Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1273
2006-12-13 09:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION UNITED ON KOZULIN, DIVIDED ON

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL BO 
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VZCZCXRO3800
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #1273/01 3470904
ZNY CCCCC XZH
P 130904Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5430
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1375
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001273 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITED ON KOZULIN, DIVIDED ON
BOYCOTTING ELECTIONS

REF: A. MINSK 1222


B. VILNIUS 879

C. MINSK 1252

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001273

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITED ON KOZULIN, DIVIDED ON
BOYCOTTING ELECTIONS

REF: A. MINSK 1222


B. VILNIUS 879

C. MINSK 1252

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Through a series of demonstrations on World Human
Rights Day (December 10),the Belarusian democratic forces
demonstrated unity in supporting hunger striking imprisoned
former opposition candidate Aleksandr Kozulin. Opposition
leaders also expressed gratitude for Congress' recent passage
of the Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act. However, the
opposition remains divided on the issue of boycotting
Belarus' January 14 local elections. Opposition party
leaders Lebedko and Vyachorka told Ambassador that they
flatly reject recent calls to withdraw from the elections,
but civil society leaders in a separate meeting with
Ambassador support a "well-timed" and coordinated boycott.
End Summary.

Opposition Unified in Supporting Kozulin
--------------


2. (C) On December 8, Ambassador met with two of the four
leaders of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) opposition
United Civic Party (UCP) Chair Anatoliy Lebedko and BPF Chair
Vintsuk Vyachorka to discuss their positions on supporting
Aleksandr Kozulin. Vyachorka recalled that Kozulin has
pledged to end the hunger strike he began on October 20 when
at least one G-8 member agreed to raise GOB human rights
violations at the UN Security Council or when the UDF
formally recognizes Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey
Sidorskiy as the legitimate head of state (ref A). Vyachorka
expressed concern that Kozulin was unable to understand the
complexity of his demands after 50 days of fast and isolation
in prison. Nevertheless, both leaders stressed their desire
to persuade Kozulin to end his hunger strike. Lebedko noted
the UDF would organize a street demonstration in support of
Kozulin and other political prisoners on World Human Rights
Day on December 10. The UDF also pledged to send a letter
relaying Kozulin's de
mands to Sidorskiy.


3. (U) A promised, the UDF organized a street rally on
December 10 in October Square in downtown Minsk. The 50 or

so participants formed a human chain and held up pictures of
Kozulin and other political prisoners for several minutes
before Belarusian special forces violently dispersed the
crowd. Belarusian authorities briefly detained 25
demonstrators, including Lebedko and UCP activist Valentija
PolevZ-KQ9 Before their release, police charged Lebedko and
Polevikova with "minor hooliganism," which carries a penalty
of up to 15 days in jail. Meanwhile, police arrested three
opposition Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) youth wing members
for allegedly distributing prohibited printed materials,
including reports by UN Human Rights Council Special
Rapporteur Adrian Severin, during a demonstration in support
of Kozulin near BPF headquarters.

Opposition Grateful for USG Support for Kozulin, BDRA
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Highlighting U.S. efforts with respect to issues
relahing to Kozulin's demands, Ambassador becalled President
Bush's statements at the recent NATO Summit in Riga and the
passage of the U.S.-sponsored resolution on Belarus in the UN
Third Committee. DCM aDded that the 109th Congress -- at the
behest of Speaker Hastert, whom the UDF leaders met in
September in Vilnius (ref B)-- had just approved the Belarus
Democracy Reauthorization Act (BDRA) as one of its last
actions. In response, Lebedko and Vyachorka expressed their
deepest gratitude to the USG and the Embassy for these
"concrete acts of support" to the opposition and the victims
of GOB repression.

Top UDF Leaders Oppose Election Boycott
--------------


5. (C) Despite the apparent unity on Kozulin and U.S.
support for Belarus' pro-democracy forces, the opposition is
split on participating in the January 14 local elections.
When asked by Ambassador whether the United Democratic Forces
(UDF) opposition coalition had decided to boycott the
elections, Lebedko and Vyachorka abjured any plans for the
parties to withdraw candidates. Vyachorka briefly seemed to

MINSK 00001273 002 OF 002


equivocate by noting that withdrawing from districts with
only one pro-government candidate could theoretically hurt
the GOB by denying its candidates absolute majorities
required in such districts under Belarusian election law.
Nevertheless, Vyachorka predicted that his party would not
likely pull out of the race and concurred with Lebedko that
the opposition would lose an important opportunity to engage
in dialogue with the Belarusian people if it boycotted the
local elections.


6. (C) Lebedko conceded that many UDF opposition candidates
in the regions, who were already under enormous pressure from
authorities, were discussing the possibility of boycotting
the elections after the opposition Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC) had endorsed a boycott at BPC's December 2
conference (ref C). However, Lebedko noted that he and other
opposition leaders would make 25 trips to support local
candidates outside Minsk and prevent "skepticism from
prevailing" in the opposition camp. Lebedko pledged that he
would try to convince opposition leaders at the UDF Political
Council not to throw in the towel on the local elections.
Vyachorka observed that much of the momentum for boycott
among lower-level activists was generated by opposition
Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) Chair
Anatoliy Levkovich's December 4 recommendation that BSDP
emulate the BPC boycott. (Note: Lebedko and Vyachorka
separately told Poloff that they believe Levkovich's call for
boycott was an emotional res
ponse to Kozulin's ongoing hunger strike and may not be
supported by all factions within BSDP.)

Civil Society Leaders Support Boyc^tt
--------------


7. (C) During a December 7 meeting with Ambassador, leading
civil society representatives strongly supported boycotting
the race. Viktor Gorbachev, whose assoFiation of
pro-democracy entrepreneurs has registered 80 opposition
candidates in local races, stated that his association and
other opposition groups were considering a withdrawal three
to five days before the elections. Gorbachev justified such
a@boycott on the grounds that participating in the election
process would permit the oppositioN the chance to engage in
its desired dialoguewith the Belarusian people but that
withdrawing bebore the actual vote would highligPt the
illegitimacy of the election results. Gorbachev praised the
spirit of BPC and BSDP's@apparent withdrawal but criTicized
opposition leaders for not coordinatinG their boycotts.


8. (C) During the same meeTing, Inna Kulei, wife of UDF
leader and formeR presidential candidate Aleksandr
MilinkevichQ echoed Gorbachev's support and logic for a
last-minute withdrawal bi opposition candidates. When
AmbAssadgr asied Kulei about the breadth of supportfor an
election boycott, Kulei indicted that plans to bmycott would
likely be backed by a mAjority of opposition leaders and
actRvists. However, she stoppe$ shobt of articulating her
husband's support for boycott. (Note: Although Milinkevich
has "een actively collecting signatures for candidates
throughout Belarus, he has been relatively silent on the
issue ofa boqcott,)

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The oppositiol forces' unity on Cozulin is
encouraging, but the deep divide over papticipation in the
local elections is a setback for the democratic foraes.
Thoqe candidates gho plan tm remain in the race will likely
confuse voterq because of the ambiguity of the oppocition'sQposition on the elections. Ideally, opposition candidates
gill reach a broad #onsensus on the importance of using the
campaign period to m`ximize c/ntacds with voters, and agree
to not withdraw from the electhons until after the campaign
period ends.
Stewart