UNDERSECRETARY OF GOVERNMENT DOUBTS NEAR-TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 007067

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PHUM MX
SUBJECT: UNDERSECRETARY OF GOVERNMENT DOUBTS NEAR-TERM
RESOLUTION OF OAXACA CONFLICT

REF: MEXICO 6652

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR ALAN MELTZER, REASONS:1.4 (B/
D)


1. (C) Summary: Undersecretary of Government Abraham Gonzalez
Ulleda discussed the state of dialogue with Oaxaca
protesters, asserted that agitators arrested by the GOM had
received due process and were subsequently released from
federal custody or transferred to state prisons, and
acknowledged that the political fate of Governor Ulises Ruiz
remains the key stumbling block to resolution of the
conflict. Gonzalez said the GOM is working hard to be a
balanced, fair, and stabilizing force in Oaxaca, holding
perpetrators of violence accountable while respecting state
sovereignty. He was more optimistic about the conflict's
resolution in the medium than near term. End summary.


2. (C) Poloff met December 22 with Undersecretary of
Government Abraham Gonzalez Ulleda to discuss the situation
in Oaxaca and prospects for resolution of the six months-old
conflict. Gonzalez, who joins Secretary of Government
Francisco Ramirez Acuna from the state of Jalisco, described
a new approach for dealing with the Oaxaca protest movement
based on dialogue rather than negotiation. (Note: the Fox
administration tried without success to negotiate with the
People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO),which has
continued to demand the removal of Governor Ruiz. End note).
He indicated that dialogue would proceed on a step-by-step
basis determined by the good will of the stakeholders rather
than binding commitments. He explained that the Federal
Preventive Police's (PFP's) decision to withdraw from Oaxaca
City on December 16 was a concession to the protest movement,
but affirmed that agitators charged with violent actions
would not be released, as demanded by the APPO. Dialogue
with the APPO at the federal level is accompanied by a
parallel state reform initiative proposed by Governor Ruiz.


3. (C) Gonzalez said that all detainees who had been sent to
a federal prison in Nayarit following the violent November 25
protests had either been released or transferred to state
prisons; he assured poloff that all those arrested had been
charged under the law, received appropriate medical care, and
access to their families and attorneys. Responding to a
question about allegations from some human rights groups
about abuses, Gonzalez said it was the nature of radical
groups like the APPO to accuse the government of human rights
abuses even when none existed. He added that the GOM is
trying to be balanced in its efforts to stabilize Oaxaca,
investigating accusations of wrongdoing not just by APPO
members but also by supporters of the governor, while also
being careful to respect state sovereignty (he cited the
December 7 PFP raid on Oaxaca ministerial police headquarters
as an example of the GOM's balanced approach). Regarding the
December 4 detention of APPO leader Flavio Sosa in Mexico
City, Gonzalez said that Sosa had not traveled to the capital
for dialogue with the federal government as some press
accounts had indicated.


4. (C) The Undersecretary acknowledged that the key stumbling
block to the conflict's resolution is the APPO's continued
demand that Ruiz leave office and the governor's stubborn
refusal to do so. Gonzalez believed that Ruiz's fate would
most likely be decided on political, rather than legal
grounds, adding that most PRI legislators seemed privately to
want Ruiz to request a long-term leave of absence from office
rather than to continue as a political liability for the
party. Gonzalez told poloff that, although the Oaxaca state
constitution specifies that elections would need to be held
if the governor were to resign before completing three years
in office (which will come in December 2007),a leave of
absence would allow the PRI-dominated state congress to
bypass elections and appoint an interim governor. When asked
what he considered the likelihood that Ruiz would leave
before the end of his six year term, Gonzalez assessed this
would depend on public perceptions of the governor's
credibility. He thought that public support for Ruiz, seldom
strong, had increased among some segments as a result of the
public's growing weariness with the economic and social
damage caused by continued instability and the violence
perpetuated by protesters on November 25.


5. (C) Comment: Undersecretary Gonzalez spoke earnestly about
the GOM's desire to be a balanced, fair, and stabilizing

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force in Oaxaca that reduces violence there while ensuring
respect for state sovereignty. Poloff observed in Gonzalez
dissatisfaction with both the protest movement and Governor
Ruiz, which may reflect a broader impatience among Calderon's
team with the conflicting sides that have polarized Oaxaca
society and failed to find common ground. Gonzalez indicated
that the GOM under President Calderon has little tolerance
for violent agitators and will hold them accountable for
their crimes. He did not seem particularly optimistic about
a quick resolution to the Oaxaca conflict but held more hope
for resolution in the medium term.


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