Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1149
2006-10-27 05:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

LOCAL ELECTION PROCESS DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL BO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001149 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.K. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION PROCESS DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR
DEMOCRACY

REF: MINSK 1056

Classi&ied By: Ambassador Karen Stegart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001149

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.K. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION PROCESS DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR
DEMOCRACY

REF: MINSK 1056

Classi&ied By: Ambassador Karen Stegart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC)
approved a calendar of the process for the January 14, 2007
local council elections, listing the dates territorial
election commissions are to be formed, the time period for
nominees to gather signatures( and the date marking the
beginning of the campaign. Although the process has the
veneer of transparency, recent history, the new election code
amendments, and statements made by the Belarusian president
indicate that the CEC will again take the necessary steps to
ensure a "thunderous victory" for the regime candidates, as
it did with Lukashenko in the stolen March 2006 presidential
elections. End summary.

CEC Praises One Amendment, Ignores the Rest
--------------


2. (SBU) On October 10, Lukashenko approved the amendments to
the Electoral Code (reftel). The state media announced the
changes, but mainly focused on the elimination of
second-round voting and the USD 13.3 million it would save
the national budget. Head of the Central Election Committee
(CEC) Lidiya Yermoshina and the state media largely ignoreD
the other amendments, only stating that they were not
revolutionary and that most voters would not perceive any
changes at all.


3. (C) Human rights lawyers from the Belarusian Helsinki
Commission Garry Pogonayilo and Oleg Gulak in an October 13
meeting with Emboffs agreed that the elimination of
second-round voting was not problematic. However, they
viewed the remaining amendments as means to strengthen the
GOB's "Soviet style" electoral system in which elected
officials were in reality government appointees. In a recent
meeting with the CEC, one of Yermoshina's deputies indirectly
confirmed to Gulak that the purpose of the amendments was to
"merely bring the law into compliance with existing local
practices."

Election Commissions Without Opposition, Again
-------------- -


4. (U) The CEC recently approved a calendar of important
dates in the election process in accordance with Belarus'

Electoral Code. Incumbent local soviets and executive
committees are to establish oblast, regional, city, and Minsk
city level election committees by October 20, precinct
committees by October 30, and polling station election
committees by November 29. Registered political parties,
labor collectives, and civil society and initiative groups
are allowed to nominate individuals to the election
committees. However, opposition political parties reported
on October 23 that the CEC thus far has refused to include
any of their nomineer.

Registration of Opposition Candidates an Uphill Battle
-------------- --------------


5. (U) The CEC calendar also stipulates that political
parties, labor collectives, and initiative groups have from
November 4 to December 5 to nominate candidates for the
22,641 available council seats. Individuals nominated by
registered parties and organizations must only fill out the
necessary paperwork (including income and asset
declarations),but those nominated by initiative groups and
unregistered parties and organizations must collect
signatures. The vast majority of opposition parties and NGOs
will have to submit signatures, because their organizations
are generally not registered in the election districts where
they plan to ompete. The number of signtures needed
dependson the size of the district, ranging from 150
sinatures for Minsk city and oblast councils to 20
signatures for small city and village councils. Nominees and
their support teams may distribute the nominees' biographical
data while collecting signatures, but are strictly prohibited
from campaigning or distributing campaign mat
erial.


6. (U) The United Democratic Forces (UDF) plans to nominate
700-900 candidates. Out of that figure, the United Civic
Party (UCP) is nominating 200 candi$ates, the BNF - 180
candidates, the Belarusian Party of Communists - 130, and the

MINSK 00001149 002.2 OF 003


Belarusian Social-Democratic Party - 100. Nominees must
submit all signatures and paperwork to their respective local
election commissions by December 4. Territorial and precinct
commissions have from December 5 to December 14 to verify the
signatures and register the nominees as candidates. Once
registered, candidates can immediately begin campaigning
until January 13, the day before Election Day.


7. (C) Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian National Front (BNF)
Viktor Ivashkevich predicted to Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff
October 18 that most opposition nominees would not be
registered as candidates. Citing the 2003 local council and
2004 parliamentary elections, Ivashkevich noted the election
committees' practice of eliminating nearly all pro-democracy
candidates at this stage for "discrepancies" in their
nomination or signature lists. In 2003, the CEC only
registered a handful of BNF's nominees. The CEC apparently
denied registration to those individuals nominated by
registered opposition party chapters on the basis that the
nominees failed to gather signatures, even though the law
exempted them from this requirement. Ivashkevich expects the
situation to be the same in the upcoming elections, if not
worse, given Lukashenko's recent statements that the
approximately 85 existing opposition local council deputies
should not be re-elected to local councils. On October 13,
Lukashenko told reporters that "bu
sinesslike" individuals, such as teachers, doctors, factory
workers, and peasants who are not "politicized" or "vocal"
should be elected to the councils.

Restrictions on Meetings and Campaign Financing
-------------- --


8. (SBU) Another controversial amendment requires candidates
to apply to the local authorities five days in advance for
permission to hold meetings with voters outdoors. Once
permission is granted, the meetings can take place only in
areas designated by the local authorities. In previous
elections, candidates were not required by law to apply for
permission, although in practice authorities often used this
pretext to prevent or disrupt such meetings. Another
amendment allows the CEC to deny registration to candidates
using foreign financial or material assistance, including the
use of material printed abroad. The last clause is extremely
disadvantageous for opposition candidates, who are often
barred from Belarusian printing presses and forced to print
in Russia and Lithuania.

Greater Restrictions on Election Observation
--------------


9. (SBU) Domestic election observers must be official members
of registered organizations and can no longer be delegated
representatives. Pro-democratic organizations view this new
requirement as a way for the GOB to "legally" exclude
opposition and independent observation groups from monitoring
the election process, given that the GOB-sanctioned process
for membership in non-state organizations is time-consuming
and cumbersome.

A Notorious CEC
--------------


10. (SBU) The likely reappointment of CEC members implicated
in past election manipulations also sheds doubt on the
transparency of the upcoming elections. CEC members' terms
expire in January 2007, but by October 12, nominations were
already completed and submitted to Lukashenko for approval.
Half of the incumbent CEC members, including Yermoshina and
her Secretary Nikolai Lozovik--both on the U.S. and EU visa
bans for their direct involvement in the manipulation of the
2006 presidential elections--were nominated.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The regime is doing its best via public statements
and the state media to convince the public that the local
elections will be free and fair. Fortunately, the opposition
understands the importance of going through the election
process and are not following the suggestion of former head
of state Stanislav Shushkevich that the local elections
should be boycotted. Opposition forces, however, are
convinced the elections will be more fraudulent than those in
2003; We also expect the same irregularities and violations
in this election that we witnessed in previous elections. We
will likely observe the exclusion of pro-democracy
representatives from all election commissions, the denial of

MINSK 00001149 003.2 OF 003


registration to opposition candidates, and blatant government
interference in opposition campaigns. To the extent the
regime has determined the international community is not
focused on Belarus' local council elections, the authorities'
may even feel more emboldened to undermine the opposition's
efforts to contest the
local races. We will continue to highlight the abuses
committed by the regime in the run up to the election and
will encourage our European colleagues in Belarus to do the
same.
Stewart