Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK154
2006-02-14 08:23:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
Minsk Election Weekly VIII (February 3-February 10)
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UNCLAS MINSK 000154
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VIII (February 3-February 10)
UNCLAS MINSK 000154
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VIII (February 3-February 10)
1. This is the eighth in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.
--------------
Signatures and Registration
--------------
2. Grodno Commissions Reject Milinkevich's Signatures
On February 6, the Grodno district election commissions
invalidated signatures collected in support of 10+ Coalition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich from 10 of its 17 districts.
[Note: According to the regulations, if the commissions find
that 15 percent of signatures from a city or district are
invalid, then all the signatures from that city or district are
discarded.] Milinkevich's campaign team views the decision to
invalidate signatures from those regions as an attempt to
discredit Milinkevich and is prepared to produce photocopies of
signature lists if the invalidation results in Milinkevich's
exclusion from the presidential race.
3. Candidates To Be Announced Around President's Day Weekend
On February 8, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced
plans to hold a special meeting on either February 17 or 21 at
the Palace of the Republic to distribute the presidential
candidates' registration certificates. CEC head Yermoshina
said presidential incumbent Lukashenko will attend the meeting
to accept his registration.
--------------
The Candidates
--------------
4. Kozulin and Milinkevich Put Unification Talks on Hold
On February 8, Milinkevich rescinded his offer to discuss
uniting forces with opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin. On
February 4, Milinkevich sent Kozulin a letter suggesting that
the weaker candidate withdraw from the race before the
presidential candidates were announced and unite forces with
the stronger candidate. Milinkevich proposed numerous criteria
to determine who was the stronger candidate, including current
popularity ratings, level of recognition by the international
community, the number of nomination signatures gathered and the
existence of campaign teams in the regions. [Note: These
criteria clearly favor Milinkevich to be named as the stronger
candidate.] In a statement on February 6, Kozulin rejected the
proposal, calling it an ultimatum, and suggested uniting forces
in the event one of the opposition candidates is denied access
to the ballot.
5. Milinkevich in Moscow for Russian-Belarusian Conference
On February 6, Milinkevich and several members of his campaign
team traveled to Moscow to participate in a conference on
Russian-Belarusian relations. In his interviews with Ekho
Moskvy and Radio Free Europe/Radio Europe, Milinkevich stressed
he is a pro-Belarusian politician, not a pro-Western or pro-
Polish one, and that he is always open to dialogue with Moscow.
He told reporters, "An anti-Russian politician cannot win any
elections in Belarus, that is why Moscow has no grounds to be
afraid of the pro-democratic forces." Kozulin also attended
the conference, but without a team of advisors.
6. Voitovich Will Not Back Kozulin
On February 6, former presidential hopeful Aleksandr Voitovich
refused Kozulin's offer to join forces. Instead, Voitovich
will focus his efforts on a campaign seeking Lukashenko's
withdrawal from the race. Voitovich told Belapan, "I express
my solidarity with and support all steps to explain why
Lukashenko's decision to run for reelection is illegitimate and
to inform the public about the situation in the country."
--------------
The Campaign
--------------
7. Candidates Allowed to Campaign on State Media Only
On February 8, the central election commission (CEC) laid out
the rules for campaigning on state media. Each candidate will
receive two 30-minute segments on state media and coverage of
their platforms in seven state newspapers. Candidates can
broadcast free of charge two pre-recorded addresses on state
First National Television Channel between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. and
two messages on First National Radio Channel between 8 a.m. and
9 a.m. The CEC will review the content of all speeches before
their broadcast. A lottery will determine which time slots
each candidate receives. In addition, candidates can publish a
platform of 10,000 characters or less in seven nationwide state
newspapers. CEC head Lidiya Yermoshina warned the non-state
press that giving any presidential candidate an opportunity to
publish articles in their newspapers will be considered illegal
financial support.
8. Subsidized Heat and Water for All During Election Years
On February 8, in an apparent election ploy the Council of
Ministers announced that the government will subsidize heat and
hot water bills for the month of January. Utility consumption
rose significantly in January due to a prolonged cold snap,
with temperatures dipping to -30C. Consumers, however, are
only required to pay utility companies for the same amount of
heat and hot water they consumed in December. The Council of
Minister ordered the local governments to provide funds for the
utility companies to compensate for the loss. The money will
come out of the national budgetary fund for the support of the
country's regions, districts, and cities. Econoff noted that
announcements stating that the GOB will subsidize tenets'
January heating bills were displayed in his apartment building.
--------------
Observation Missions
--------------
9. CIS Releases First Election Observations
After conducting a weeklong trip around the country monitoring
the work of election commissions, the CIS observation team
released its first assessment of the progress of the election
in Belarus on February 7. The statement noted that the
election process has been conducted "in a quiet atmosphere, and
in line with current law." The CIS did admit, however, that
political parties, and especially parties who are not pro-
government, were underrepresented in the commissions. Without
citing specific people or groups, the CIS also reported several
violations during signature collection phase. CIS observers
started their second tour of Belarus on February 7.
10. OSCE/ODIHR Begins Observation Mission in Minsk
On February 6, core team of election observation experts from
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
(ODIHR) arrived in Minsk. The OSCE decided to launch an
observation mission after an OSCE Needs Assessment Mission
determined that the "election preparations are taking place
against a background of increased constraints on civil society,
independent media, and opposition political parties." ODIHR
plan to field 40 long-term observers and 400 short-term
observers. On February 9, Ministry of Foreign Affairs official
Valery Romashko urged ODIHR to monitor the elections in strict
accordance with Belarusian regulations. This warning followed
an earlier MFA statement encouraging objective and unbiased
conclusions from the ODIHR mission.
11. National Assembly Invites Its Counterparts to Observe
On February 6, the National Assembly announced that it invited
representatives from several parliamentary bodies to observe
the presidential elections, including the Parliamentary
Assemblies from the Belarusian-Russian Union State and the
OSCE, and the Inter-Parliamentary Assemblies from the CIS and
the Eurasian Economic Community.
--------------
Party Activists
--------------
12. Officer Disciplined for Illegally Seizing Activist's
Equipment
On February 9, a rank and file police officer Dmitry Rogolevich
received disciplinary action for illegally seizing equipment
from the home of a Belarusian Popular Front member Telman
Maslyukov in December 2005. Out of the six officers who
participated in the seizure of Maslyukov's photocopier,
computer discs, books, pamphlets and newspapers, only
Rogolevich was punished for violating the Criminal Procedure
Code.
13. "Lukamol" Leader Works on Behalf of Opposition Presidential
Candidate
On February 4, Venedikt Klyauzze, the secretary of a university
chapter of the Belarusian Republican Youth Union (BRSM),gave
an interview with daily newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" about
the consequences he faces for collecting nomination signatures
in support of 10+ Coalition candidate Milinkevich. [Note: BRSM
is a pro-Lukashenko, state-sponsored youth group, claiming to
represent more than 300,000 members nationwide.] Klyauzze
fears that both BRSM and the Belarus Agrarian and Technical
University will expel him. He has already received failing
marks on his exams after his support of Milinkevich was made
public. In his defense, Klyauzze said he was a conscientious
BRSM member who has always fulfilled his obligations and that
"what he does in his free time is his own business."
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
14. In an interview with weekly newspaper "Obozrevatel" on
February 3, presidential hopeful Sergei Gaidukevich spoke about
Lukashenko's certain victory in the elections and how he
expects to finish in the race:
"I won't become president in 2006....Sergei Vasilyevich
Gaidukevich will come in second [in the election] whether you
like it or not."
PHLIPOT
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VIII (February 3-February 10)
1. This is the eighth in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.
--------------
Signatures and Registration
--------------
2. Grodno Commissions Reject Milinkevich's Signatures
On February 6, the Grodno district election commissions
invalidated signatures collected in support of 10+ Coalition
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich from 10 of its 17 districts.
[Note: According to the regulations, if the commissions find
that 15 percent of signatures from a city or district are
invalid, then all the signatures from that city or district are
discarded.] Milinkevich's campaign team views the decision to
invalidate signatures from those regions as an attempt to
discredit Milinkevich and is prepared to produce photocopies of
signature lists if the invalidation results in Milinkevich's
exclusion from the presidential race.
3. Candidates To Be Announced Around President's Day Weekend
On February 8, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced
plans to hold a special meeting on either February 17 or 21 at
the Palace of the Republic to distribute the presidential
candidates' registration certificates. CEC head Yermoshina
said presidential incumbent Lukashenko will attend the meeting
to accept his registration.
--------------
The Candidates
--------------
4. Kozulin and Milinkevich Put Unification Talks on Hold
On February 8, Milinkevich rescinded his offer to discuss
uniting forces with opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin. On
February 4, Milinkevich sent Kozulin a letter suggesting that
the weaker candidate withdraw from the race before the
presidential candidates were announced and unite forces with
the stronger candidate. Milinkevich proposed numerous criteria
to determine who was the stronger candidate, including current
popularity ratings, level of recognition by the international
community, the number of nomination signatures gathered and the
existence of campaign teams in the regions. [Note: These
criteria clearly favor Milinkevich to be named as the stronger
candidate.] In a statement on February 6, Kozulin rejected the
proposal, calling it an ultimatum, and suggested uniting forces
in the event one of the opposition candidates is denied access
to the ballot.
5. Milinkevich in Moscow for Russian-Belarusian Conference
On February 6, Milinkevich and several members of his campaign
team traveled to Moscow to participate in a conference on
Russian-Belarusian relations. In his interviews with Ekho
Moskvy and Radio Free Europe/Radio Europe, Milinkevich stressed
he is a pro-Belarusian politician, not a pro-Western or pro-
Polish one, and that he is always open to dialogue with Moscow.
He told reporters, "An anti-Russian politician cannot win any
elections in Belarus, that is why Moscow has no grounds to be
afraid of the pro-democratic forces." Kozulin also attended
the conference, but without a team of advisors.
6. Voitovich Will Not Back Kozulin
On February 6, former presidential hopeful Aleksandr Voitovich
refused Kozulin's offer to join forces. Instead, Voitovich
will focus his efforts on a campaign seeking Lukashenko's
withdrawal from the race. Voitovich told Belapan, "I express
my solidarity with and support all steps to explain why
Lukashenko's decision to run for reelection is illegitimate and
to inform the public about the situation in the country."
--------------
The Campaign
--------------
7. Candidates Allowed to Campaign on State Media Only
On February 8, the central election commission (CEC) laid out
the rules for campaigning on state media. Each candidate will
receive two 30-minute segments on state media and coverage of
their platforms in seven state newspapers. Candidates can
broadcast free of charge two pre-recorded addresses on state
First National Television Channel between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. and
two messages on First National Radio Channel between 8 a.m. and
9 a.m. The CEC will review the content of all speeches before
their broadcast. A lottery will determine which time slots
each candidate receives. In addition, candidates can publish a
platform of 10,000 characters or less in seven nationwide state
newspapers. CEC head Lidiya Yermoshina warned the non-state
press that giving any presidential candidate an opportunity to
publish articles in their newspapers will be considered illegal
financial support.
8. Subsidized Heat and Water for All During Election Years
On February 8, in an apparent election ploy the Council of
Ministers announced that the government will subsidize heat and
hot water bills for the month of January. Utility consumption
rose significantly in January due to a prolonged cold snap,
with temperatures dipping to -30C. Consumers, however, are
only required to pay utility companies for the same amount of
heat and hot water they consumed in December. The Council of
Minister ordered the local governments to provide funds for the
utility companies to compensate for the loss. The money will
come out of the national budgetary fund for the support of the
country's regions, districts, and cities. Econoff noted that
announcements stating that the GOB will subsidize tenets'
January heating bills were displayed in his apartment building.
--------------
Observation Missions
--------------
9. CIS Releases First Election Observations
After conducting a weeklong trip around the country monitoring
the work of election commissions, the CIS observation team
released its first assessment of the progress of the election
in Belarus on February 7. The statement noted that the
election process has been conducted "in a quiet atmosphere, and
in line with current law." The CIS did admit, however, that
political parties, and especially parties who are not pro-
government, were underrepresented in the commissions. Without
citing specific people or groups, the CIS also reported several
violations during signature collection phase. CIS observers
started their second tour of Belarus on February 7.
10. OSCE/ODIHR Begins Observation Mission in Minsk
On February 6, core team of election observation experts from
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
(ODIHR) arrived in Minsk. The OSCE decided to launch an
observation mission after an OSCE Needs Assessment Mission
determined that the "election preparations are taking place
against a background of increased constraints on civil society,
independent media, and opposition political parties." ODIHR
plan to field 40 long-term observers and 400 short-term
observers. On February 9, Ministry of Foreign Affairs official
Valery Romashko urged ODIHR to monitor the elections in strict
accordance with Belarusian regulations. This warning followed
an earlier MFA statement encouraging objective and unbiased
conclusions from the ODIHR mission.
11. National Assembly Invites Its Counterparts to Observe
On February 6, the National Assembly announced that it invited
representatives from several parliamentary bodies to observe
the presidential elections, including the Parliamentary
Assemblies from the Belarusian-Russian Union State and the
OSCE, and the Inter-Parliamentary Assemblies from the CIS and
the Eurasian Economic Community.
--------------
Party Activists
--------------
12. Officer Disciplined for Illegally Seizing Activist's
Equipment
On February 9, a rank and file police officer Dmitry Rogolevich
received disciplinary action for illegally seizing equipment
from the home of a Belarusian Popular Front member Telman
Maslyukov in December 2005. Out of the six officers who
participated in the seizure of Maslyukov's photocopier,
computer discs, books, pamphlets and newspapers, only
Rogolevich was punished for violating the Criminal Procedure
Code.
13. "Lukamol" Leader Works on Behalf of Opposition Presidential
Candidate
On February 4, Venedikt Klyauzze, the secretary of a university
chapter of the Belarusian Republican Youth Union (BRSM),gave
an interview with daily newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" about
the consequences he faces for collecting nomination signatures
in support of 10+ Coalition candidate Milinkevich. [Note: BRSM
is a pro-Lukashenko, state-sponsored youth group, claiming to
represent more than 300,000 members nationwide.] Klyauzze
fears that both BRSM and the Belarus Agrarian and Technical
University will expel him. He has already received failing
marks on his exams after his support of Milinkevich was made
public. In his defense, Klyauzze said he was a conscientious
BRSM member who has always fulfilled his obligations and that
"what he does in his free time is his own business."
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
14. In an interview with weekly newspaper "Obozrevatel" on
February 3, presidential hopeful Sergei Gaidukevich spoke about
Lukashenko's certain victory in the elections and how he
expects to finish in the race:
"I won't become president in 2006....Sergei Vasilyevich
Gaidukevich will come in second [in the election] whether you
like it or not."
PHLIPOT