INDEPENDENT POLLING: MILINKEVICH SUPPORT RATINGS DECLINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 001117

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLING: MILINKEVICH SUPPORT RATINGS DECLINE

Ref: MINSK 1055

MINSK 00001117 001.2 OF 004



1. Summary: Independent Belarusian pollster Manaev September 25
gave Poloff results of his fifth post election survey conducted in
August. Opposition coalition presidential candidate Milinkevich's
support rating dropped 8.8 points since March to 11.6%, whereas
President Lukashenko's support rating remained at 55%. The
majority of respondents (63.5%) accept Lukashenko's decisions as
president and claim he can be trusted. Sixty-six percent of
respondents believe providing material support/welfare to the
people was more important than implementing democracy and 56%
believe a strong leader provided more to citizens than good laws.
Fifty-five percent of respondents admitted they were often or
always afraid to express their political opinions in public. Most
respondents (79%) do not want a union with Russia at the expense of
Belarus' independence, although many would sacrifice Belarus'
independence for an improved economy. End summary.


2. Independent polling service (IISEPS) director Oleg Manaev
presented Poloff the fifth of six opinion polls conducted on August
15-25 (Ref A). IISEPS interviewed 1515 people in the August
polling. The margin of error was 3%.


Milinkevich Ratings Decline
--------------


3. IISEPS' survey results continue to indicate that Lukashenko
received the majority of votes in the March presidential elections
and Milinkevich received approximately 20%. However, fewer
respondents today would vote for Milinkevich as president than they
did during the March elections.

"Whom did you vote for in the 2006 presidential elections?"

March April June August

Lukashenko 64.9(%) 63.1 61.9 55.5
Milinkevich 21.4 18.8 19.9 20.4
Kozulin 5.0 7.3 5.9 4.8
Gaidukevich 2.2 5.2 3.3 3.0

"If elections were tomorrow, whom would you vote for?"

April June August

Lukashenko 60.3(%) 54.3 55.5
Milinkevich 18.4 13.6 11.6
Kozulin 3.7 3.7 3.2


Lukashenko Leadership Satisfactory
--------------


4. Approximately 50% of the respondents voted for the 2004
referendum allowing Lukashenko unlimited terms as President. When
asked why they would repeatedly vote for Lukashenko, the
respondents answered as follows [Respondents allowed to choose
three responses]:

He fulfills his duties and not necessary to replace him 29.8(%)
No other suitable candidate 22.4
He worries about people like me 20.6
Afraid that it would be worse with another president 17.9
He is moving toward a union with Russia 12.0
I personally like him 9.9
He defends us from the West 8.1

Those who would not vote for Lukashenko (23.8%) answered as follows
[Respondents allowed to choose three responses]:

He has already demonstrated all that he is capable of 13.2(%)
I am tired of him 11.8
His participation in the elections was illegal 11.5
He is leading Belarus to disaster 10.5
He had a fallout with the West 9.4
He is not fulfilling his promises 8.8
He exhausted his possibilities 7.8
There are more suitable politicians 7.0


5. Sixty percent of respondents trust Lukashenko. When asked why,
respondents answered:

He successfully solves the country's problems 31.6(%)
No one else can solve the country's problems 16.4
He will hopefully solve Belarus' future problems 13.2
Other reasons 1.7

"Do you accept the actions of."

MINSK 00001117 002.2 OF 004



"Lukashenko" "the government"

Yes, without question 29.5(%) 21.0
Yes, more or less 34.0 34.8
No, more or less 18.3 20.9
No, without question 13.9 16.1

"In your opinion, what qualities are characteristic of the current
Belarusian government (respondents can choose more than one
answer)?"

Close to the people 30.4(%)
Bureaucratic 25.5
Strong and firm 23.6
Legitimate 23.1
Criminal and corrupt 20.3
Honest and open 16.9
Effective 13.3
Unprofessional 12.8
Educated, intellectual 11.8
Distant from people 10.8
Competent 9.9


6. Forty-nine percent of those polled believe Lukashenko's and his
government's arbitrary rule has decreased over the years, but many
recognize that they rely heavily on security forces to preserve
their rule.

"In your opinion, whom does Lukashenko rely on [Note: respondents
allowed to choose three responses]?"

Military, Ministry of the Interior, BGKB 48.6(%)
Pensioners 41.4
Presidential "vertical" 37.0
Simple people 34.2
Villagers 30.0
Government officials 20.5


Democracy Takes Backseat to a Strong Leader
--------------


7. Sixty-six percent of those polled agree that material welfare
should be provided to citizens before Belarus should even consider
democracy. In addition, 56.2% of respondents believe a strong
leader can give the country more than can good laws.

"In your opinion, what is more necessary for the country [Note:
respondents allowed to choose three responses]?"

Strong government 47.2(%)
Strong leader 42.4
Cultural/spiritual revival 26.7
Revival of national traditions 22.5
Democracy 20.5


Political Freedom
--------------


8. The majority of respondents (55.5%) knew that former
presidential candidate Kozulin was sentenced to 5.5 years in
prison. However, the respondent's reactions to Kozulin's
conviction were divided:

"[If you knew of Kozulin's conviction], how do you feel about the
court's decision?"

The verdict was not just 26.6(%)
The verdict was just 24.3
It does not concern me 22.4

"According to the court, Kozulin was convicted of malicious
hooliganism and organizing and participating in group actions that
violated public order. In your opinion, were the court's reasons
for convicting Kozulin sincere?"

Kozulin's conviction was politically motivated 41.6(%)
I agree with the court's reasons 33.0

"What moves should be made against people and groups whose opinions
and activities you do not agree with?"

Allow them to carry out activities within the law 51.8(%)
Ban their activities 26.6
Limit public actions and meetings 13.8
Limit their access to the media 13.0


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"Are you ready to openly express your political opinions?"

I am never afraid 41.9(%)
Sometimes afraid 35.5
Often afraid 22.0


Russian Union
--------------


9. According to IISEPS, 45.4% of respondents would vote for the
Belarus-Russian Union if a referendum were held today and 34% would
not. The vast majority of those polled (78.5%) are not in favor of
Belarus' integration with Russia should it mean the loss of
Belarus' independence or sovereignty. Although Belarusians prefer
other relationships with Russia than full integration, many would
make concessions if it meant economic development.

"What relationship between Belarus and Russia do you prefer?"

Neighborly relations of two independent governments 41.4(%)
Union of independent governments 41.5
Formation of one government 14.8

"If a referendum is held on the Constitution act of the Belarus-
Russian Union, how would you vote?"

For 44.4(%)
Against 27.8

"What is more important - improving Belarus' economic situation or
preserving Belarus' independence?"

Improving economic situation 48.5(%)
Preserving independence 41.9

"If the referendum results called for Belarus to become part of the
Russian Federation, how would you respond?"

Agree with the results because they cannot be changed 35.8(%)
Protest/demonstrate to change the results 8.8
Move to another country 3.4
Ready to defend Belarus' independence with weapons 2.4
No answer 49.6

"If a presidential position was created for Russia and Belarus, who
would you vote for?"

Lukashenko 43.5(%)
Putin 22.5
Milinkevich 1.5

"If there was a referendum tomorrow on the integration of Belarus
into the EU, how would you vote?"

Against 41.3(%)
For 36.5



10. Standard of Living
--------------

"In your opinion, how has Belarus' economic situation changed in
the last year?"

Improved 37.5(%)
Not changed 45.8
Worsened 12.5

"How will Belarus' social-economic situation change in the coming
years?"

Improve 40.8(%)
No change 36.2
Worsen 12.0

"In your opinion, how do people live in neighboring countries
[compared to Belarusians]?"

Better Same Worse
-------------- -------------- --------------
Latvia 34.1(%) 23.3 21.9
Lithuania 33.1 25.0 21.9
Poland 46.2 22.5 14.9
Russia 21.1 44.6 23.6
Ukraine 8.4 29.3 50.6



11. Information

MINSK 00001117 004.3 OF 004


--------------

"How often do you watch the following TV channels?"

Everyday Often Rarely
-------------- -------------- --------------
ONT (BYR) 50.9(%) 32.1 13.1
RTR (Rus) 37.5 42.6 16.7
NTV (Rus) 35.0 39.0 21.3
ORT (Rus) 30.0 35.7 30.3
BT (BYR) 37.5 40.2 16.4
Cable TV 18.9 27.5 40.6
Local TV 13.7 42.1 34.2
TV-6 (Rus) 8.7 33.0 47.8
Satellite TV 8.7 25.9 53.5

"How often do you listen to the following radio stations?"

FM (BE, Alfa,
Radio-roks) 27.6(%) 27.1 40.9
GOB radio 24.1 18.3 49.1
Local radio 12.2 14.6 63.8
Russian radio 5.6 14.4 67.8
Radio Liberty
(Belarusian) 4.3 11.4 73.7
(Russian) 2.2 9.9 77.3
Western radio 2.5 8.1 78.3

"Do you use the internet?"

Everyday 5.8(%)
Several times per week 8.0
Several times per month 9.0
Several times per year 4.5
No 66.4

"If you use the internet, where do you have access?"

At work/school 8.5(%)
Home 13.1
Internet caf 5.1

"What information source do you trust the most?"

TV 52.6(%)
Press 31.7
Personal contacts 27.1
Radio 24.5
Internet 10.8


Comment
--------------


12. The GOB's active propaganda campaign and blockade of
independent media is successfully convincing Belarusians that
Lukashenko's strong hand and government can provide a better life
than democracy. However, the respondents' responses to many of the
polling questions, including their feeling of powerlessness in
reversing referendum results, indicate that they understand the
Belarusian "paradise" has come at the expense of their political
rights as citizens.

MOORE