LUKASHENKO FOCUSES ON ENERGY SECURITY DURING CIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001244

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FOCUSES ON ENERGY SECURITY DURING CIS
SUMMIT

REF: A. MOSCOW 12711

B. MINSK 1234

C. MINSK 1235

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) On November 28, Minsk hosted the CIS Heads of State
summit. Although the agenda called for discussions on CIS
reform and other issues, few agreements were reached.
Lukashenko used the summit to negotiate with Russian
President Putin on gas prices and the fate of Belarus'
pipeline Beltransgaz. He also searched for other energy
sources and partners against Russia in a trilateral meeting
with his Azerbaijani and Ukrainian counterparts. However,
the Belarusian authorities' refusal to accredit Russian
journalists covering the summit dominated media attention.
End summary.

A BIG EVENT FOR MINSK
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2. (SBU) On November 28, 11 of the 12 CIS Heads Of State
gathered in Minsk for a summit at the Belarusian National
Library. The agenda included 27 topics of discussion,
including a report on the CIS's efficiency and development,
organizational reform, increased cooperation in the economic
and humanitarian spheres, security, illegal immigration, and
border demarcation. The CIS leaders made little progress on
these issues and spent most of their time in bilateral talks
(ref A).

Lukashenko's Priority: Energy Security
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3. (SBU) Lukashenko held bilateral talks with several CIS
leaders, but the most important meetings were those with
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Viktor
Yushchenko, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. In a
private meeting, Putin and Lukashenko discussed Russian
energy imports, particularly gas price increases and
negotiations over the fate of Belarus' pipeline Beltransgaz.
Details of the meeting were not publicized, but Putin told
reporters afterwards that he stressed Russia would switch to
market relations with all partners - no exceptions (including
Belarus). However, gas prices for Belarus would be partly
capitalized into the value of Beltransgaz, which would be
restructured into a Gazprom-Beltransgaz joint enterprise on a
"fifty-fifty" basis (ref B). Neither Lukashenko nor his
state media have confirmed Putin's statements.


4. (C) Another important meeting for Lukashenko was his
trilateral talk with Ukrainian and Azerbaijani counterparts
Yushchenko and Aliyev on energy cooperation. According to
official Belarusian news sources, Yushchenko suggested that
Azerbaijan supply oil to Belarusian refineries via Ukrainian
pipelines while Belarus and Ukraine coordinate rates for
Russian gas transit through their territories. (Comment: This
was likely a Lukashenko idea due to its similarities to
suggestions he made to Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych on November 24. He also suggested to Yanukovych
that Ukraine and Belarus form a political and economic union
(ref C). End comment.)

CIS Outlived Its Usefulness
--------------


5. (C) On November 30, political analyst Valeriy Karbolevich
criticized the CIS as a dead organization that only existed
to support nostalgia for the USSR, support and legitimize
totalitarian regimes, and provide a venue for bilateral talks
between leaders. Karbolevich told Poloff that organizations
such as the CIS, Collective Security Treaty Organizations
(CSTO) and European Economic Community (EurAsEc) provided
little benefit to Belarusians. According to Karbolevich,
Lukashenko highlights Belarus' leadership role in these
organizations to show Belarusians that their country and
president are not isolated from the world, but "important"
players in the international arena.

CIS Takes Back Seat to Journalist Scandal
--------------


6. (SBU) Belarus' refusal to accredit several Russian
journalists and the Russian response took much of the media
attention away from the CIS summit. On November 28,

MINSK 00001244 002 OF 002


Belarusian authorities denied accreditation to correspondent
Natalaya Galimova and photographer Aleksandr Astafyev of the
"Moscovskiy Komsomolets" and photographer Dmitriy Azarov of
"Kommersant" because, according to Lukashenko spokesman Pavel
Lyogkiy, the publications had "carried information and
photographs that were of an openly insulting nature for us."
The barring of the Russian journalists came on the heels of
the CIS summit of heads of government (PMs) on November 24 in
Minsk when Belarusian authorities prohibited several Russian
journalists from attending the final news conference.


7. (C) In response, Russian reporters left the CIS summit
before the final news conference, angering Belarusian
officials who considered the move "disrespectful." According
to Karbolevich, the Russian journalists were part of Putin's
press troupe. Therefore, the Belarusian authorities' refusal
to accredit them was an insult to the Kremlin. During a
press briefing at the Minsk airport before leaving for
Moscow, Putin told reporters that Lukashenko had called the
Russian journalist incident a "technical misunderstanding,"
but Putin's press office responded in kind by barring
Belarusian media correspondents and TV crews from attending
the news briefing.

Comment
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8. (C) The state media's headlines on November 29 captured
the fruitlessness of the summit: "There Is Potential, That Is
The Main Thing!" Lukashenko reported little about the
bilateral talks and the state press glossed over the issues
discussed. The lack of details from the Belarusian side on
Lukashenko's meeting with Putin is becoming a tell-tale sign
that Lukashenko either failed to reach an agreement with
Russia on gas prices and the fate of Beltransgaz, or made
concessions to Putin but is not ready to inform the public.
The journalist scandal sparked some interference from both
the Russian and Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
was another indication of the growing friction between
Lukashenko and Russia.
Stewart