Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK1116
2006-10-17 03:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 16,

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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R 170314Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5221
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001116 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 16,
2006


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001116

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 16,
2006



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by
Embassy Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ELECTIONS
--------------

- Opposition Parties Agree on Campaign Cooperation (para. 2)
- Authorities Approves Election Deadlines, Restrict Media (para. 3)

CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------

- Lower Chamber Approves Bill against "Extremism" (para. 4)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
--------------

- Belarus Ends Pornography Case against Latvian Diplomat (para. 5)
- Minsk Criticizes NATO PA Seminar on Belarus (para. 6)

TRADE AND INVESTMENT
--------------

- Russian Oil Supplier Cuts Crude by One Third (para. 7)
- Joint Venture to Invest USD 30 Million for Oil Rack (para. 8)

DOMESTIC ECONOMICS
--------------

- Belarus' International Reserves Down 10.1 Percent (para. 9)
- Belarus' Consumer Price Index Up 0.2 Percent (para. 10)

- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 11)

--------------
Elections
--------------


2. Opposition Parties Agree on Campaign Cooperation

At an October 11 meeting, the main opposition parties and several
NGOs agreed to coordinate their campaigns for local elections,
scheduled for January 14. The heads of the Belarusian Popular
Front, the United Civic Party (UCP),the Belarusian Party of
Communists, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada," the
Belarusian Women's Party "Nadezhda," the Malady Front youth
organization, and other groups agreed that the elections were
unlikely to be free. Nevertheless, they concurred on the need to
use the campaign for promoting the opposition platform and expect
to field about 850 candidates in the elections. In addition, the
parties resolved to coordinate election observations and legal
assistance to candidates and activists repressed by the government.
The opposition leaders also called upon their parties' local
chapters to participate in the formation of election commissions.


3. Authorities Approve Election Deadlines, Restrict Media

On October 12, Belarus' Central Election Commission approved a

series of deadlines for the January 14 local elections, including
the formation of local election commissions, candidate nomination
and registration, electioneering and vote counting. The commission
also adopted a directive that formed a supervisory council that
will oversee media coverage of the coming local elections and
campaign ads placed by candidates. The GOB excluded independent
media from the supervisory council.

--------------
Civil Society
--------------


4. Lower Chamber Approves Bill against "Extremism"

On October 11, the lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament House
passed a bill aimed at preventing and combating "extremism." The
draft law defines extremism as efforts by Belarusian and foreign
individuals and organizations, including political parties and
religious groups, to plan, finance, and/or commit acts aimed at the
violent change of the "constitutional order," the establishment of
illegal armed groups, and the conducting of terrorist activities.
The bill would empower authorities to prosecute individuals and
suspend organizations after two official warnings within a year. A
suspended organization would be banned from using media outlets,
organizing mass events and carrying out financial activities.
Moreover, the draft law would ban the printing and distribution of
extremist materials through media outlets. Deputy BKGB Chairman
Vasiliy Dementey described the bill as a "usual international
practice" in "almost every country concerned about its security."


MINSK 00001116 002 OF 003


--------------
International Relations
--------------


5. Belarus Closes Pornography Case against Latvian Diplomat

On October 10, Belarusian television reported that the GOB had
closed its criminal case against a Latvian diplomat in Belarus.
Belarusian authorities opened the case against the diplomat in July
for allegedly distributing pornography following a police raid of
his Minsk apartment. In August, state television aired sexually
explicit video footage shot with a hidden camera in the diplomat's
apartment in clear violation of the terms of the Vienna Convention.
The diplomat in question departed Belarus in August and is not
expected to return.


6. Minsk Criticizes NATO PA Seminar on Belarus

On October 12, Belarusian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Andrey
Popov criticized the October 13-24 NATO Parliamentary Assembly (PA)
Seminar on Belarus in Vilnius on the grounds that "Minsk has always
opposed the discussion of Belarus' problems abroad without Belarus'
proper participation." Seminar participants included the 25
members of the Assembly, representatives of Belarus' opposition
forces, NATO and EU officials, diplomats, and independent analysts,
who discussed developments in Belarus since its fraudulent March 19
presidential elections. Belarus' status of associate member in the
NATO PA was suspended in 1997 because of the increasingly
undemocratic activities of the Lukashenko regime. On March 25,
2006, the Standing Committee of the NATO PA adopted a declaration
that strongly condemned human rights violations and called upon
NATO members "to actively support the democratic forces and promote
the development of civil society in Belarus."

--------------
Trade and Investment
--------------


7. Russian Oil Supplier Cuts Crude by One Third

On October 9, independent media reported that Russia plans to
reduce crude oil supplies to Belarus by 1.5 million tons during
October to December. Russia's oil transport company Transneft
originally planned to supply 4.5 million tons to Belarus in the
period but announced it could not meet its target. In late
September, Belarusian refineries had to reduce processing due to
short supplies. For example, the Mozyr-based refinery processed
only 14,000 tons of crude oil per day in early October, down from
23,500 tons. Russian and Belarusian negotiators remain at odds
over how to calculate and distribute oil product duties.


8. Joint Venture to Invest USD 30 Million for Oil Loading Rack

On October 12, a joint Belarusian-Russian venture between the
Russian joint stock company NK RussNeft and Belarus' state-owned
oil-producing monopoly Belorusneft announced plans to invest USD 30
million to construct an oil loading rack in the southeastern city
of Mozyr. The loading rack will have a capacity of 7 million tons
annually. In 2005, the joint venture "RussNeft" opened an export
terminal near the Belarusian border with an annual capacity of 5
million tons, which may be extended to 7 million tons after gaining
permission to exceed the crude supplies quota set by Russia's
Transneft. RussNeft also plans to build an oil loading rack in the
southeastern city of Rechitsa. Under the venture agreement,
RussNeft will transfer to Belarus without compensation a 25 percent
share in the LLC Oil Company RussNeft-Bryansk, giving Belorusneft
operating control. Belarusian profits from the stake in RussNeft-
Bryansk will be transferred to the GOB budget.

--------------
Domestic Economy
--------------


9. Belarus' International Reserves Down 10.1 Percent

On October 9, sources in the National Bank of Belarus revealed to
independent media that Belarus' international reserves shrank by
10.1 percent to USD 1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2006.
Foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 950.8 million, dropping
14 percent in the first six months, while gold reserves rose by 6.9
percent to USD 203.1 million. In 2005, Belarus' international
reserves reportedly increased by 68.3 percent to USD 1.3 billion.


10. Belarus' Consumer Price Index Up 0.2 Percent

On October 12, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis
reported that Belarus' consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.2
percent in September after a 0.7 percent decrease in August. In
September 2005, consumer prices increased 0.1 percent after
decreasing 0.3 percent the previous month. Prices climbed 3.1

MINSK 00001116 003 OF 003


percent since January 1, less than the 4.6 percent increase from
January to September 2005. Food prices rose 0.3 percent in
September and 1.7 percent from January to September. Meanwhile,
non-food prices went up 0.3 percent after rising 2.9 in the first
nine months. Consumer services prices decreased 0.1 percent in
September, a rise of 6.5 percent since January. The GOB projects
Belarus' inflation to total seven percent in 2006. In 2005, CPI
increased eight percent on the year, a drop from the 14.4 percent
rise in 2004.

--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------


11. While on hunger strike to express solidarity with imprisoned
former opposition presidential candidate Aleskandr Kozulin,
opposition activist Anatol Kulik offered the following appeal to
pro-democracy forces:

"What can one man do? Hunger strike? Yes, he can, but together we
must take larger actions - meetings, pickets, strikes - in order to
let the authorities perceive it as a political force, not the
heroism of individuals."

Moore