OPPOSITION DENIED PARTICIPATION IN ELECTION

UNCLAS MINSK 000138

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DENIED PARTICIPATION IN ELECTION
PRECINCT COMMISIONS



1. (U) Summary: On December 30, the Central Election
Committee announced the results of the territorial (regional
and municipal) commission nomination process. Out of the
2,124 members, only one was a representative of the
opposition, despite the dozens of nominations opposition
parties submitted. On February 2, the results of the
precinct commission nomination process showed that out of the
74,104 precinct members, only two were representatives of
opposition parties. Most of the commission representatives
are state employees, putting into question their independence
from the authorities. The outraged opposition considered the
results an indication of Lukashenko,s insincerity in
conducting free and fair elections. End Summary.

Territorial Commissions Formed
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2. (U) The Central Election Committee (CEC) on December 30
announced that 165 territorial (regional and municipal)
election commissions were formed with 2,124 members,
averaging 13 people per commission. Political parties
represented 2.6 percent of territorial commission members,
most of which were pro-Lukashenko parties such as the
Communist Party of Belarus, the Liberal Democratic Party, the
Social Sports Party, the Republican Party of Labor and
Justice, and the Agrarian Party. (Comment: The last three
parties seem to only exist during election season.) Twenty
percent of the territorial commissions represented the
pro-Lukashenko &NGOs8 Belarusian National Youth Union, the
Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus (FTUB),and the
Belarusian Women,s Union. Thirty percent of commission
members represented the manufacturing, transport, trade, and
construction sectors, 22.7 percent represented civil
servants, 12.1 percent represented educators, and 7.2 percent
were farm representatives. Representatives from worker
collectives made up 19.2 percent.

The Opposition Is Left Out
--------------


3. (U) Out of all the candidates nominated by opposition
political parties, only one Belarusian Popular Front (BPF)
member was included on the territorial commissions. (Note:
BPF member Ales Yanukevich told Poloff on February 7 that
this member was nominated by a working collective and not by
the BPF.) Sergei Kalyakin, leader of the Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC) and campaign manager for 10 candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich considered the results an indication
that the GOB would not conduct free and transparent
elections. Not one of the BPC,s 70 nominees was selected to
the commissions. The United Civic Party (UCP) nominated 38
members to the territorial commissions, but all were
excluded. The BPF nominated 30 members. The BPC complained
to the heads of local governments, urging them to abide by
the country,s Electoral Code. The Justice Ministry
responded by issuing a written warning to the BPC, the second
since Fall 2005, for allegedly interfering in the work of
government agencies and officials. (Note: Under Belarusian
law, a party can be liquidated after two official warnings,
but not during an election campaign.)

Precinct Commissions Also Not Favorable
--------------


4. (U) On February 2, the CEC and local authorities formed
6,586 precinct commissions with 74,104 members. The
Belarusian National Youth Union, FTUB, and the Belarusian
Women,s Union had 489 representatives on the commissions.
Twenty-six percent of the commission members represented the
manufacturing, trade, transportation and construction
sectors, 16.2 the agriculture sector, 6.6 percent the health
and social security sector, and 5.8 percent represented
government agencies. Political parties had 122
representatives on the commissions, but 109 of those were
from the pro-government Communist Party of Belarus. Ten
members represented the Agrarian Party and one was from the
National Party of Labor and Justice.


5. (SBU) Despite nominating 800 candidates, only one UCP
member was selected, as well as only one of the 300
Belarusian Social Democratic Party &Gramada8 nominees. The
Assembly of Pro-democratic NGOs nominated 1,100 people and
the BPF 206, but neither organization saw one of their

candidates selected. Ales Yanukevich, regional travel
manager for Milinkevich and BPF party member told Poloff on
February 7 that the territorial and precinct commission
results indicated that the GOB would rig the presidential
elections. Yanukevich noted that the precinct commissions
represented an essential component of the elections because
it is at that level where votes are counted. Without
opposition representation, massive fraud could occur, giving
Lukashenko his pre-determined, 75-80 percent of the vote.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The lack of opposition representation in the
commissions is yet another warning that Belarus does not
intend to conduct free and fair elections. Numerous contacts
have told Emboffs that the GOB will rely on the commissions
to discretely deliver a convincing victory for Lukashenko.
It is difficult to imagine that a significant number of
election workers will ignore their mandate to rig the
election results, considering that almost all of the
commission workers are employees of the state. Thus,
independent domestic and international observers will play a
key role in identifying the kinds and degree of violations of
international election standards, if the authorities will
allow them unhindered access.
Krol