Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MINSK108
2006-02-03 09:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Minsk Election Weekly VII (January 28-February 3)

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL BO 
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VII (January 28-February 3)


UNCLAS MINSK 000108

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VII (January 28-February 3)



1. This is the seventh in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.


--------------
Signature Results
--------------


2. After a month of signature collection, the CEC announced the
following results:

Lukashenko 1,905,631 signatures
Milinkevich 198,559
Kozulin 156,618
Gaidukevich 150,319
Frolov 58,775
Paznyak 719

The CEC is currently checking the signatures for authenticity
and will announce between February 16 and 19 who the candidates
are.


3. Milinkevich's campaign manager, Sergey Kalyakin, told the
press on January 28 that Lukashenko should be barred from the
campaign for multiple irregularities during signature
collection. Kalyakin claimed state enterprises, organizations,
schools and universities, and police departments were forced to
submit signatures from employees and students. [Comment: Post
has heard similar accusations from numerous reliable sources.]


--------------
The Candidates
--------------

And then there were Four


4. On January 26, Zenon Paznyak, leader of the Christian
Conservative Party, announced he would drop out of the
presidential race. Even though he claimed his party had
collected more than 100,000 signatures, he did not think the
Central Election Commission (CEC) would allow his registration
as a candidate. Instead, Paznyak is advocating that voters
cast fake ballots, then present their real ballots to
opposition groups as a means of judging how many vote against
Lukashenko. Thus leaves four possibly candidates, Lukashenko,
Gaidukevich, Milinkevich and Kozulin.

Lukashenko President Enough for Belarus


5. In a January 27 interview to state television, Lukashenko argued
to the press why Belarus needs no other president: "I'm fighting
disasters to save our people and prove during this election
campaign, prove yet another time that you have a good president and
don't need any other president. Even during the severe freeze this
year there were fewer breakdowns and less disorder than in previous
years when temperatures did not drop as low. What does that speak
of? That means that the government is busy solving people's vital

problems. We created an independent, sovereign state. What else do
we need? And this sovereign, independent state, the state's people
elected a president and the president is working for the benefit of
the people. He is battling troubles and hardships that can befall
our country." Exaggerating the threat of a windy day in August
that blew down trees around Minsk, he claimed, "We might have been
left without bread, and $140 million would not have been enough to
import grain. We would have had to use foreign exchange and gold
reserves to save people, but we salvaged the crop. We saved the
country. We can see milk, meat, butter, fats, etc., on the counters
today. Because grain also means feed, not just bread. We salvaged
the crop. This speaks about the efficiency of the government."

Limited Cooperation Possible


6. On January 27, Kozulin sent a letter to Milinkevich
suggesting they support each other in the event one does not
get registered as a candidate. He also proposed the two work
together to monitor the campaign and elections.

Frolov Supports Kozulin


7. After dropping out of the race, on February 1 Valery Frolov
threw his support behind Kozulin. Frolov said he supports
Kozulin because both belong to the same social-democratic
party. On January 26, jailed presidential hopeful Sergey
Skrebets also announced his support for Kozulin. In the
previous parliament, Frolov and Skrebets were both members of
the Respublika faction.

No Need to Stay in Belarus


8. Over the past week, three of the four likely candidates
traveled abroad. Milinkevich was in Brussels January 30 to
February 1, where he met with members of the European
parliament, Head of the European Commission Jose Barroso, EU
External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU
foreign policy chief Javier Solana, and Ukraine's Yulia
Tymoshenko and FM Boris Tarasyuk. On February 2 he stopped in
Berlin to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel. Prior to Brussels he
spoke at a session of the Council of Europe's Parliamentary
Assembly in Strasbourg. Meanwhile, Kozulin traveled to
Lithuania to meet Prime Minister Brazauskas. On February 1,
Lukashenko went to Moscow for Boris Yeltsin's birthday party.
This followed a trip to St. Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin
last week.


--------------
Media Issues
--------------

Election Gets Little Press


9. Many observers have told Post state media has largely
ignored the presidential election. There are no advertisements
or other visible signs of an impending election in Minsk. On
February 2, the Belarusian Association of Journalists confirmed
this observation. BAJ announced that from January 16 to 27,
the deadline for submitting signatures, state television
channel ONT dedicated just over one minute to election
coverage. Instead, state television covered heavily
Lukashenko's daily work and activities. [Comment: there is
next to no independent Belarusian television.] After
monitoring all state media, BAJ stated that Lukashenko gets far
more coverage than all of the other candidates, election
observers and the Central Election Commission combined. Post
has observed that state media rarely names opposition
candidates, instead referring to them simply as "the
opposition" or "nationalists."

Lukashenko and Kozulin Dominate the Papers


10. BAJ also monitored coverage of candidates in state and
independent newspapers from January 16 to 27. The main state
newspaper, Sovietskaya Belorussiya, devoted 80% of its election
coverage to Lukashenko, and 0.7% to Milinkevich and Paznyak.
Other state papers only covered Lukashenko. No other
candidates received any coverage. [Note: Sovietskaya
Belarussiya is Belarus' largest newspaper, and is part of the
Presidential Administration.] Independent paper Narodnaya
Volya gave 18.7% of its entire reporting to Kozulin, 13% to
Lukashenko, and 2.4% to Milinkevich. Independent paper
Komsomolskaya Pravda devoted 31% of its election coverage to
Kozulin, 13% to Skrebets (who had dropped out by that point),
4.6% to Lukashenko and 2.2% to Milinkevich. However,
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the largest independent newspaper,
carried a lengthy interview with Milinkevich on February 2.

Papers Seized


11. On January 30, police in Zhlobin seized 700 copies of
Tovarisch, the newspaper of the pro-democracy Communist Party
(who support Milinkevich). The papers contained information on
Milinkevich and were seized when police stopped the vehicle
carrying them en route to Gomel. Tovarisch's editor complained
to the police, claiming his paper is legally registered.

Russian Pop Stars for Lukashenko


12. State television channel ONT announced it would host a six-
week series of concerts featuring unnamed Russian pop stars,
culminating in a massive concert in Minsk on March 10 (four
days before the start of early voting). ONT has named the
concert series "Za Belarus" [For Belarus], the same slogan
Lukashenko used for his publicity campaign in favor of the 2004
referendum removing presidential term limits, and is using
again on billboards across the city.

--------------
Biased Polling
--------------

Presidential Administration Says 76.7% to Vote for Lukashenko


13. On February 2, the Institute for Social-Political Research
of the Presidential Administration announced the results of a
poll it conducted across the country, with 1,583 respondents.
The main results are:

--76.7% will vote for Lukashenko;

--No other candidate received more than 2% (the GOB did not
release any more detailed results);

--87.5% rate Lukashenko's work as positive (52.9%) or mostly
positive (34.6%);

--88.3% says Lukashenko is fulfilling his electoral promises,
while "only 3%" say he is not;

--94.3% say it is important who is chosen as the next
president;

--89.2% believe their quality of life depends on who is
elected;

--92.1% intend to participate in the elections;

--43.5% say the elections will be fully free, transparent and
open; 45.9% think there will be minor violations, but these
will not affect the outcome; and 5.9% think there will be major
violations.


--------------
Anti-Western Propaganda of the Week
--------------

"West to Fund Street Riots"


14. In a January 27 interview with all three state television
channels, Lukashenko said the opposition was likely to engage in
street protests after the elections, "They will contest [their
defeat] the way they never did before. Why? Because they've got
money. They are paid money for street riots. Our "friends" in the
West told the opposition that they would provide money only to fund
unrest in the country. But you know, there are few fools even among
the opposition, among those who support other candidates. They have
children, families, they are living in this society, they won't all
flee abroad. Those who manage this process, who currently oppose
the president, the opposition's contender, have already secured a
place for themselves, maybe in Germany, maybe in America, maybe in
Poland following in the footsteps of some famous opposition
figures. They will flee from here. But there are people who
believe. And will they take to the streets as cannon fodder and
defend others' interests, being aware that while these will flee,
they will have to stay? Do those who currently back the opposition,
sincerely back and believe them need riots, instability? No."
To prevent rioting, Lukashenko said the government would "twist the
heads off" anyone taking to the streets. He added, "We have no
such squares where tents will be put up. I guarantee this."


--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------


15. Lukashenko in a January 27 interview to all three
Belarusian state television channels on the election campaign:

"I do not need to compete with anyone. I must work. The
people want me to work. It has been extremely cold for ten
days. These were the ten days of my political campaign.
Imagine if everything began to freeze, break, and the whole
country began to thunder. How would the people react? I have
just adopted a different tactic. I just work."

KROL