THE HARD LIFE AND TIMES OF BELARUSIAN THINK TANKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001060

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BO
SUBJECT: THE HARD LIFE AND TIMES OF BELARUSIAN THINK TANKS


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Leaders of the most prominent independent analytical
centers in Belarus recently detailed how a continuing
campaign of repression by the Lukashenko regime has caused
many of their organizations to formally disband. Despite the
pressure, think tank leaders continue working to try to
inform Belarusians about the true state of their country.
The think tankers praised the USG's efforts to break the
regime's stranglehold on public opinion by providing
consistent financial support to independent analytical
centers. End summary.


2. (C) On September 14, Pol/Econ Chief hosted a lunch for
seven leaders of think tanks to solicit their views on the
viability of such organizations under the Lukashenko regime.
Participants included Oleg Manayev, Director of the
Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political
Studies; Yaroslav Romanchuk, Director of the Mises Center;
Valyantsina Trygubovich, Chairperson of Belaruskaya
Perspectyva; Andrey Vardomatsky, Director of the NOVAK Market
and Opinion Research Company; Vladimir Matskevich, Head of
the Agency for Humanitarian Technologies; Aleksandr Potupa,
President of the Belarusian Association of Entrepreneurs; and
Valeriy Fadeyev, Chairman of the Law Initiative NGO. Poloff
met separately with Valeriy Karbalevich of the Strategy think
tank on August 24.

Gone are the (Not Really So) Good Old Days
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3. (C) Manayev described the recent history of think tanks in
Belarus. By 2000 there were two dozen well-established
independent organizations promoting new ideas in fields as
diverse as education, local governance and legal reform. The
overall atmosphere was never especially favorable because the
regime claimed to speak for the entire nation, calling into
question the need for any independent research.


4. (C) The 2004 elections and constitutional referendum
marked a turn for the worst, according to Manayev. Many
think tanks became actively involved in the campaign, leading
to a high-level GOB decision to rein them in. The Belarusian
Idea Factory, an umbrella organization representing
two-thirds of think tanks, came under scrutiny after the
elections and was deregistered. (Note: A court decision in
August upheld the deregistration. End note.)


5. (C) The government has employed varied means to impede
think tanks. Many had their registration revoked or were not
re-registered. (Note: Of those think tanks represented at
the lunch, three were no longer registered and one's
registration was under suspension. End note.) Others have
come under economic pressure. Karbalevich's think tank faces
penalties for claimed back taxes it cannot pay. Vardomatsky
complained the government instructed major clients of his
polling firm to take their business elsewhere. The
government is also considering measures to complicate
independent research. For example, a bill on polling would
destroy the possibility of conducting anonymous opinion
surveys. Also, a law criminalizing spreading
"misinformation" complicates the publishing of data gathered
from anonymous sources.

Underground, but Not Yet Six Feet Under
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6. (C) Unregistered think tanks continue their work, albeit
not without constraints. Trygubovich noted work in the
provinces became especially difficult when her organization
failed to reregister, because state-owned enterprises are the
primary employers, and residents fear that associating with
independent organizations will cost them their jobs. Holding
events in commercial or public venues becomes impossible sans
registration, forcing groups to hold meetings in private
apartments. Trygubovich further commented that the lack of a
registration meant she could only work with people she
already knew and trusted, lessening the opportunity to reach
out to potential new partners.


7. (C) Romanchuk and Potupa offered positive assessments of
the ability to collect information for their research.
Potupa even believed his organization was sometimes
successful in using splits within the government to defend
the rights of business. Matskevich argued if think tanks
ever overcame governmental interference and managed to
significantly influence public opinion, the government would

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resort to personal attacks, including physical assaults if
necessary, on activists. Fadeyev said the government viewed
as especially dangerous any signs of think tanks unifying
their efforts in an association designed to spread
independent ideas.

Comment: Informal Networks to Supplant Registered NGOs?
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8. (C) Far from throwing in the towel, think tank
representatives seem determined to carry on with their
mission even if that means working as private citizens rather
than the heads of legal entities. The necessity for
activists to conduct research and disseminate findings as
individuals rather than as NGOs will present continued
challenges for our efforts to aid civil society. The think
tankers praised the flexibility of the USG in providing
grants to talented individuals with good ideas rather than
insisting on working only with registered institutions, which
are the first to collapse under GOB repression. Conversely,
they noted more rigid EU guidelines often meant that too much
European assistance flowed to relatively tame organizations
the Lukashenko regime allowed to exist because they did not
seriously challenge the status quo.
Stewart