"16" NOT SO SWEET: DAYS OF SOLIDARITY CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001123

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
KYIV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: "16" NOT SO SWEET: DAYS OF SOLIDARITY CAMPAIGN
WANING, THOUGH USEFUL

REF: A. 05 MINSK 1419


B. MINSK 654

C. MINSK 739

D. MINSK 951

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) September 16, 2006 marked the first anniversary of
the "Days of Solidarity" opposition campaign in Belarus.
Planned as a series of monthly candle-lighting ceremonies on
the 16th of each month honoring the memories of disappeared
opponents of the Lukashenko regime, the campaign evolved into
an opposition demonstration movement. However, a predictable
schedule allowed GOB security services to obstruct events,
and the major opposition parties provided little support.
Nevertheless, the campaign has helped opposition forces
expand and maintain contacts among lower-level pro-democracy
youth activists during the otherwise politically inactive
period immediately following the March presidential
elections. End summary.

The Origins and Evolution of Solidarity
--------------


2. (U) For the past year, opposition activists in Belarus
have observed a "Day of Solidarity" on the 16th day of each
month to commemorate the unexplained 1999 disappearances of
opposition politician Viktor Gonchar and opposition activist
and businessman Anatoliy Krasovskiy. Opposition youth
activist Nikita Sasim, journalist Irina Khalip, and Irina
Krasovskaya, the widow of Anatoliy Krasovskiy, began the
Solidarity campaign on September 16, 2005, by encouraging
friends and sympathizers of the disappeared to turn off the
lights in their homes and place lit candles in their windows
at 8 p.m. on the 16th day of each month. However, many
sources related to Emboffs that participants would often
position their lit candles out of public sight (ref A).
Following the fraudulent March 19 Belarusian elections, the
campaign evolved into a nationwide campaign of opposition
demonstrations, primarily focused on Days of Solidarity
street protests near the Russian Embassy in Minsk, and
gradually attracted the involvement
of several top opposition party leaders. Press reports
indicated that dozens of supporters of the movement lit
candles outside the Russian and Belarusian embassies in
nearby countries. Some of the widows of the disappeared
remain strong supporters of the campaign, which uses
stickers, clothing, and graffiti with the staple figure "16."


The GOB Shoots Fish in a Barrel
--------------


3. (C) During April and May, Solidarity's turn out was
relatively impressive, between 70 and 100 protesters, and
unfettered by GOB security services. However, by early
summer, the GOB ratcheted up both its presence and tactics
outside the Russian Embassy and, in so doing, revealed the
first weakness of Days of Solidarity as a post-election
opposition demonstration movement, i.e. its strategy of
staging anti-GOB demonstrations each month at the same time
and same place. Despite pro-opposition media's reporting
that the June 16 demonstration included as many as 100
activists who stood in line and lit candles outside the
Russian Embassy, human rights lawyer Ales Kalyeta later
related to Poloff that police prevented the event from taking
place by detaining 30 activists before they reached the
Russian Embassy and by immediately arresting the 20 that were
able to congregate near the embassy. Several activists were
beaten, including one young activist, Lyubov Kuchinskaya, who
was hospitalized for serious injurie
s (ref B).


4. (SBU) The GOB crackdown continued during the July 16
demonstration, which coincided with the G-8 Summit in St.
Petersburg. GOB security forces deployed heavy trucks, two
40-person buses, and several jeeps filled with OMON riot
police. On the street corners two hundred meters away from
the adjacent Russian and American Embassies, two-man police
teams dressed in jeans jackets and pants patrolled on foot
and seized anyone who appeared to be a possible protestor
before reaching the Russian Embassy. After each capture,
police radioed to the pre-positioned jeeps, which picked up
those detained and sped away. Poloff observed Belarusian

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police detain as many as 40 people near the Russian Embassy,
including senior opposition coalition member and United Civic
Party (UCP) leader Anatoliy Lebedko. Although Poloff
witnessed police use excessive force against many of the
protestors, Poloff did not observe force used against
Lebedko. Meanwhile, authorities in the western cities of
Brest and Grodno detained eight c
andle-bearing activists. All July 16 detainees except
Lebedko and another UCP activist, Evgeniy Askerko, were
released without charge (ref C).


5. (SBU) By the end of summer, Solidarity's light seemed to
fade. On the evening of August 16, Poloff patrolled the
vicinity of the Russian Embassy in Minsk, adjacent to the
U.S. Embassy, for almost two hours. During that time, no
opposition demonstrators appeared. The GOB security
services' presence was lighter than the previous month but
still included at least two jeeps and one bus filled with 40
riot policemen who never left their vehicle. The following
day, independent media reported the brief detention of 10
youth activists in the eastern city of Gomel but none in
Minsk. (Note: On August 4, several Solidarity activists
outside the Minsk courthouse during the trial of independent
NGO "Partnership" leaders told Poloff that a major
demonstration on the 16th was unlikely because most student
activists would be on vacation.) The only notable event,
besides the Gomel candle-lighting ceremony, was a visit by
Lebedko and UCP Deputy Lyudmila Gryaznova with political
prisoner Andrey Klimov, who was sentence
d to two years of restricted freedom in March 2005.

Opposition Parties Show Mixed Support for Movement
-------------- --------------


6. (C) During the summer of 2006, Solidarity revealed its
second handicap as an opposition demonstration movement.
With the exception of Lebedko, no major opposition party
leaders consistently participated in high-profile
candle-lighting protests. This apparent lack of interest
spanned the ranks of opposition parties. For example, UCP
youth-wing leader Kiril Ignatik told Poloff on September 29
that, despite Lebedko's involvement, he did not encourage his
organization's members to participate in any of the Days of
Solidarity demonstrations and believed that the movement
would have no long lasting effect on the political culture of
Belarus. Gryaznova recently told Pol/Econ Chief that she and
others did not participate in Solidarity events because they
were primarily organized "for the youth."


7. (C) Youth activists associated with the Days of
Solidarity movement staged a GOB-sanctioned demonstration and
concert called "Jeans Fest for Freedom" at Minsk's People's
Friendship Park (ref C). Solidarity organizers had high
hopes for robust participation and support from Belarusian
activists. Among the principal organizers was opposition
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) party Deputy Chair Viktor
Ivashkevich, who helped recruit the list of high-file
speakers that included Lebedko, former opposition
presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, and BPF Chair
Vintsuk Vyachorka. Moreover, Jeans Fest organizer and Zubr
youth NGO leader Aleksandr Atroshchenkov told Poloffs on
August 29 that Zubr had sent out nearly 60,000 SMS messages
to Solidarity activists and sympathizers and predicted as
many as 10,000 from throughout Belarus would participate in
the Jeans Fest. (Note: On September 13, Poloff spoke with
Andrey Barbitsky, a youth activist in the northeastern city
of Borisov, who revealed to Poloff that he
and about a dozen activists from the opposition "Za Svobodu"
movement would travel to Minsk to participate in the Jeans
Fest.)


8. (C) In contrast to Atroshchenkov's upbeat prediction,
approximately 2,500 actually participated in the Jeans Fest
and, due to an unexplained power outage in the park during
the event's second half, were left walking home in the dark
(ref D). Furthermore, both Ivashkevich and Milinkevich had
earlier related to us that they expected September 16 to be
the last Day of Solidarity. On October 4, independent media
quoted Milinkevich as warning supporters that mass street
protests should not exceed one every three months because of
possible "degradation" of opposition resources.

But Solidarity Maintains Some Momentum
--------------


9. (C) Although Days of Solidarity may not have the full
backing of the opposition elite, there are those who still

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want to continue the movement. On October 16, authorities in
Minsk detained 15 activists as they held images of Belarusian
political prisoners and the disappeared and attempted to
place lit candles at the memorial to victims of a 1999
stampede that killed 54 people at a Minsk subway station.
Meanwhile, authorities in Brest took 14 activists into
custody for participating in a demonstration in which 25
people with large letters on their chests arranged themselves
on a bridge so that the letters would read "Freedom to
Political Prisoners!" Authorities released all detainees
without charge after recording their passport information.
Atroshchenkov noted to Poloff in August that Zubr activists
were already developing their plans for a large Solidarity
demonstration in November.

Solidarity's Contribution to the Struggle for Change
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Despite Solidarity's apparent disappointments, the
campaign has benefited the Belarusian opposition in two
concrete ways. First, those who participated became points
of contact between grassroots cells of rival opposition youth
organizations. In many cases, such points of contact acted
as conduits for information exchange and cross-organizational
recruitment. On September 27, Sergey Semenyuk, Deputy Chair
of the newly formed BPF youth-wing "BPF Moladz," commented to
Poloff that, while the long-term influence of the Solidarity
campaign remains unknown, the contacts established among
youth organizations through Solidarity would likely remain
the campaign's most profound legacy. Similarly, UCP youth
cell leader Vitaliy Storozhov and two associates recounted to
Poloff on September 1 how they had been activists in the
opposition youth organization "Malady Front" but had recently
joined UCP because of contacts made at a post-election
Solidarity event. Poloff later spoke with Storozhov at the
Jeans Fes
t. He and his associates were wearing "Za Svobodu" T-shirts,
UCP and Solidarity "16" buttons, and Malady Front bandanas.


11. (C) Second, although the Solidarity protests have been
relatively small, they represent the largest continuous
protest effort since the elections and have inspired spin off
movements in other areas of society, including the Belarusian
Free Theater, whose members recently told Charge their plans
to stage productions to commemorate the disappearances on the
16th. Malady Front leader Sergey Bakhun recently observed,
"Many people criticize Solidarity for being too small and
using overly symbolic and predictable tactics. Most of these
people were doing nothing even as they criticized the
campaign. I think the Solidarity movement had an enormous
influence on the Belarusian youth consciousness. Every time
I see a '16,' I think to myself, 'At least somebody was doing
something.'"

Comment
--------------


12. (C) The true breadth and depth of the influence of Days
of Solidarity is difficult to quantify in the absence of
scientific polling data. (Note: Post has asked two prominent
independent pollsters in Belarus to gauge public opinion on
the movement. End note.) However, it is safe to say that
the campaign, though small, has expanded and maintained
relationships among lower-level pro-democracy youth activists
during the opposition's otherwise inactive period immediately
following March's presidential elections. These
relationships should serve the opposition well during local
elections scheduled for January 14.
Moore