INDEPENDENT POLLING REPORTS INCREASE IN INDEPENDENT RADIO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MINSK 001225

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLING REPORTS INCREASE IN INDEPENDENT RADIO
AUDIENCE

REF: A) MINSK 1117

Summary
--------------


1. Independent Belarusian pollster Manaev November 21 gave
Ambassador the results of his sixth and final post election survey.
According to his results, both the amount of Belarusians who listen
to foreign radio broadcasts and who use the internet continue to
increase. Support ratings decreased somewhat for Lukashenko, but
remained much higher than Milinkevich's ratings, which also
declined. Opposition parties and the Protestant Church remain the
least trusted institutions in civil society whereas the Orthodox
Church, the President, and the Army command the greatest trust. As
local council elections approach, more Belarusians plan to vote
than did in the 2003 local council elections, although they favor
pro-Lukashenko candidates over opposition candidates. Respondents
prefer a union with Russia over integration in the EU, but the
number of those supporting EU integration increased. The majority
of respondents disapprove of any union with Venezuela, Iran, and
China. End summary.


2. Independent polling service (IISEPS) director Oleg Manaev
presented Ambassador the sixth and final opinion polls conducted in
November (septel). IISEPS interviewed 1527 people. The margin of
error was 3%.

Independent Radio Slowly Gaining an Audience
--------------


3. IISEPS' November survey showed that the number of people who
listen to independent radio broadcasts from abroad increased by
9.7% between April and November. Internet usage also increased by
four percent since April. Manaev explained to Ambassador that
compared to polls conducted in Russia (which he did not present),
Belarusians were taking the lead in internet usage. In April, only
25% of respondents indicated that they used the internet. By
November, that percentage increased to 29.2%:

"Not long ago, new radio stations in Europe began to broadcast (in
Russian and Belarusian) to Belarus. Do you listen to these
broadcasts?"
YES

April November

European Radio, Belarus (Warsaw) 3.7% 6.2
Radio Racija (Biallystok) 1.9 4.5
Polonia (Warsaw) 3.1 4.5
Belaruski Khroniki-German Wave (Bonn) 2.4 4.0
Baltic Wave (Vilnius) 1.0 2.6

"Do you use the internet?"
April November

Yes, daily 4.7% 6.3
Yes, several times per week 8.8 7.7
Yes, several times per month 7.7 11.1
Yes, several times per year 3.8 4.1
No 70.1 65.1
No, I do not know what that is 3.9 5.5


4. Russian and Belarusian TV remains popular among Belarusians and
an increasing number of respondents trust Belarusian programs
notorious for their propaganda and anti-West rhetoric:

"What TV channels do you watch?"

February November

Russian TV (ORT, RTR, NTV) 80.2% 85.7
Belarusian TV (BT, ONT, STV) 88.3 89.0
Local TV 25.6 40.8
Cable TV 32.7 40.3
Satellite TV 16.2 18.4
Polish TV 10.9 11.6
Russian service Euronews 19.5 19.1
Weekly RTVI (for Belarus) 5.7 6.8

"Do you trust the analytic programs on Belarusian TV (Postscriptum,
Konturi, Zhyostki Razgovor)?"

February November

Yes 27.6% 36.2
Indifferent 46.9 36.4
No 24.7 17.5


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Milinkevich Ratings Continue to Decline
--------------


5. Similar to IISEPS' August survey results (ref B),Lukashenko
received the majority of votes in the March presidential elections
and Milinkevich received approximately 20%. However, Milinkevich's
ratings continue to decline while Lukashenko's ratings remain
relatively constant.

"Whom did you vote for in the 2006 presidential elections?"

March April June August November

Lukashenko 64.9% 63.1 61.9 55.5 52.7
Milinkevich 21.4 18.8 19.9 20.4 14.8
Kozulin 5.0 7.3 5.9 4.8 4.0
Gaidukevich 2.2 5.2 3.3 3.0 4.0

"If elections were tomorrow, whom would you vote for?"

April June August November

Lukashenko 60.3% 54.3 55.5 49.7
Milinkevich 18.4 13.6 11.6 10.3
Kozulin 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.5

"Name a Belarusian politician or civil society activist on the
national level who conveys your interests the most." (no more than
three answers per respondent)

Lukashenko 37.5%
Milinkevich 10.7
Kozulin 5.7
Sidorsky (PM) 4.5
Gaidukevich 3.1

"Do you know a candidate who could successfully compete against
Lukashenko in the next presidential elections?"

No 80.5%
Yes 17.6


Where Do Belarusians' Support Lie?
--------------


6. According to IISEPS, 47.8% of respondents support the
government, whereas 18.5% consider themselves opponents. However,
26.2% of those polled did not know whether they supported the GOB
or not. When asked, most respondents indicated that they trust
most the Orthodox Church, the President, and the army and
opposition parties and the Protestant Church the least:

"Do you trust the following government and social institutions?"

Yes No No Answer

Orthodox Church 65.8% 18.5 15.7
President 60.3 26.0 13.7
Army 58.6 28.6 12.8
Constitutional Court 52.3 30.4 17.3
State media 53.8 33.6 12.6
Courts 50.4 35.5 14.1
Government 49.0 35.7 15.3
Prosecutors 48.3 35.1 16.6
Government survey services 43.9 34.8 21.3
Human rights organizations 38.4 29.6 32.0
Central Election Committee 44.0 38.9 17.1
KGB 44.1 39.6 16.3
Independent survey services 37.4 35.9 26.7
Independent trade unions 37.7 38.6 23.7
Police 42.8 44.5 12.7
Catholic Church 36.8 40.1 23.1
Government trade unions 36.1 39.8 24.1
Local executive authorities 39.6 44.3 16.1
Local Council deputies 38.5 44.3 17.2
Pro-government political parties 35.6 42.9 21.5
Independent media 37.7 45.1 17.2
United entrepreneurs 32.4 40.4 27.2
Opposition political parties 21.4 57.5 21.1
Protestant Church 17.2 56.8 26.0

"What does the opposition need to do in order to gain greater
support from the population?" (respondents allowed three answers)

Be honest and fair 26.8%
Work better 25.2

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Elevate the standard of living 23.7
Change their methods of fighting 22.5
Consult the people 20.8
Opposition needs to unite 16.8
Have accessible programs 15.7
Not capable to do anything 13.7
No need for opposition 13.5
No answer 9.5

"After the presidential elections on March 19 the democratic forces
initiated various acts of protest in Minsk and other cities in
Belarus. Which one of the acts did you know about?" (more than one
answer possible)

October Square protests in Minsk, March 19-24 66.8%
Chernobyl March, April 26 30.0
Day of Will, March 25 25.0
Jeans Fest, September 16 14.4
Other acts 0.8
I know nothing about these acts 24.4

"How do you feel about these acts?"

Positively 19.5%
Indifferent 29.3
Negatively 41.2
No answer 10.0


Citizens Approve of Current Situation
--------------


7. An increasing number of respondents believe that Belarus is
moving in the right direction and has finally become a true
independent state. However, many Belarusians could not answer as
to whether Belarus' "progress" and independence had improved or
worsened their lives.

"In your opinion, are things in Belarus developing in the right or
wrong direction?"

February November

Right direction 58.4% 61.6
Wrong direction 28.1 24.0
No answer 13.4 14.4

"In the last 15 years has Belarus become a true independent state?"

Yes 68.8%
No 20.5
No answer 10.7

"Did you personally win or lose as a result of Belarus'
independence?"

Win 49.8%
Lose 15.6
No answer 34.6

"How will Belarus' social-economic situation change in the coming
years?"
August November

Improve 40.8(%) 42.5
No change 36.2 37.7
Worsen 12.0 10.7

"In your opinion, what would be the consequences on your family and
the country as a whole if the price of gas increased?"

Heating and service costs and the price of products would
drastically increase, and would worsen my family and
country's standing 34.9%
Heating and service costs and the price of products would
begin to increase, and would somewhat worsen my family and
country's standing 23.9
The country's leadership would find a solution to this
problem and will have no consequences on my family or country 36.0


Local Council Elections
--------------


8. Local council elections are scheduled for January 14, 2007.
According to IISEPS' polling, 65.7% of respondents plan to vote in
January, a 7.6% increase in participation since the 2003 local
council elections. Seventy percent of respondents could not

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identify people who would be appropriate candidates, but most would
choose a pro-Lukashenko candidate over an opposition party member:

"What type of candidate would you vote for in the upcoming
elections?"

A pro-Lukashenko candidate 49.6%
An anti-Lukashenko candidate 18.6
Not for any candidate 12.5
No answer 19.3

"If you wanted to vote for a candidate from a political party, then
which one?"

Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Kozulin) 7.2%
Women's party "Nadzyeya" (Eskova) 7.2
Liberal Democratic Party (Gaidukevich and pro-GOB) 6.2
Belarusian Green Party (Gromiko) 4.6
Belarusian Party of Communists (Kalyakin) 3.9
United Civic Party (Lebedko) 3.9
Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (Shushkevich) 3.1
Conservative Christian Party Belarusian National Front 2.7
Belarusian National Front (Vyachorka) 2.5
Another party 1.7
None of these 31.1
No answer 25.9


9. Although only 18.6% of respondents would vote for an opposition
candidate, the majority of those polled believe that opposition
members should be included in election commissions and election
observation:

"Do you think that the election commissions should include
representatives of all political parties, including the
opposition?"

Yes 64.8%
No 24.5

"Do you think that representatives from all political parties,
including the opposition, should be able to observe the election
process at polling stations?"

Yes 67.8%
No 22.8"


10. However, few respondents believe local councils play an active
role in citizens' lives:

To what extent do local councils and their deputies influence your
life?"

Greatly influence 18.4%
Somewhat influence 37.1
Do not influence 36.5

"In your opinion, should local councils' authority be increased?"

Yes 34.0%
No 43.8
No answer 22.2


The Russian Union Question
--------------


11. "How would you vote if a referendum was held today on the
uniting of Belarus and Russia?"

February November

For 43.3% 46.0
Against 33.2 33.5
Would not participate 13.8 10.6
No answer 9.9 9.9

"It is possible that soon in Belarus and Russia a referendum will
be held on the Constitutional Act which would open the path to
closer integration between the two states. How would you vote?"

April November

For 48.2% 38.4
Against 28.3 21.4
Will not participate 10.4 8.1
Depends on the circumstances -------------- 27.1
No answer -------------- 5.0


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"One opinion is that if Belarus and Russia unite into one state,
Belarusians would be able to participate in the Russian
presidential elections in 2008. If this happened, for who would
you vote?"

For Lukashenko 46.0%
For Putin 16.7
Neither 26.5
No answer 10.8

"What do you think about Lukashenko's statement made during a
recent press conference for Russian journalists: "If tanks moved
from there (i.e. from West) towards Russia, we would die for
Russia. Our people should be ready for this."?

Do not accept nor support this statement 51.4%
I accept and support this statement 25.9
I do not care 10.8
No answer 11.9

"Not long ago Georgian authorities accused several Russian officers
of espionage. In response, Russia organized a blockade against
Georgia. In your opinion, is it possible that Russia would use
similar methods against Belarus if a conflict arose between our
countries, i.e. gas prices?"

Possible 39.8%
Not possible 45.8
No answer 14.4


Warmer Respo.se to EU, But Colder for Outposts of Tyranny
-------------- --------------


12. Belarusians' attitude towards the EU changed considerably since
February. IISEPS' result showed that those for Belarus'
integration with the EU increased 8.3% since February and those
against decreased 6.5%:

"If a referendum were held tomorrow on Belarus' admission to the
EU, how would you vote?"

February November

For 27.7% 36.0
Against 42.7 36.2
Would not participate 16.4 15.5
No answer 13.2 12.3


13. Approximately 27 percent of respondents know the European
Commission (EC) is threatening to suspend the General System of
Preferences (GSP) from Belarus. Manaev noted to Ambassador the
significance of the public's knowledge of the GSP, because it
showed that they were aware of the situation despite the lack of
reporting in the state media.


14. Belarusians showed different attitudes to countries that
Lukashenko has publicly called Belarus' closest allies. According
to IISEPS' polling, 52.9% of those surveyed do not want Belarus to
form any union with countries such as Venezuela, Iran, and China.
58.3% of respondents believe that they are much closer to Americans
and Europeans than citizens of China, Iran, and Venezuela.


Comment
--------------


15. IISEPS' survey revealed that Belarusians have grown somewhat
more wary of Lukashenko. Although 49% of respondents would vote
for Lukashenko if elections were held tomorrow, only 38% feel that
he represents their interests. However, most Belarusians still
have not found a person, especially within the opposition, who they
feel is capable of taking Lukashenko's place; over one-third are
even confident that Lukashenko can make adjustments in the event
that Russia raises energy prices. Thus, as before, the Belarusian
opposition has much terrain to cover before it can take advantage
of the small but growing discontent in the country.

STEWART