Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1159
2006-10-31 10:15:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 31,

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001159 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 31,
2006


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001159

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 31,
2006



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by
Embassy Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------

- Milinkevich Wins European Parliament's Sakharov Award (para. 2)
- Skrebets Will Be Released in November (para. 3)
- Activist Arrested Near Presidential Administration (para. 4)

ELECTIONS
--------------
- Candidates in Large Cities Get Radio Spots (para. 5)
- District Election Commissions Formed by October 30 (para. 6)
- Opposition Appeals Exclusion from Executive Committee para. 7)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------

- Interagency Committee on Border Cooperation in Minsk (para. 8)


TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------

- Belarus' Food Imports Up 21.9 Percent (para. 9)
- Iran Considers Opening Bank in Belarus (para. 10)

DOMESTIC ECONOMICS
--------------

- One Quarter of Industrial Companies in Red (para. 11)
- Average pay in Belarus Up 7.9 percent in September (para. 12)
- Lukashenko Raises Pensions by Nine Percent (para. 13)

- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 14)

--------------
Civil Society
--------------


2. Milinkevich Wins European Parliament's Sakharov Award

On October 26, independent Belarusian media reported that
opposition leader and former presidential candidate Aleksandr
Milinkevich won the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for
Freedom of Thought. The European Parliament (EP) will present the
award to Milinkevich during a formal plenary session on December

13. The EP's Delegation for Relations with Belarus nominated
Milinkevich on the grounds that he "succeeded in uniting the
opposition forces and expressing the desire of a large part of
Belarus society to restore democratic rights and political freedoms
in their country." In December 1985, the EP created the prize,
named after Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov, to honor individuals
or organizations that dedicated their lives to the defense of human
rights. The Belarusian Association of Journalists won the prize in

2004.


3. Skrebets will Be Released in November

On October 27, independent media reported that opposition
politician Sergei Skrebets will be released from prison on November

15. According to Skrebets' brother Aleksandr, authorities agreed
to cut Skrebets' prison term by one year under Belarus' amnesty law
because he has already served more than half of his term and has a
good conduct record. On February 14, the Supreme Court found
Skrebets guilty of fraudulent bank loans and sentenced him to two
years and six months in a minimum-security correctional facility.
Skrebets denounced the conviction as politically motivated.


4. Activist Arrested Near Presidential Administration

On October 26, Borisov-based opposition Belarusian Social
Democratic Party "Gramada" (BSDP) activist Ales Abramovich was
arrested in Minsk after he unfurled a sign reading "Freedom to
Kozulin and other political prisoners!" near the Presidential
Administration building. Authorities also apprehended independent
journalists Galina Abakunchik of the Belarusian Service of RFE/RL
and Kseniya Alimova of the private weekly Belorusy i Rynok.
Authorities released the reporters after two hours without charges.
Abramovich was charged with holding an unsanctioned demonstration
and taken to the Leninsky District Court for trial.

--------------
Elections
--------------


5. Candidates in Large Cities Get Radio Spots

MINSK 00001159 002 OF 003



On October 26, the Belarusian Central Election Commission announced
that candidates running in larger cities and districts during
Belarus' January 14 local elections would be allowed five-minute
pre-recorded appearances on local radio networks but refused air
time to candidates running in smaller and rural constituencies.
CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina noted that addresses calling for war or
for the overthrow of the constitutional order, inciting social,
religious, ethnic and race hatred, as well as defaming government
officials and other candidates would not be broadcast. The CEC
also adopted a directive that allows persons serving "arrest"
sentences to vote. A total of 1,587 people were serving sentences
in jail as of September 1.


6. District Election Commissions Formed by October 30

On October 25, CEC Secretary Nikolay Lozovik announced that the
formation of the district election commissions for the January 14
local elections will be completed by October 30. According to
Lozovik, only political parties, "workers' collectives" having no
fewer than 30 members, and individuals who have collected no fewer
than 30 voter signatures will have the right to nominate candidates
to the 369 district election commissions throughout Belarus. The
deadline for nominations to district commissions was October 27.
Formation of territorial election commissions was completed on
October 20.


7. Opposition Party Appeals Exclusion from Executive Committee

On October 25, opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party
"Gramada" (BSDP) Brest-regional chapter leader Igor Maslovskiy sent
an appeal to the Brest Regional Executive Committee asking why BSDP
nominee and former Brest city election commission member Pavel
Kornev was not included in the current regional election
commission. Another BSDP nominee, Vitaly Nagorny, was also denied
membership. Other opposition parties recently reported that the
CEC has also not accepted any of their nominations for the election
commissions.

--------------
International Relations
--------------


8. Inter-Agency Committee on Border Cooperation in Minsk

On October 26, the Inter-Agency Committee on Border Cooperation
with Neighboring Countries met at Belarus' Foreign Ministry to
discuss cross-border cooperation among Poland, Ukraine, Latvia,
Lithuania, and Belarus and receive a report on the European
Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI),which will replace
the Technical Assistance for the CIS (TACIS) program from 2007 to

2013. The meeting included representatives of all six regional
executive committees, district executive committees, the TACIS
National Coordination Unit, the State Border Troops Committee, the
State Customs Committee, and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs,
Economics, Transport, Finance, Energy, and Environment.

--------------
Trade and Investment
--------------


9. Belarus' Food Imports Up 21.9 Percent

On October 24, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis
reported that Belarus' food imports increased 21.9 percent on the
year in January-August to USD 914.1 million. Imports from Russia
totaled USD 392.1 million, up 18.1 percent. Belarus mainly
imported ready-to-eat foods, worth USD 677 million, from January to
August, an increase of 18.5 percent on the year. The share of
foods in Belarus' total exports reached 7.2 percent, down 0.8
percentage point on the year. Belarusian companies' food exports
rose 15.8 percent on the year in January-August to USD 938 million.
Exports of food to Russia increased 17 percent on the year to USD
709.4 million.


10. Iran Considers Opening Bank in Belarus

On October 23, during an official visit to Tehran, Belarus' Foreign
Minister Sergei Martynov and Iran's Commerce Minister Masud Mir-
Kazemi discussed the possibility of opening a bank in Minsk with
100 percent Iranian capital. Martynov also met with the chairman
of Iran's Chamber of Commerce. Martynov and senior Iranian
officials agreed to establish a joint business cooperation council,
which will coordinate efforts of the Belarusian and Iranian
chambers of commerce and provide assistance to businesses.

--------------
Domestic Economy
--------------


MINSK 00001159 003 OF 003



11. One Quarter of Industrial Companies in Red
On October 23, the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis projected
that many as 582 industrial enterprises, or 25.3 percent of all
industrial enterprises, operated at a loss in the first eight
months of 2006. Their losses reportedly totaled USD 109 million.
The number of unprofitable enterprises amounted to 40.6 percent of
firms in light industry, 27 percent in the fuel industry, 26
percent in food processing, 25.3 percent in the chemical and
petrochemical industries, 24.3 percent in the timber, woodworking
and paper industries, 20.2 percent in the machine building and
metalworking industries, 20.1 percent in the construction materials
industry, and 4.8 percent in the ferrous metal industry.

13. Average Pay in Belarus Up 7.9 percent in September

On October 24, citing a recent GOB analysis, independent media
reported that inflation-adjusted average pay in September was 7.9
percent higher than in December 2005. Consumer prices rose by 3.1
percent during that same period. Real average pay rose by 19.7
percent in Belarus in 2005. The dollar equivalent of the average
before-tax monthly pay went up from USD 261 in December 2005 to USD
283 in September.


14. Lukashenko Raises Pensions by Nine Percent

On October 20, independent media reported that President Lukashenko
issued a presidential edict raising retirement pensions by nine
percent as of November 1. The average retirement pension will
amount to USD 133, up from USD 121. Lukashenko has raised
retirement pensions twice this year. Meanwhile, the GOB increased
the minimum pension rate and social pensions three times. Taken
together, these measures have increased the average pension 17.8
percent since January 1.

--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------


15. During an interview with Deutsche Welle, Belarusian MP Sergey
Kostyan offered the following tortured insight regarding Belarus'
potential need for nuclear weapons:

"If we were besieged, like Cuba, Iran, the Democratic People`s
Republic of Korea, we would have to protect ourselves. America has
constructed two military bases along our borders. The Poles are
going to sell more land for one more to be constructed. What
should we do? As for nuclear weapons, this question would never be
brought up in the leading circles of our country. Heaven forbid,
and I do not want that. But, life is so unpredictable, and
sometimes it makes us do the things we do not want."

Stewart