RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR IN MINSK: GAS PRICE TO INCREASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001231

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET PINR BO RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR IN MINSK: GAS PRICE TO INCREASE
"RIGHT AWAY", DISDAIN FOR LUKASHENKO


MINSK 00001231 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During an introductory courtesy call, Ambassador was
told by her Russian counterpart that the price of natural gas
will be going up "right away" and that the Belarusian
opposition was still in early stages of development. Russian
Ambassador Surikov also noted that efforts continue behind
the scenes on the draft constitution for the Russia-Belarus
union state, while his comments demonstrated a clear lack of
regard for Belarus' dictator. End summary.


2. (U) In response to Ambassador Stewart's request for an
introductory courtesy call, Russian Ambassador Aleksandr
Aleksandrovich Surikov met November 30 with the Ambassador
and DCM for about one hour in the Russian Embassy's
reception/conference room (used two days earlier for
discussions between the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan). He was accompanied by Senior Counselor Vladimir
Nikolayevich Tararov and an interpreter.

Gas, Gas Prices
--------------


3. (C) Surikov spoke in matter-of-fact terms about gas,
noting that it was the main topic of recent
Russian-Belarusian discussions, and set the subject in the
context of the recent US-Russian agreement to advance
Russia's WTO candidacy. While noting that of course the U.S.
Congress will have to approve that agreement, he emphasized
the point we have heard before that the price of gas for
Belarus will be based on "open market principles" and will be
going up "right away." When asked about Lukashenko's
statements that he did not want to sell Beltransgaz, Surikov
said that Belarus had already signed an agreement on that in
2002, with the result Lukashenko was obliged to sell a share
in Beltransgaz "whether he wanted to or not." In this
context, he noted that an agreement on Beltransgaz would help
ease -- rather than prevent -- what might otherwise be a
sharp transition to inevitably higher prices.

Democratization, Opposition
--------------


4. (C) Surikov acknowledged Lukashenko's recent admission to
media that the March 2006 elections had been stolen, and
volunteered that results of January 2007 local elections will
also be falsified, but still made a plug for easing off
pressure on Lukashenko, expressing several times the hope
that the EU would build a better dialogue with the regime.
(At no point did he say that the United States should build
such a dialogue.) He argued that the process of
democratization in Belarus will take a very long time, and
that the process is hampered by the fact that so many
Belarusians are dependent on state employment. Surikov
acknowledged Ambassador Stewart's point that the placement of
all government employees on one-year contracts limits those
persons' willingness to provide political support to anyone
outside the regime. At the same time, Surikov was fairly
dismissive of the opposition, saying that it needed time to
develop, and ironically calling some of its members
"mercantilist" ("money-grubbing" was clearly the term he had
in mind).

Union State
--------------


5. (C) Implying that there was not much urgency to the issue
-- and that it had not been a key topic for the most recent
meeting between Putin and Lukashenko -- Surikov stressed
twice that Russia and Belarus are already in a union of two
sovereign, independent states and that only the constitution
needs to be defined. He confirmed that the constitution
would need to be submitted to the people in both countries
for a referendum, adding that lawyers in Russia were
examining the issue of when such a referendum might be
possible: referenda on domestic matters cannot be held the
same year that national elections are held, but there is some
thought that referenda on international matters are not
subject to the same limitation.

Atmospherics/Bio
--------------


6. (C) Surikov is known for generally eschewing diplomatic
functions and often turns down requests for meetings with
fellow chiefs of mission. The former Governor of the Altai
region -- he remains a loyal Siberian patriot, and reminisced

MINSK 00001231 002.2 OF 002


about winter temperatures of minus 55 degrees Celsius --
Surikov arrived in Minsk as Ambassador in March 2006, but did
not follow traditional protocol in visiting other diplomatic
missions. Initially rather cryptic and clipped in his
responses, he warmed up a bit over the course of the meeting,
and while he avoided divulging any particular details seemed
pleased to both discuss policy and make small talk. He
generally did not seek or maintain eye contact. Surikov
claimed to have visited all regions of Belarus except for
Mogilev, which he hoped to see next, in part for its
historical role as the location for the Russian military
headquarters during part of the First World War. He intends
to go home for the holidays. Surikov reported that the
Russians are building a new chancery, to be completed in
2008, and will turn their current building -- adjacent to our
embassy compound -- into the Russian Ambassador's residence.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Other than discussing the union state, Surikov
avoided providing direct insight into the bilateral
relationship or details of any Putin-Lukashenko dialogue.
The Russian Ambassador seems to reflect the disdain for
Lukashenko other official Russians have expressed: that
Surikov made no attempt to defend the regime's role in past
and future stolen elections, and asserted firmly that
Lukashenko will be held to his 2002 commitment to a deal on
Beltransgaz confirm to us that Surikov is unimpressed by
Belarus' dictator.
Stewart