PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGIN THEIR CAMPAIGNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000191

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGIN THEIR CAMPAIGNS

REF: MINSK 44

Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: On February 17, the Central Election
Committee (CEC) registered President Aleksandr Lukashenko,
10 Coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, former rector of
Belarusian State University Aleksandr Kozulin, and leader of
the Libera Democratic Party Sergey Gaidukevich as officialpresidential candidates, signaling the beginning o the
second phase of the presidential elections campaigning.
Milinkevich immediately began his cmpaign with a symbolic
march to Minsk,s Victory quare followed by trips to
regional capitals. Wereas the President will use his
administrative esources to campaign as he wishes, the CEC
and Mnsk city authorities have restricted the amount of
money opposition candidates can spend, when and were
candidates can meet with voters, and how muc media access
candidates will have. Violating tese regulations can result
in a candidate,s immeiate disqualification from the
presidential race. End Summary.

The Registration Process
--------------


2. (U) Before registering canidates on February 17, the CEC
verified the contnders, signatures and reviewed their
income and roperty statements, backgrounds, and violations
o the electoral code. During the registration ceremny,
three CEC members voted against registering ilinkevich
because his wife reportedly did not tmely file a declaration
for the income she receied when she sold her car. CEC
Secretary Nikolai ozovik repeatedly urged his colleagues to

SIPDIS
overlok this &minor8 violation and accept Milinkevich asa
candidate. Decisions on other candidates, regstration were
unanimous.

Candidate Registratin Complete
--------------


3. U) During a February 17 ceremony at the Palace of he
Republic, the CEC registered President Aleksadr Lukashenko,
10 Coalition leader Aleksandr Miinkevich, former rector of
the Belarusian State niversity Aleksandr Kozulin, and leader
of the Lieral Democratic Party Sergey Gaidukevich as
offiial presidential candidates. During their brief
peeches, Milinkevich spoke about violations commited by the
GOB thus far in the electoral process,lack of democracy, and
political prisoners while ozulin openly criticized
Lukashenko, calling himan &uncontrollable dictator8 and an
&illegal8 paticipant in the upcoming election. Lukashenko
dd not react to the criticisms, but spoke aboutstaility
and preserving peace and warned foreign countries not to
interfere in the election. The President congratulated all
the candidates, but onlyshook hands with Gaidukevich, who in
his speech disagreed with Milinkevich and Kozulin,s
criticisms. (Note: Kozulin,s criticism of Lukashenko angered
CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina, who later accused Kozulin of
illegally insulting and slandering GOB officials. She warned
candidates that they would be disqualified if future speeches
contain such &slander.8)

State Support for Candidates
--------------


4. (U) The state will provide each candidate USD 30,000 from
the national budget to cover campaign costs, but a candidate
can be disqualified if he uses more than this amount or
receives other financial assistance. Candidates will be able
to publish their platforms in seven state-run newspapers and
each candidate can present a &prerecorded8 speech on two
30-minute time slots on the state-controlled radio station
First Belarusian Radio and two 30-minute time-slots on
Belarusian National TV (BT). On February 17, the CEC
allocated time slots to the candidates:

Candidate TG Radio
-------------- -------------- --------------

Luka. Feb. 21 18:30-19:00 Feb. 24 08:30-09:00
Mar. 01 18:00-18:30 Mar. 03 08:00-08:30

Mili. Feb. 22 18:00-18:30 Feb. 27 08:30-09:00
Mar. 02 18:30-19:00 Mar. 06 08:00-08:30

Koz. Feb. 22 18:30-19:00 Feb. 27 08:00-08:30
Mar. 02 18:00-18:30 Mar. 06 08:30-09:00

Gaid. Feb. 21 18:00-18:30 Feb. 24 08:00-08:30

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Mar. 01 18:30-19:00 Feb. 24 20:30-21:00

Milinkevich First Out of The Starting Block
--------------


5. (SBU) Following the registration ceremony at the Palace of
the Republic, 200 to 300 Milinkevich supporters, holding
placards designating the regions from which they came and
shouting &Milinkevich, Milinkevich, Milinkevich,8 &Live
Belarus,8 and Milinkevich,s new campaign slogan &Freedom,
Truth, and Justice,8 gathered on October Square to celebrate
his registration. (Note: Belarusian Popular Front,s (BPF)
press office initially reported 1,000 supporters were
present, but Milinkevich,s regional travel manager Ales
Yanukevich on February 21 told Poloff 500 supporters were
present.) Milinkevich spoke briefly on October Square before
leading his supporters down Minsk,s main street to Victory
Square to lay flowers at the WWII memorial. Milinkevich then
called on supporters to defend their vote and encouraged them
to take part in a March 2 demonstration at Freedom Square.


6. (C) Yanukevich stated that Milinkevich,s performance
following the registration evoked the most positive reaction
from the supporters. Few Kozulin supporters were on the
square waiting for their candidate and eventually (according
to Yanukevich) joined Milinkevich,s crowd. Lukashenko left
the Palace of the Republic through a backdoor. Yanukevich
noted that supporters from all regions of Belarus traveled to
Minsk to celebrate Milinkevich,s registration, but several
groups were stopped by police for &unfounded and baseless8
reasons, such as not stopping at pedestrian crossings or for
riding in allegedly stolen vehicles. In one case, a group
from Zhlobin was detained once they entered Minsk,s city
limits. However, the large BKGB and police presence during
Milinkevich,s march did not result in any arrests.


7. (C) Milinkevich immediately began his regional travels
following registration. According to Yanukevich, on February
18, Milinkevich spoke to 200 supporters on the street in
Bobruisk (since the local government refused to grant him a
venue) and to 500 supporters at a conference hall in Mogilev.
On February 19, he met with supporters in Zhlobin and
Svetlagorsk and 750 people attended a meeting with the
candidate in Gomel. On February 20, Milinkevich met with 350
supporters in Rechitsa before returning to Minsk. He is
currently preparing a recording of his speech that will air
on Belarus, National TV (BT) on February 22.

Kozulin,s Rocky Start
--------------


9. (U) Independent news coverage does not indicate that
Kozulin,s campaign has gained as much momentum as
Milinkevich,s. In fact, Kozulin,s election campaign has
had a rough beginning. Following his February 17
registration, Kozulin and members of his campaign team
elbowed their way into the National Press Center demanding an
impromptu press conference. Kozulin was denied access
despite showing his presidential candidate certificate.
Consequently, Kozulin began aggressively trying to force the
door open until security personnel physically tried to move
Kozulin out of the building, resulting in a grabbing and
shoving match. (Comment: A state media cameraman was in
position to film the entire incident, which later aired on
the February 19 BT episode of Center of Attention (see para
14),throwing Kozulin in a bad light.)


10. (U) After the scuffle and still denied access, Kozulin
spoke to Belarusian and foreign journalists in the lobby of
the National Press Center, telling them that if he became
president, Belarus would revert back to observing the rule of
law. Kozulin then blamed President Lukashenko, commander of
the 3214 quick response regiment Colonel Dmitry Pavlichenko,
and former Head of the Presidential Administration Viktor
Shieman for the disappearances of opposition political
figures and noted details of the investigation. Kozulin is
currently in Minsk preparing his first prerecorded speech
that will air on BT on February 22. His campaign team
continues to campaign door-to-door distributing leaflets.

Gaidukevich
--------------


11. (U) On February 21, Gaidukevich,s first 2006 campaign
speech aired on BT. He stressed that Belarus, foreign policy
should fit the goals of the country,s development and should
work for the benefit of the economy. Gaidukevich listed
steps to expand integrations within the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS),the Eurasian Economic Community,

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and the Common Economic Space to remove barriers to trade and
business. He opined that Belarusian embassies should work
harder to promote trade and economic ties with foreign
countries and called for Belarus, accession to the World
Trade Organization. Gaidukevich stated that EU expansion
eastward would draw Belarus closer economically and that
Belarus should develop political and economic dialog with the
U.S., China, India, Japan, and the Middle East.

Lukashenko Uses Concerts For Campaigning
--------------


12. (U) Earlier in February, opposition candidates filed
complaints with the CEC claiming that President Lukashenko
was using a series of free-admittance concerts titled &For
Belarus8 (Lukashenko,s slogan for the 2004 referendum
allowing him to run for a third term) as an early
electioneering tactic. The CEC dismissed this, claiming that
the concerts and its slogan could apply to all candidates.
However, during a February 20 airing of a &For Belarus8
concert, the purpose behind the extravagant concert was
obvious. Gigantic Belarusian flags with &For Belarus8 and
&For Batka8 (self-imposed nickname for Lukashenko, meaning
Father,) waved on mechanical wands. The concert hosts
would try to excite the crowd between performances, yelling
&For Belarus,8 &Choose, Choose,8 and &We are the
clean, generation8 followed by loud applause. (Note:
During the loud applause, the video footage of the crowd
showed them sitting calmly in their seats.) The cameras
periodically focused on the large BRSM (Belarusian Republican
Youth Movement, pro-Lukashenko youth group) banners on the
stage and audience members wearing BRSM t-shirts. Most of
the concert performers were very young and energetic and
would randomly shout, &You know who you should vote for.8
(Comment: These performers have greatly benefited from
Lukashenko,s decree that 75 percent of radio play lists
should be music performed by Belarusian artists. They are,
no doubt, greatly indebted to the President for their success
as pop stars.)


13. (U) On February 20, Lukashenko did not appear at the BT
television station to record his speech, which was to air on
February 21. Neither he nor his administration gave a reason
for the President,s absence. In 2001, Lukashenko also
waived one of his television spots.

Election Coverage
--------------


14. (U) The state media has increased its coverage of the
election process, but it still refrains from using the
opposition candidates, names as much as possible and
continues to smear their reputations. BT,s February 19
episode of &Center of Attention8 briefly showed all the
candidates giving their registration speech, but then
followed with an expose on what makes a great leader. During
this expose, various employment agency directors commented
that a good leader needed to be charismatic, decisive, and
energetic and opined that the opposition candidates did not
have these qualities. Other footage showed Kozulin being
denied entrance to the Palace of the Republic during a press
conference and his angry and physical response with the young
adults who would not let him in. (Comment: The altercation
seemed to be a set up given that security at the Palace of
the Republic instigated the confrontation and the state media
was already in position to cover it.) Throughout the show,
opposition candidates were referred to as the &unemployed.8
(Note: BT will air on February 26 a &documentary8 called
The Controllable House, which investigates &U.S.-financed8
revolutions and their consequences.)

Inequalities in Campaigning
--------------


15. (U) Although the GOB is providing assistance to all
candidates, it is miserly compared to Lukashenko,s
administrative resources and unlimited access to the state
media, which he uses to call opposition candidates thugs and
Western stooges. Opposition candidates can only count on
having media access allotted by CEC regulations. Belarusian
laws prohibit criticizing the President and GOB, and since
the contenders, presentations are to be prerecorded, the
authorities will have cart blanche to edit as they chose.
The small independent press would have been the opposition
candidates, only outlet for extra publicity, but on February
8, CEC Chair Yermoshina warned candidates that campaigning in
the independent press was a form of illegal financial support
and a violation of electoral law.


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16. (U) On February 11, the Minsk City Executive Committee
listed 30 places, mostly parks away from the city center,
where presidential candidates would be allowed to hold
meetings and 39 places where candidates were allowed to post
and distribute their campaign materials. The Committee
stated that police were instructed to prevent candidates from
holding rallies and distributing campaign materials in
non-specified areas. On February 15, the Minsk City
Executive Committee,s ideology department reminded
candidates that they must get permission from the city
government before meeting with voters. However, since such
meetings are related to the presidential campaign, candidates
need to submit for permission only two days, rather than the
usual 15 days, before the event. The ideology department
claimed that this process was to avoid scheduling conflicts
with other candidates. Meetings held without permission will
be considered illegal rallies. These restrictions will not
apply to Lukashenko.

Comment
--------------


17. (C) The candidates, registration and Milinkevich,s
energetic start to his campaign raises some hope that change
may be possible. The number of people Milinkevich meets with
in the regions has greatly increased since he was first
nominated as the 10 candidate in October. However, like the
signature collecting before it (reftel),the campaigning
portion of the election process is susceptible to
inequalities and manipulations in favor of Lukashenko. We
expect the GOB to use any means possible to restrict the
opposition candidates from meeting with the electorate while
the President uses his free reign over the media and
government to further propagate himself as &Batka8 of
Belarus.
Krol