BELARUSIAN YOUTH ACTIVELY WORKING, JUST NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001074

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF BO
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN YOUTH ACTIVELY WORKING, JUST NOT
TOGETHER

REF: A. MINSK 1061


B. MINSK 1018

C. MINSK 1062

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Belarusian youth groups have redirected
their attention away from post-election stagnation to
resuming activities to bring about change in Belarus. Some
are actively preparing for the January 2007 local elections,
while others are focusing on distributing information,
providing legal assistance to harassed youth, increasing
activism and awareness through demonstrations, and
establishing support networks at home and abroad. Despite a
proposal for the creation of a youth coalition to unite youth
groups and parties, genuine cooperation seems unlikely,
especially in Minsk, as each organization is consumed with
its own priorities. Nonetheless, it is encouraging to see
the youth actively working to promote change in Belarus. End
Summary.

Local Elections a Priority for One, Dismissed by Others
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Deputy head of the newly formed youth wing of the
Belarusian Popular Front (BPFM) party Sergey Semenuk told
Poloff on September 27 that his organization's first priority
is the upcoming local elections. BPFM, which was founded on
September 24 and has approximately 500 members nationwide,
plans to support the United Democratic Forces' (UDF) plans
for the local elections in addition to nominating 50 youth
candidates to run in the elections.


3. (C) However, head of youth group Third Way (TW) Pavel
Morosev advised against youth participation in local
elections because he believes that elections are not an
effective tool to promote change in a political environment
where the outcome is pre-determined. During a meeting with
Poloff on September 14, Morosev cited current election and
media laws as nearly insurmountable obstacles for opposition
candidates. Morosev noted that the only benefit of the
elections was the possibility to promote independent ideas,
but stressed that elections were not necessary to achieve
this goal.


4. (C) Press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchenkov from the youth
organization formerly known as Zubr recently told Poloffs
that his group will also steer clear of the local election
campaign. He explained that participation in rigged
elections would be a waste of resources. However,
Atroshchenkov conceded that the local elections would provide
a good opportunity for the opposition to speak to more people
about the need for democratic change.

Increasing Awareness and Activism Through Demonstrations
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Atroshchenkov told Poloff that his organization, which
was integrally involved in the planning of the one-year
anniversary demonstration of the Days of Solidarity in Minsk
on September 16 (ref B),is planning another "freedom themed"
mass action for November. He predicted that more than 10,000
people will participate in this event, which will focus on
displaying solidarity with the repressed and spreading
information about the situation in Belarus. As with the Days
of Solidarity event, the organizers plan to apply for
permission from the authorities to hold the event in an
effort to make it "as legal as possible."

Spreading Information Key to Gaining Youth Support
-------------- --------------


6. (C) BPFM leader Semenuk proposed the creation of a
national newspaper that would appeal to students and working
youth. Each paper would contain a national news core, but
would be supplemented by contributions from local authors
writing about the local issues of the region in which the
newspaper will be distributed. They would use these
newspapers to educate the youth population about the upcoming
local elections and to show their support for political
victims who are repressed and imprisoned by the regime.


7. (C) President of the Association of Belarusian Students
(ABS) Alena Talapila told Poloff on September 19 that ABS
prints a monthly student newspaper that it distributes to
approximately 25,000 students at 10 universities within Minsk
and seven in the regions. This newspaper is written by
students and focuses on issues that are important to young

MINSK 00001074 002 OF 003


people, including politics from the youth point of view.

Working to Promote Internal Change From Outside
-------------- --


8. (C) Other groups are working to promote change in Belarus
by informing the international community and the Belarusian
diaspora abroad about the situation in Belarus. Morosev told
Poloff that TW concentrates its efforts on the Belarusian
diasporas abroad and international community since TW
believes there are enough people already working within
Belarus to promote change in the country. (Note: Most
activists and foreign observers dispute this claim. End
note.) Morosev plans to travel abroad, including to the
U.S., to network with the Belarusian diaspora and to inform
them about the youth and opposition's activities. TW is
simultaneously trying to tap into existing networks in
Belarus, including the flash mob activists and the families
of politically repressed victims. In order to connect the
two groups, TW will also launch an internet project in
November in several languages, including English and German,
that aims to provide an objective analysis of Belarusian
society from the point of view of the yo
uth and a long-term strategy on how to transform Belarus into
a democratic state. The site will also contain links to TW's
media project, which includes satirical cartoons that target
youth audiences.

Legal Problems Distract Active Youth Leaders
--------------


9. (C) Acting Malady Front (MF) leader Sergey Bakhun
explained to Poloff on September 22 that MF would like to
participate in local election campaigns but confessed that
the trials of Dmitriy Dashkevich and others consume the
organization. (Note: Dashkevich and the three other MF
leaders are charged under Article 193 of the Belarusian
Criminal Code, which criminalizes operating an unregistered
organization.)


10. (C) Bakhun also revealed that the BKGB is conducting an
informal investigation on him; he mentioned that BKGB agents
have questioned his contacts about their relationship with
him. Also, despite the short existence of the party, Semenuk
explained that the BKGB has already called in a BPFM member
for questioning.


11. (C) According to ABS President Talapila, ABS is working
with human rights NGO Vyasna to open an office where
persecuted students can seek free legal advice. This office
would also provide training to youth leaders on how to handle
legal issues with the GOB. Bakhun expressed his appreciation
to Poloff that Vyasna offers such legal services, but he
stressed that MF needs legal counsel on an ongoing basis, not
merely ad hoc case by case as NGOs provide.

A Youth Version of the United Democratic Forces?
-------------- ---


12. (C) Semenuk hopes to form a youth coalition with a
structure similar to the UDF, to unite the youth wings of all
the major parties and active youth groups seeking change in
Belarus. Semenuk told Poloff on September 27 that BPFM has
already entered into negotiations with several other youth
parties and groups, but he noted that cooperation among youth
groups and youth parties is better in the regions than within
Minsk. (Note: This analysis reflects existing dynamics
within the UDF; i.e., cooperation is better in the regions
than in Minsk (ref A). End note.) Still, Semenuk will host
a round-table in Minsk with leaders of youth groups and
parties to discuss the possibility of forming a coalition
sometime in October. (Note: UCP youth leader Kirill Ignatik
told Poloffs on September 29 that past attempts to form a
united youth front have failed for lack of ideas for joint
actions. He mentioned that cooperation among youth was best
around the time of the presidential elections but is
practically nonexisten
t now. End note.)

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) While some areas of cooperation exist, youth groups
and parties are generally focusing on their own goals and
priorities. If all the groups and parties were working in a
coordinated fashion, they would have the makings of a more
formidable opposition coalition effort - information
distribution, election campaigns, youth activism,

MINSK 00001074 003 OF 003


demonstrations, and international networks and attention.
However, each group has limitations blocking cooperation.
There may be hope for better cooperation among youth in the
regions, but like the UDF, it seems that sustained unity in
Minsk is a distant goal (ref C). Regardless, it is
encouraging to see the youth actively working to promote
change in Belarus.
Stewart