OPPOSITION LEADERS ADMIT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001062

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
VILNIUS PLEASE PASS TO AMBASSADOR STEWART

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS ADMIT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION,
BUT DEMOCRATIC COALITION "NOT DEAD"

REF: A. MINSK 1061


B. VILNIUS 879

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Charge met separately September 29 at the Embassy
with Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) leaders Vintsuk
Vyachorka and Anatoliy Lebedko to discuss the state of the
united opposition (ref A). Both Vyachorka and Lebedko stated
that while as before there were differences of opinion, the
coalition was holding together, that they and others were
committed to holding it together, and that despite reports to
the contrary matters would not deteriorate further. In the
separate meetings, they sounded a number of similar themes:
-- the UDF leadership (Milinkevich, Lebedko, Kalyakin,
Vyachorka) continues to meet on a regular basis;
-- each UDF leader understands that the collapse of the
coalition would be a victory for the Lukashenko regime;
-- the UDF is working hard (if at different tempos in
different regions of Belarus) to galvanize greater support
for the cause of democracy through upcoming local elections
on Januay 14, 2007;
-- the UDF is planning events to rally support for democracy
on the first year anniversaries of the stolen Presidential
elections (March 19) and the removal of the protestors from
October Square in Minsk (March 25).


2. (C) Vyachorka and Lebedko separately expressed interest
in a second Congress of Democratic Forces, to be held at some
point next year, and both said that the purpose of the
Congress would be to broaden the political base of the
opposition. Vyachorka and Lebedko differed on who might be
added; Vyachorka talked of NGOs, whereas Lebedko is more
interested in including enterpreneurs as well as supporters
of former Presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin (who was
not part of UDF for the March 2006 election, but whose
supporters are working with Lebedko's party and others on the
local elections).

Comment
--------------


3. (C) The strong message on unity that the UDF has received
repeatedly from the USG and others -- most recently from
Speaker Hastert in Vilnius (ref B) -- has clearly been
absorbed. That said, it will be very important for all of
the UDF leaders to stress their "unity" in public fora.
Vyachorka -- who referred to "internal opponents" in the UDF
and the "main opponent" (Lukashenko) -- discussed an idea for
a joint statement that would acknowledge the existence of
differences of opinion among the UDF leadership but confirm
their joint commitment to democracy for Belarus. The next
days and weeks will indicate if that spirit will prevail.
Moore