HRDF POLLING CONTINUES, NEW DISTRIBUTOR SUCCESSFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001055

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR DRL/PHD KARA CUMBERLAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BO
SUBJECT: HRDF POLLING CONTINUES, NEW DISTRIBUTOR SUCCESSFUL


Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Dereck Hogan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) This is the third report on implementation of a DRL
grant to provide independent opinion polling in Belarus.
Under the auspices of a DRL Human Rights and Democracy Fund
(HRDF) small grant (ref A),the IISEPS polling service
conducted the fifth of six opinion polls August 15-25 (see
septel for polling results). The final survey is scheduled
for November. Although his polling has proceeded
successfully so far, IISEPS' head Oleg Manayev reported
receiving a second written warning from the prosecutor's
office for conducting polls. He also fears legislation under
consideration by parliament will give the government access
to poll respondents' answers, thereby destroying the
anonymity upon which scientific independent polling is based.


2. (C) As a corollary to the HRDF grant, the Czech government
has provided a grant to support distribution of the IISEPS'
results. Originally this grant was awarded to the Vyasna
human rights NGO. However, Manayev doubted their continued
ability to disseminate the results, and the grant was
transferred to the Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC). The
BPC distributed 100,000 copies of the latest poll results
September 11-18. According to Manayev, the BPC has increased
the percentage of recipients that confirm having received and
read the reports to 75 percent from Vyasna's 67 percent. The
BPC expanded the geographic scope of distribution to 26
cities (versus 11 covered by Vyasna). Manayev hopes that the
BPC will distribute 200,000 copies of the final poll.
Manayev estimates the distribution of 200,000 would mean up
to 2 million Belarusian's might hear of the survey results
through word of mouth.
Stewart