitsa, most of the major population
centers in southeastern Belarus.


--------------
Repression
--------------


8. On February 17, police stopped and detained for three hours
a vehicle carrying eight Milinkevich supporters on their way to
Minsk for the candidate registration ceremony.


9. On February 17, Kozulin attempted to hold a press conference
at the National Press Center. However, plainclothes police
held the door shut to prevent him from speaking to waiting
reporters. In the ensuing scuffle, Kozulin aide Oleg Volchek
was hit in the face and sprayed with tear gas. State media has
since several times broadcast footage of Kozulin losing his
temper as he tried to pull the door open.


10. On February 20, a Gomel judge fined a local city councilman
BYR 290,000 [USD 135] for illegal campaigning because he had
11,000 leaflets and stickers satirizing state television.


11. On February 22, police in Mogilev pulled over Vladimir
Shantsev, head of Milinkevich's campaign in the region, and
seized 26,000 leaflets and 400 copies of the independent
newspaper Tovarisch. The same day police in Rogachev pulled
over another Milinkevich activist and confiscated 3,985 copies
of Tovarisch and 600 copies of Narodnaya Volya. Milinkevich
deputy campaign manager Vintsuk Vyachorka told Poloff that
since both newspapers are legally registered and campaigning
has officially begun, police have no legal basis for suchQizures.


12. On February 22, police in Gomel raided an apartment where
30 Kozulin supporters were meeting. Many of the group were
taken to the police station and detained for several hours
before being released. Police reportedly disrupted similar pro-
Kozulin meetings in Grodno and Brest on February 19 and 20.


13. Former Malady Front leader Pavel Severinets, serving two-
years in a labor camp for organizing a demonstration, was
denied previously scheduled leave to visit his father for three
days until after the election is over.


--------------
Pro-Luka Polling Only
--------------


14. Under a 2005 regulation, all opinion polling must be
registered with the National Academy of Sciences. On February
21, the NAS authorized ten Belarusian and Russian polling
services to conduct election-related polling. This list
includes the Presidential Administration's polling service,
sociological agencies of the Gomel and Grodno regional
governments, and the pro-Lukashenko Ekoom polling organization.
Independent polling services IISEPS and NOVAK were not on this
list.


--------------
Milinkevich to Moscow
--------------


15. Milinkevich and his campaign team traveled to Moscow
February 16 to present his campaign platform. According to
Jaroslav Romanchuk, author of much of the platform, Milinkevich
presented the platform to 84 Russian and international
journalists, the largest turnout on Belarus Romanchuk had ever
seen. Romanchuk claimed this platform was written up in many
Russian newspapers. While in Moscow Milinkevich also met with
Russian human rights groups and the Union of Right Forces.


--------------
Military Supports Lukashenko
--------------


16. On February 21, the Belarusian Union of Military Officers
(BUMO) announced its support for Lukashenko, based on
"Aleksandr Lukashenko's contribution to the development of
world civilization and of Belarus." BUMO stressed admiration
for Lukashenko involving himself in the most mundane aspects of
governance, and explained that military pay and pensions are
high because of Lukashenko. Meanwhile Armed Forces bands are
giving free concerts at military bases and cities across the
country under the slogan "Za Belarus," (For Belarus)
Lukashenko's campaign slogan.


--------------
Russian MFA Blasts ODIHR
--------------


17. On February 22, Russian MFA spokesman Mikhail Kamynin told
ITAR-TASS that the ODIHR election observation mission in
Belarus is operating with a lack of transparency and without
any legible rules for observation. Kamynin claimed this leads
to ODIHR's biased assessments, and he criticized the ODIHR
needs assessment team for "voicing opinions about the political
context of the forthcoming election." [Comment: this visit was
of a purely technical nature.] Kamynin further complained
that, "far-reaching conclusions that there are no conditions in
the republic [Belarus] necessary for democratic elections are
being drawn now... This approach cannot be described in any
other way than biased."


--------------
Proxies Accepted
--------------


18. On February 20, the CEC certified 30 designated proxies for
each candidate. These proxies have the right to represent the
candidate in meetings with government officials and election
commissions at all levels.


--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------


19. Publicly addressing his security services, on February 21
Lukashenko told police, "You know what pressure has been
exerted on Belarus, from open blackmail to attempts by the West
to interfere in internal affairs, and from small provocations
to threats of extremism by the opposition... Our key task is to
protect the Belarusian people from the imposition of foreign
will, lies and violence."

KROL