Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1221
2006-11-24 14:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

POLITICAL PARTY DEPUTIES POINT FINGERS WHILE

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL BO 
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R 241439Z NOV 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5359
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RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1349
RUEHBS/USMISSION USEU 0154Q
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001221 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY DEPUTIES POINT FINGERS WHILE
MEETING AMBASSADOR


MINSK 00001221 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001221

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY DEPUTIES POINT FINGERS WHILE
MEETING AMBASSADOR


MINSK 00001221 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Ambassador on November 17 met with deputy leaders of
pro-democratic political parties to gauge the unity within
the coalition and the progress in the local council
elections. The deputy leaders reported a small victory in
receiving registration for most of their initiative groups,
although they cited cases of harassment from the authorities
that resulted in several registration denials. Milinkevich's
"For Freedom" movement has fallen on deaf ears among several
key coalition political parties who believe the movement
would further divide the coalition. Although they realized
that the coalition's inactivity was a problem, deputy leaders
refused to take responsibility or blamed each other for the
lack of forward movement. The coalition generally remains
united in the local election process and in the preparations
for another democratic congress, but their heated debate
indicated that the coalition parties have difficulty finding
common ground on what they should do next. End summary.


2. (C) Ambassador in a November 17 introductory meeting met
with deputy heads of the Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC)
Elena Skrigan, Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP)
Anatoliy Levkovich, Belarusian National Front (BNF) Viktor
Ivashekvich, United Civic Party (UCP) Igor Shinkarik, and
coordinator for coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich's "For
Freedom" movement, Viktor Korneyenko. According to the
deputies, the United Democratic Forces (UDF) coalition had
internal problems, but member organizations remain committed
to pursuing democratic change.

Elections Proving to Be a Fapce, As Expected
--------------


3. (C) The party deputies reiterated to Ambassador that
authorities had already determined the results of the local
council elections scheduled for January 14, 2007, and would
take adequate measures to ensure that opposition activists
were excluded from the councils. Therefore, the coalition

would use the elections as a legal means to meet with
citizens and distribute information. The latest stage in the
election process, the registration of initiative groups, or
those groups that nominate an individual as a candidate and
gather signatures for his/her registration generally did not
pose a major obstacle for opposition political parties. The
UCP successfully registered 162 initiative groups, the BPC -
220, the BNF - 140, and the BSDP - 142.


4. (C) However, the deputies claimed that election
commissions denied several initiative groups registration for
ridiculous reasons. In the most public cases, election
commissions denied UCP leader Anatoliy Lebedko's and BPC
leader Sergey Kalyakin's initiative groups registration
because several initiative group members were allegedly
"coerced" into participating or included in the groups
without their consent. This was the reason most commonly
used by authorities to deny registration. Leader of the
Belarusian Party of Freedom and Progress Vladimir Novasyad in
a Nmvember 14 meeting with Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff cited
multiple instances of authorities pressuring his initiative
group members into claiming that they were "coerced" into
participating. In many cases, factory directors and
university deans called into their offices members of
initiative groups for "chats" about their political
activities within an hour after the activists applied for
registration at the election commissions. BNF deputy Andrei
Sarotnik on November 14 confirmed to Poloff Novasyad's
claims, adding that Belarusian KGB officers were present in
many of the meetings.

Self-Preservation More Important Than Elections
-------------- --


5. (C) Levkovich told Ambassador that as a precaution, the
BSDP advised all activists to abandon their election
activities if they were threatened with job loss or school
eviction because the BSDP did not have the resources to
support them in case of dismissal. Ivashkevich noted that
for this reason, most of the BNF's initiative group members
and candidate hopefuls were not employees of state
industries. BPC deputy Skrigan told Ambassador that such
preca5tions might work in the city, but in the regions they
were not enough to avoid the authorities' pressure. The

MINSK 00001221 002.2 OF 002


population in the regions is significantly sparser, making it
easier for authorities to determine who is supporting the
opposition, even through voter ballots. According to
Skrigan, the BPC will continue to monitor GOB harassment and
will encourage members to drop out of the race should the
harassment increase.

Who Is At Fault For Coalition Inactivity?
--------------


6. (C) The political party deputies argued loudly about who
was to blame for problems within the coalition, including its
inactivity. Levkovich, whose BSDP is not part of the
coalition, chastised the UDF for wasting six months after
presidential elections on power struggles and writing plans
rather than continuing the fight when they had the support of
the masses. According to Levkovich, the coalition
immediately following the elections should have analyzed the
pros and cons of their campaign, including who were the most
effective leaders and activists. If changes had been made
right away, more progress could have been made.


7. (C) Ivashkevich and Shinkarik named Milinkevich's "For
Freedom" movement as a contributor to fragmentation within
the coalition. Korneyenko tersely refuted the accusations,
stressing that the movement was the answer to the coalition's
inactivity and reflected the wishes of many disgruntled
regional activists. He told Ambassador that he wanted to
correct the "misinformation" about the movement, claiming it
was not a political party and would encourage all UDF parties
to join. Ivashkevich cautioned that if all parties joined,
the movement had the possibility to replace the UDF.
Korneyenko reassured the party deputies that the movement's
purpose was to carry out street actions to attain free and
fair elections. Once this was achieved, the movement would
disband.


8. (C) Shinkarik scoffed at the movement's purpose, noting
that the opposition had created the Five Plus Coalition
(which developed into the UDF) for the same reason.
Korneyenko agreed, but noted the coalition's ineffectiveness
in pursuing this goal and its negative effect on
Milinkevich's reputation as a leader. Levkovich quickly
responded that if Milinkevich wanted to have the respect of
an active leader, then he should be standing outside the
prison where authorities are holding Kozulin and demanding
his release. If Milinkevich wanted activity, Levkovich
argued, he should have used Qozulin's arrest as motivation to
continue with the street actions that occurred during the
presidential elections.

A Second Congress Might Help
--------------


9. (C) All the political deputies agreed that a second
congress would eliminate some of the problems among the UDF
national leadership, though not all of them. Ivashkevich
noted that at the first congress half of the participants
were upset that Milinkevich was elected as the coalition
candidate. At the second congress, delegates will elect a
chair of the UDF political council with more responsibility
and authority. Regardless of the outcome, people's ambitions
will be hurt.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The Ambassador's meeting with the political party
deputies underscored the unity within the UDF on general
issues such as the local council elections and a second
congress. However, the heated arguments - which contrasted
with the restraint usually shown by the UDF's most senior
leaders - demonstrBted the active fissures@within the
coalition. Ironically, one of the main dividing issues is
each party's attempt to set the course of the coalition
following the local elections and congress. As reported
previously, Milinkevich's "For Freedom" movement thus far has
not struck a chord with his UDF colleagues, who fear the
movement would decrease their support base. The repression
of Lukashenko's dictatorial regime continues to be the
strongest unifier of the opposition forces, but their
excessive focus on internal organization rather than on their
Belarusian audience is a clear constraint on their
effectiveness.
Stewart