Minsk Election Weekly III (December 31 - January 6)

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SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly III (December 31 - January 6)



1. This is the third in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.

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The Campaigns
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2. Expelled BSU Students Not For Kozulin

Independent online news source Charter 97 posted an article on
December 30 criticizing opposition presidential candidate
Aleksandr Kozulin. According to the article, Kozulin's
supporters are having difficulties collecting signatures from
former Belarusian State University (BSU) students who were
expelled for their political activities while Kozulin was BSU
rector. Zubr's press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchankov claimed
Kozulin's initiative group visited his parents' apartment and
accused his mother of being anti-democratic after she refused
to sign the candidate's petition.


3. No Complaints

On January 3, secretary of Belarus' Central Election Commission
(CEC) Nikolai Lozovik claimed that no candidates had submitted
complaints about the signature collection process during the
New Year holiday weekend. Lozovik told reporters that this was
because the candidates abstained from collecting signatures
during the holidays as to not disturb the people's
celebrations.


4. Signature Collection Successful

Ten plus presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich on
January 3 expressed his satisfaction with the start of his
signature collection campaign. Several of the gatherers
collected 70-80 signatures after their first three days, which
shows the "success" of their door-to-door and street campaign.
However, campaign leader Sergei Kalyakin noted that not all
regions had a good start due to poor coordination between
signature gatherers. Kalyakin also informed reporters that
during the New Year, a man dressed as a homeless man was
soliciting signatures in the name of Milinkevich while being
filmed by the state media. Kalyakin called the act the GOB's
attempt to discredit Milinkevich and plans to ask the Minsk
prosecutor to open an investigation into the incident.


5. Gaidukevich and Voitovich Collect 20,000 Signatures

On January 4, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and MP
Sergei Gaidukevich announced that he had gathered 20,000
signatures for his nomination as a presidential candidate
without GOB interference. Gaidukevich attributed his success
to the popularity he received from his 2001 run for president
and his campaign's human and organizational resources. Former
MP Aleksander Voitovich announced on Radio Liberty that he had
gathered 15,000-18,000 signatures.

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Election Commissions
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6. The Makeup of Election Commissions

On December 30, Lozovik announced that political party
representatives accounted for 2.6 percent of the members of
territorial election commissions. The CEC formed 165
territorial election commissions consisting of 2,124 members;
roughly 13 people per commission. Six out of 17 political
parties have members in the commissions. These parties include
the Communist Party of Belarus, the Liberal Democratic Party,
the Social Sports Party, the Republican Party of Labor and
Justice, the Belarusian Popular Front, and the Agrarian Party.
According to Lozovik, 20 percent of the commissions' members
represent NGOs and were nominated by the pro-government
Belarusian National Youth Union, trade unions, and women's
associations. All of these groups, except the BPF, are pro-
Lukashenko. Forty-five percent of the commissions' members
were nominated via the collection of signatures and 23 percent
by workers' collectives. Roughly ten percent of the members are
local government or city council officials, 30 percent are
employed in the manufacturing, transport/trade, and
construction sectors, 22.7 percent - civil servants, 12 percent
- educators, 7 percent - farmers, and 1.5 percent - law
enforcement officers.


7. Brest Election Commissions

Aleksandr Koleda, chairman of the Brest regional election
commission, announced on December 30 that the CEC formed 22
territorial election commissions in the Brest region with 284
members. Ten members are representatives from the Communist
Party of Belarus, one from the Liberal Democratic Party, 17
from the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus, 15 from the
Belarusian National Youth Union, four from veterans'
associations and two from the Belarusian Women's Union. All of
these groups are pro-Lukashenko. Koleda claimed that the main
qualifying criterion for becoming a member of the election
commissions was previous participation in election campaigns,
which 90 percent of the members met. Twenty-eight commissions
were formed in the Gomel region, 29 in the Vitebsk region, 21
in the Grodno region, 27 in the Minsk region, 28 in the
Mogilyov region, and 10 in the city of Minsk.


8. Opposition Opposes CEC Commission Results

Leader of the Belarusian Party of Communists and chair of 10+
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign Sergei Kalyakin
accused the authorities of trying to conduct a nontransparent
and unfair presidential election. According to Kalyakin, only
one out of the 2,124 territorial commission members represented
a pro-democratic party, the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF).
Kalyakin's party allegedly nominated 70 people and the United
Civic Party (UCP) nominated 38, but none were selected.
According to UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko, the commissions are
proof that the GOB does not plan to hold free elections. Head
of the BPF legal department, Vladimir Labkovich, called the
incident a recurrence of the 2001 presidential race and the
2004 parliamentary elections.


9. Only Election Commissions and Trade Unions Use Donations

On January 3, Lukashenko signed a decree allowing trade unions
and electoral commissions to use donated funds. In December,
the President signed amendments to Decree 300 that granted
institutions and private entrepreneurs permission to give
funds, property, and ownership rights to trade unions and their
branches and election commissions. Trade unions and NGOs,
except political parties, have the right to give their members
welfare benefits in the form of money and property, as long as
its value does not exceed USD 135. Trade unions can use
gratuitous aid for health and recreational activities.

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Harassment
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10. A Six-Hour Detainment

Beloozyorsk police on December 29 detained Vladimir Kozeko,
regional head of Milinkevich's campaign team, in the Ivanovo
district for six hours. Kozeko arrived in Beloozyorsk to receive
CEC-issued IDs for members of Milinkevich's team who would be
collecting ballot-access signatures. As Kozeko was leaving town,
police officers stopped him, ransacked his car, and seized 800
copies of the independent newspaper Narodnaya Volya. After
spending six hours at the local police station, Kozeko was
released, but the newspapers were not returned. Yury Gubarevich,
head of Milinkevich's Brest campaign team, linked Kozeko's
detention to President Lukashenko's December 30 visit to the city.


11. 2005 A "Tough" Year

Youth activist Boris Goretsky on December 30 commented that 2005
was a "tough and active" year for Belarus' opposition youth
movements. According to Goretsky, the police and secret service
watched socially and politically active youths more closely and
many were jailed and/or expelled from school. Young opposition
activists successfully staged several protests despite the
oppression and the arrests of prominent figures, such as Malady
Front leader Pavel Severinets. Goretsky stated that the youth were
actively involved in the pro-democratic effort to select and
promote a challenger to Lukashenko in March.


12. Social Unrest Possible

Goretsky on January 3 predicted that the GOB's oppressive policies
might cause social unrest in 2006. The amendments to the Criminal
Code, the increased control of the internet, the closure of
independent media, and the persecution of activists could lead to
tensions ahead of the March presidential elections. Goretsky
opined that many youth activists were ready to defend their rights
and vote against Lukashenko. According to Goretsky, more people
were joining youth groups and several new chapters have appeared in
small towns. The activist claimed that falsified elections could
result in unpredictable consequences.

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Miscellaneous
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13. Use Belarusian Please!

On January 2, leader of the Francisak Skaryna Belarusian
Language Society (BLS) Oleg Trusov urged all presidential
candidates to use the Belarusian language in their campaigns.
According to Trusov, the BLS would speak out against any
attempts to reduce the use of Belarusian in favor of Russian.


14. No Coup d'Etat Within GOB

During a January 4 interview, Voitovich commented that he did
not believe an active opposition block existed among the
nomenclature. He claimed that he has friends within the GOB
who would like to see a change of government, but a coup d'etat
was impossible. According to Voitovich, this was due to lack
of strength within the country to oppose and change the
government and that no opposition leader was strong enough to
lead the country. The nomenclature knows this, and therefore,
prefers to provide for their families rather than lose their
jobs.

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Quotes of the Week
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15. Head of the BPF's legal department Vladimir Labkovich's
response to the results of the territorial commissions and the
lack of opposition representation:

"In these conditions it is impossible to monitor the voting
process, it would be [more] logical for the authorities to
immediately declare Lukashenko the winner rather than conduct
the election at all."


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