Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1315
2006-12-29 11:15:00
SECRET
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

MINSK EAC DISCUSSES POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION IN

Tags:  ASEC CASC AMGT ENRG BO 
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VZCZCXYZ0014
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #1315 3631115
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 291115Z DEC 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5478
INFO RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV 0019
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3565
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1763
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3808
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3422
S E C R E T MINSK 001315 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR, DS/IP/EUR, DS/DSS/ITA, M, P, S/CT, CA, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2016
TAGS: ASEC CASC AMGT ENRG BO
SUBJECT: MINSK EAC DISCUSSES POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION IN
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES


Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T MINSK 001315

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR, DS/IP/EUR, DS/DSS/ITA, M, P, S/CT, CA, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2016
TAGS: ASEC CASC AMGT ENRG BO
SUBJECT: MINSK EAC DISCUSSES POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION IN
NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES


Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Charge convened post's Emergency Action Committee
December 28. In attendance were A/DCM, A/POL/ECON chief,
RSO, CONS, GSO, IMO, ITO, A/DCM, CLO, MSG DET Commander,
USAID and A/PAO.


2. (SBU) The EAC met to discuss the continuing dispute and
negotiations between Gazprom and the Government of Belarus
(GOB) over terms of a new natural gas contract and review
relevant EAP tripwires. Belarus receives 98% of its natural
gas from Russia, and natural gas is critically important to
both central electricity generation and the heating of many
public and private buildings (including Embassy residences).


3. (SBU) As negotiations approach January 1, Gazprom's
contractual deadline, rhetoric has been intense and Gazprom
has implied that it will shut off gas supplies to Belarus
effective 0900 January 1 Minsk time if an agreement is not
reached.


4. (SBU) The EAC considered a number of factors: 1) the GOB
has a reservoir of natural gas, and could also switch some
electrical generation facilities to oil; 2) it appears likely
that some gas will still be sent through Belarus, ostensibly
for customers elsewhere in Europe; and 3) public sentiment
makes it unlikely that a settlement would be delayed by more
than a few days at the most. Based on those factors, EAC
members concurred that the worst-case scenario -- a complete
cessation in gas supplies to Belarus over one week or more --
is highly unlikely. EAC members agreed that in the event
agreement is not reached before January 1, a more likely
scenario would be a temporary (less than forty-eight hours)
shut off followed by a compromise agreement between the
parties and little or no disruption in public infrastructure.


5. (SBU) The EAC does not believe that Gazprom would
complicate negotiations at this juncture by shutting off gas
supplies prior to January 1.


6. (S) Post,s EAP tripwires for authorized and ordered
departure due to sustained or long-term disruptions in energy
supplies do not compel post to take any type of draw down
measures at this time:


A. Growing potential for draw down

- Anticipated long-term disruption of utilities, gas, water,
goods and services (including means of communication) which
outstrips the embassy,s ability to ameliorate conditions for
embassy staff.


B. Authorized Departure

- Security situation or fuel shortages result in a
significant decrease in the number of available commercial
flights out of country.

- Public services (gas, electric, water, telephone, food,
public sanitation, etc.) experience severe disruptions
routinely, without expectation that normal service will
resume.

- Food and gasoline supplies become sporadic.

- Any sustained disruption of water, food, electricity,
communications, transportation, and emergency services and
other public safety organs.


C. Ordered Departure

- Comprehensive breakdown of critical infrastructure and/or
utili4ies, due to natural or man-made incident, to such an
extent that the Embassy can no longer sustain operations.


7. (SBU) Post will report further details of the
negotiations septel, and will reassess the potential for
severe disruptions in energy supplies immediately after the
New Year.
Moore