LEFTIST PARTIES POISED TO BOYCOTT LOCAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001252

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BO
SUBJECT: LEFTIST PARTIES POISED TO BOYCOTT LOCAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. MINSK 1241


B. MINSK 1235

C. MINSK 1109

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Leftist opposition parties Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC) and Belarusian Social Democratic Party
(BSDP) "Gramada" intend to boycott the January 2007 local
elections on the grounds that participating in a rigged
process is pointless. A senior BPC member admitted to
Pol/Econ Chief that her party backtracked on its earlier
commitment to remain in the race but noted that party members
from the regions pushed the party in this new direction.
While the leftist parties recognize the lost opportunity to
deepen contact with voters, party members apparently have
determined that the personal risks involved outweigh the
benefits. The impact of this step on the unity of the
democratic coalition has yet to be determined but will
include at a minimum a more confused electorate. End Summary.

Opposition Communists To Withdraw from Local Elections
-------------- --------------


2. (C) On December 2, the pro-democratic Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC) voted to boycott the January 14 municipal
elections during a party convention. BPC Deputy Head Yelena
Skregin stressed to Pol/Econ Chief on December 5 that
withdrawal from the elections was not on the agenda of the
party convention; rather, regional delegates raised the
possibility of a boycott as a point of discussion. The
debate was apparently "heated and intense," but in the end,
51 out of 52 delegates voted in favor boycotting the
elections following the candidate registration period, which
ends on December 14.


3. (C) According to Skregin, delegates cited three main
reasons for boycotting the elections. First, delegates'
well-placed GOB contacts at local and regional levels
allegedly confirmed for them that the GOB has already
determined the list of winners of the local elections (ref
A). Second, the GOB did not select any of the BPC's nominees
for the election commissions. Finally, President
Lukashenko's November 23 blatant admission that his
government manipulated the results of the March presidential
elections was a clear signal to election officials to secure
another "thunderous victory" for the regime in the upcoming
local elections (ref B).


4. (C) Pol/Econ Chief told Skregin that this decision came
as a surprise to us because BPC Chair Sergey Kalyakin
personally assured Ambassador two months ago that his party
would participate in the local elections (ref C). Skregin
noted that during the convention Kalyakin pointed out the
fundamental disadvantage of boycotting the elections -- less
contact with voters -- but she conceded that Kalyakin's
position had changed. Kalyakin noted that a noble exit from
the race after BPC candidates were registered would show that
the party enjoyed popular support but is not willing to be a
pawn of the regime. Furthermore, Kalyakin reportedly made it
clear to all party members that the party will not prohibit
candidates remaining in the electoral race.

Kozulin's Party Follows Suit
--------------


5. (C) Anatoly Levkovich, Acting Chairman of imprisoned
leader Aleksandr Kozulin's Belarusian Social Democratic Party
(BSDP) "Gramada," confirmed for us on December 5 that the
party leadership recommended that BSDP candidates withdraw
from the electoral race. Levkovich echoed BPC's reasons for
boycotting the elections but noted that the party left the
final decision on participation in the elections with each
BSDP candidate.

Further Contact With Voters?
--------------


6. (C) Skregin admitted that withdrawal from the elections
would prohibit the party from legally campaigning against the
Lukashenko regime. However, she qualified that candidates
are allowed to engage in an open campaign only for a month,
from December 14 to January 14. Prior to December 14, many
of the candidates participating in the boycott intend to
knock on the doors of voters who signed their candidate
registration sheets to explain their reasons for withdrawal

MINSK 00001252 002 OF 002


from the race and to encourage them not to take part in the
sham. Following the elections, Skregin said her party will
begin a door-to-door campaign to gather signatures for a
legal repeal of the repressive contract employment system.

Alliance of Leftist Parties
--------------


7. (C) The BPC delegates also ratified Kalyakin's proposal
to form an alliance of leftist parties, including BCP, BSDP,
women's party Nadezhda, and the unregistered Labor Party.
When asked what this decision means for the opposition
coalition United Democratic Forces (UDF),Skregin stated that
the leftist alliance still falls under the rubric of the
coalition. However, Skregin noted that the leftist parties
could no longer ignore their ideological differences with the
right-wing parties and, consequently, decided to focus their
attention on a "leftist approach" to democratic change. The
leftist alliance plans to hold its first convention on
December 17 in Ukraine. (Note: The alliance was going to
hold the convention in Minsk, but a local convention hall
later withdrew their agreement. End note.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Skregin seemed unsure that she and her party made the
correct decision to boycott the elections. BPC's and BSDP's
move clearly suggests that party rank and file are finding it
increasingly difficult to participate in rigged municipal
elections. Party leaders stress that their members had
always approached the upcoming local elections with great
trepidation because they feared their participation would
only bring further repression on them and their families.
Thus far, the leadership of the right and centrist opposition
parties have not given any indication they plan to follow the
leftist parties' lead on withdrawing from the race.


9. (C) Comment Continued: It is unfortunate that the UDF is
not speaking with one voice on this fundamental issue.
Leftist-rightist disputes within the UDF are nothing new --
both sides can be correctly blamed for letting tensions flare
-- but we now face an unpleasant prospect of some in the UDF
pursuing this political process actively (in the context of
admittedly flawed elections) while others absent themselves.
Whatever the leftists' motives, the result will be that the
Belarusian "electorate" -- which due to state control of the
media already knows precious little about the opposition --
will see the opposition following conflicting political
directions.
Stewart